energy markets

The decarbonisation tipping point? | 14 Oct, 2019

‘tipping point’: the point at which a series of small changes or incidents becomes significant enough to cause a larger, more important change. ...

Gaining an edge: LNG portfolio analysis | 07 Oct, 2019

Commercial evolution of the LNG market has accelerated over the last three years. This is the result of new and more flexible sources of supply.  But ...

European gas storage value is recovering | 30 Sep, 2019

Three structural drivers are tightening the gas flexibility balance across Europe: Rising import dependency: resulting in a reliance on longer &a ...

German & Dutch CCGT value case | 23 Sep, 2019

Between 2005-10 there was a mini boom in CCGT investment in Germany and the Netherlands. These projects reached FID against a backdrop of relatively h ...

Inter-market shock roils power, TTF & JKM | 16 Sep, 2019

In our snapshot column last week we flagged a huge rally in power & gas forward curves. The move was driven by three announcements that surprised ...

Major shifts in German power pricing dynamics | 09 Sep, 2019

Renewable output is growing fast across North West European power markets. Wind & solar output in Germany accounts for more than 30% of demand. In ...

Building a viable battery margin stack | 02 Sep, 2019

We flagged a ‘take off’ in European merchant battery investment as one of our 5 surprises to watch out for in 2019. Investment momentum has been a ...

Asian LNG demand stalls in H1 2019 | 26 Aug, 2019

For several years we have framed the evolution of the LNG market supply & demand balance around one key driver: Asian demand growth. The ability o ...

Evolution of UK balancing flexibility | 20 Aug, 2019

Billions of pounds are being invested in flexible peaking capacity in the UK, as the coal fleet closes and older gas plants retire.  The two dominant ...

Will European gas prices recover or ‘snowplough’? | 15 Jul, 2019

Time for a simple thought experiment.  If you had a ‘one shot’ chance to gaze into a crystal ball and see the evolution of one energy market driv ...

FX movements driving energy prices | 08 Jul, 2019

Global trade & geo-political tensions have been steadily rising this year. For example the US-China trade war (& broader power struggle behind ...

Value drivers for Spanish CCGTs | 01 Jul, 2019

Foreign investor interest in the Spanish power market has ebbed and flowed since deregulation. Over this period, Spain has benefited from substantial ...

Resurgence in UK gas storage value | 24 Jun, 2019

Investment in gas storage, like most energy asset classes, has strong cyclical dynamics.  Storage cycles are reinforced by relatively long project co ...

The relevance of a near zero UK capacity price | 17 Jun, 2019

The latest T-1 UK capacity auction cleared at 0.77 £/kW on Wed last week. That is 87% lower than the last T-1 clearing price (at 6 £/MWh).  77 penc ...

Gas vs coal plant switching practicalities | 10 Jun, 2019

The switching dynamics of European gas for coal plants have never been more important than in 2019.  Falling hub prices are tipping the competitive b ...

Decarbonising European gas: value chain impact | 03 Jun, 2019

Decarbonisation of the European gas market will involve very large scale investment across the supply chain, regardless of the pathway via which it is ...

Decarbonising European gas: 3 pathways | 27 May, 2019

The origins of the European gas market go back to the discovery of large reserves of natural gas, firstly the giant onshore Dutch Groningen field (195 ...

Decarbonising European gas: the risks & options | 20 May, 2019

The COP-21 Paris climate accord marked the beginning of the end for coal in Europe.  Most European countries are taking clear actions to drive coal o ...

Distribution key to ‘weaponising’ demand side | 13 May, 2019

A more dynamic demand side is a key building block of the energy transition. But the ability to achieve this depends strongly on the rapid evolution o ...

Russia, LNG & the next 3 years | 06 May, 2019

European LNG import volumes set another new record in Apr-19, following the previous record set last month. Volumes are up about 230% compared to this ...

Headwinds for UK gas engine margins | 29 Apr, 2019

When the UK capacity market was introduced in 2014, large grid connected CCGTs were anticipated to be the primary provider of new capacity.  Step for ...

Challenging three battery investment ‘myths’ | 15 Apr, 2019

‘Battery storage flexibility is a key building block of a decarbonised power sector.’ This statement is not a myth.  In fact it is almost a tr ...

Power sector setting gas prices in Europe | 08 Apr, 2019

Two European gas market records were broken in March. Both LNG and Russian monthly import volumes surged to their highest levels in history. This has ...

Gas prices plunge towards US LNG shut in levels | 01 Apr, 2019

Off-piste descent for gas prices TTF prices fell by more than 50% across Winter 2018-19.  No... that is not an April Fool’s joke.  The decline ...

The changing role of UK’s gas interconnectors | 25 Mar, 2019

2019 is going to be an important year of transition for the two key interconnectors that link the UK with Continental gas markets. The IUK pipe bet ...