energy markets

The major energy surprises of 2019 | 16 Dec, 2019

As has become tradition, our last article before the Christmas break reviews the major surprises for the year. We do this review in two parts. Firs ...

Hydrogen’s path into the gas supply chain | 09 Dec, 2019

Governments in most of the largest European gas markets are committed to COP21 decarbonisation targets.  Some future targets are likely to be missed. ...

5 chart focus: European gas market | 02 Dec, 2019

2019 has seen a big shake up in the European gas market supply and demand balance.  In today’s article we use 5 charts to summarise the current sta ...

5 chart focus: Continental European power | 25 Nov, 2019

Intermarket linkages are increasingly driving energy asset value and risk.  Market linkages across different commodities are becoming more important ...

Revenue stacks for the ‘big 5’ flexible assets | 18 Nov, 2019

Two key capacity auctions are approaching in Q1 2020 that will shape the UK power market capacity mix into the mid 2020s.  12-14 GW of incremental fl ...

UK capacity market ‘back in play’ | 11 Nov, 2019

The UK capacity market was re-instated two weeks ago. This means the immediate resumption of payments for both on-going and historical capacity provid ...

Valuing European LNG regas capacity | 04 Nov, 2019

European regas capacity is back & flashing on the commercial radar screen. The obvious explanation for this is a jump in terminal utilisation over ...

Charter rate surge shakes LNG market | 28 Oct, 2019

LNG vessel spot charter rates have exploded since late September. If you are not in the business of chartering boats you may be tempted by an obvious ...

LNG market evolution in 5 charts | 21 Oct, 2019

Several key structural market trends are reshaping the way that LNG is transacted. The US has emerged as a key provider of destination flexible sup ...

The decarbonisation tipping point? | 14 Oct, 2019

‘tipping point’: the point at which a series of small changes or incidents becomes significant enough to cause a larger, more important change. ...

Gaining an edge: LNG portfolio analysis | 07 Oct, 2019

Commercial evolution of the LNG market has accelerated over the last three years. This is the result of new and more flexible sources of supply.  But ...

European gas storage value is recovering | 30 Sep, 2019

Three structural drivers are tightening the gas flexibility balance across Europe: Rising import dependency: resulting in a reliance on longer &a ...

German & Dutch CCGT value case | 23 Sep, 2019

Between 2005-10 there was a mini boom in CCGT investment in Germany and the Netherlands. These projects reached FID against a backdrop of relatively h ...

Inter-market shock roils power, TTF & JKM | 16 Sep, 2019

In our snapshot column last week we flagged a huge rally in power & gas forward curves. The move was driven by three announcements that surprised ...

Major shifts in German power pricing dynamics | 09 Sep, 2019

Renewable output is growing fast across North West European power markets. Wind & solar output in Germany accounts for more than 30% of demand. In ...

Building a viable battery margin stack | 02 Sep, 2019

We flagged a ‘take off’ in European merchant battery investment as one of our 5 surprises to watch out for in 2019. Investment momentum has been a ...

Asian LNG demand stalls in H1 2019 | 26 Aug, 2019

For several years we have framed the evolution of the LNG market supply & demand balance around one key driver: Asian demand growth. The ability o ...

Evolution of UK balancing flexibility | 20 Aug, 2019

Billions of pounds are being invested in flexible peaking capacity in the UK, as the coal fleet closes and older gas plants retire.  The two dominant ...

Will European gas prices recover or ‘snowplough’? | 15 Jul, 2019

Time for a simple thought experiment.  If you had a ‘one shot’ chance to gaze into a crystal ball and see the evolution of one energy market driv ...

FX movements driving energy prices | 08 Jul, 2019

Global trade & geo-political tensions have been steadily rising this year. For example the US-China trade war (& broader power struggle behind ...

Value drivers for Spanish CCGTs | 01 Jul, 2019

Foreign investor interest in the Spanish power market has ebbed and flowed since deregulation. Over this period, Spain has benefited from substantial ...

Resurgence in UK gas storage value | 24 Jun, 2019

Investment in gas storage, like most energy asset classes, has strong cyclical dynamics.  Storage cycles are reinforced by relatively long project co ...

The relevance of a near zero UK capacity price | 17 Jun, 2019

The latest T-1 UK capacity auction cleared at 0.77 £/kW on Wed last week. That is 87% lower than the last T-1 clearing price (at 6 £/MWh).  77 penc ...

Gas vs coal plant switching practicalities | 10 Jun, 2019

The switching dynamics of European gas for coal plants have never been more important than in 2019.  Falling hub prices are tipping the competitive b ...

Decarbonising European gas: value chain impact | 03 Jun, 2019

Decarbonisation of the European gas market will involve very large scale investment across the supply chain, regardless of the pathway via which it is ...