energy markets

Europe & Asian gas prices slump | 18 Feb, 2019

European hub prices have fallen 40% since Sep 2018. This is a substantial move over a five month period. It is even more impressive because the price ...

Confronting power market uncertainty | 11 Feb, 2019

Everyone is familiar with the Base, High & Low scenario approach to power market analysis.  This is rooted in common sense. What is our best gues ...

LNG market balance in 5 charts | 04 Feb, 2019

2018 was a year that confounded LNG market expectations of winter squeezes and summer lulls. The market was tight over summer, with Asia pulling av ...

Variable cost a key differentiator for storage | 28 Jan, 2019

Like cars, gas storage assets come in a range of sizes and speeds.  Any conversation comparing the relative merits of different storage assets tends ...

Renewables in action: a German case study | 14 Jan, 2019

The roll out of wind and solar capacity is transforming power markets across Europe.  If you want to understand the practical impacts of high renewab ...

5 energy market surprises for 2019 | 07 Jan, 2019

Welcome back to our first feature article for 2019.  As has become tradition we start the year with five surprises to watch for on your radar screens ...

Major energy surprises of 2018 | 17 Dec, 2018

 As the Christmas break rapidly approaches, it is time for our traditional year end review of energy market surprises. We approach this in two par ...

How flex price signals differ across TTF vs NBP | 10 Dec, 2018

The European gas market is formed around a well interconnected network of traded hubs. Liquidity at most of these hubs is limited to a short-term hori ...

Boosting midstream asset value capture | 03 Dec, 2018

This decade has been a tough one for owners of flexible midstream gas assets such as storage, pipelines & regas terminals. Asset returns have been ...

European gas price rally hits reverse | 26 Nov, 2018

European hub prices doubled between July 2017 and September 2018.  50% of that move happened in Q3 2018. Through the objective barometer of market pr ...

Shock suspension of UK Capacity Market | 19 Nov, 2018

Last Thursday the UK government abruptly halted the Capacity Market to comply with a European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruling.  The implications of thi ...

Quantifying wind & solar intermittency | 12 Nov, 2018

Averaging wind and solar output volumes reveals some structural patterns.  Wind output tends to be higher during the day time than at night and has a ...

Russian capacity to get gas into Europe | 05 Nov, 2018

As winter approaches the European gas market is looking east.  A tight market increases the importance of Russian flows to maintain orderly hub price ...

Power plant optionality & dispatch cost hurdles | 29 Oct, 2018

The transition taking place in European power markets is reshaping supply stacks. Retiring coal, CCGT & nuclear plants are being replaced with a c ...

3 key factors driving European hub prices | 22 Oct, 2018

European hub prices have roughly doubled since Summer 2017 from 5 to 10 $/mmbtu (15 to 30 €/MWh).  Half of this price move has happened in a surge ...

UK battery investment 3: building an investment case | 15 Oct, 2018

The current interest in UK merchant battery investment is supported by some powerful fundamental drivers. The most important of these is a strong case ...

Global gas market risk shifting to the upside | 08 Oct, 2018

Price behaviour is the most objective barometer of market balance.  And gas prices in 2018 are signalling a tightening market. Two price moves this y ...

Battery investment 2: Monetising battery value | 01 Oct, 2018

2019 may be the breakthrough year for merchant battery investment in the UK.  Battery developers have re-focused investment cases on wholesale market ...

Building an energy trading capability | 24 Sep, 2018

To trade or not to trade. This has been a philosophical question confronting energy company boards since the liberalization of energy markets. Trad ...

Carbon surge driving up TTF & spot LNG prices | 17 Sep, 2018

A carbon price surge in Europe pulling up LNG prices in China? This may sound like a case of the butterfly effect. But the current tandem rise in carb ...

How fuel & carbon prices are driving switching | 10 Sep, 2018

Switching dynamics of gas for coal plant has been a key theme of this blog.  Power sector switching is one of three key mechanisms currently setting ...

UK battery investment 1: business model transition | 03 Sep, 2018

Battery storage broke through the investment viability barrier in the UK’s 2016 capacity auctions. 200MW of batteries were successful in the 2016 ...

European gas hub linkage to the LNG market | 27 Aug, 2018

LNG imports account for about 10% of European gas supply (~60 bcm in 2017). Remaining supply is split fairly evenly between domestic production (domin ...

European emissions: Germany in focus | 20 Aug, 2018

European carbon emissions have declined 10% over the last decade, mainly driven by a reduction in power plant emissions. Renewables have led policy ef ...

Global emissions: running to stand still | 16 Jul, 2018

Decarbonisation has rapidly become one of the driving forces of energy market evolution across the last decade. It is shaping the energy policy landsc ...