European power market

The major energy surprises of 2019 | 16 Dec, 2019

As has become tradition, our last article before the Christmas break reviews the major surprises for the year. We do this review in two parts. Firs ...

5 chart focus: European gas market | 02 Dec, 2019

2019 has seen a big shake up in the European gas market supply and demand balance.  In today’s article we use 5 charts to summarise the current sta ...

5 chart focus: Continental European power | 25 Nov, 2019

Intermarket linkages are increasingly driving energy asset value and risk.  Market linkages across different commodities are becoming more important ...

Revenue stacks for the ‘big 5’ flexible assets | 18 Nov, 2019

Two key capacity auctions are approaching in Q1 2020 that will shape the UK power market capacity mix into the mid 2020s.  12-14 GW of incremental fl ...

UK capacity market ‘back in play’ | 11 Nov, 2019

The UK capacity market was re-instated two weeks ago. This means the immediate resumption of payments for both on-going and historical capacity provid ...

The decarbonisation tipping point? | 14 Oct, 2019

‘tipping point’: the point at which a series of small changes or incidents becomes significant enough to cause a larger, more important change. ...

German & Dutch CCGT value case | 23 Sep, 2019

Between 2005-10 there was a mini boom in CCGT investment in Germany and the Netherlands. These projects reached FID against a backdrop of relatively h ...

Inter-market shock roils power, TTF & JKM | 16 Sep, 2019

In our snapshot column last week we flagged a huge rally in power & gas forward curves. The move was driven by three announcements that surprised ...

Major shifts in German power pricing dynamics | 09 Sep, 2019

Renewable output is growing fast across North West European power markets. Wind & solar output in Germany accounts for more than 30% of demand. In ...

Building a viable battery margin stack | 02 Sep, 2019

We flagged a ‘take off’ in European merchant battery investment as one of our 5 surprises to watch out for in 2019. Investment momentum has been a ...

Evolution of UK balancing flexibility | 20 Aug, 2019

Billions of pounds are being invested in flexible peaking capacity in the UK, as the coal fleet closes and older gas plants retire.  The two dominant ...

FX movements driving energy prices | 08 Jul, 2019

Global trade & geo-political tensions have been steadily rising this year. For example the US-China trade war (& broader power struggle behind ...

Value drivers for Spanish CCGTs | 01 Jul, 2019

Foreign investor interest in the Spanish power market has ebbed and flowed since deregulation. Over this period, Spain has benefited from substantial ...

The relevance of a near zero UK capacity price | 17 Jun, 2019

The latest T-1 UK capacity auction cleared at 0.77 £/kW on Wed last week. That is 87% lower than the last T-1 clearing price (at 6 £/MWh).  77 penc ...

Gas vs coal plant switching practicalities | 10 Jun, 2019

The switching dynamics of European gas for coal plants have never been more important than in 2019.  Falling hub prices are tipping the competitive b ...

Decarbonising European gas: value chain impact | 03 Jun, 2019

Decarbonisation of the European gas market will involve very large scale investment across the supply chain, regardless of the pathway via which it is ...

Headwinds for UK gas engine margins | 29 Apr, 2019

When the UK capacity market was introduced in 2014, large grid connected CCGTs were anticipated to be the primary provider of new capacity.  Step for ...

Challenging three battery investment ‘myths’ | 15 Apr, 2019

‘Battery storage flexibility is a key building block of a decarbonised power sector.’ This statement is not a myth.  In fact it is almost a tr ...

Power sector setting gas prices in Europe | 08 Apr, 2019

Two European gas market records were broken in March. Both LNG and Russian monthly import volumes surged to their highest levels in history. This has ...

Power price uncertainty: a UK case study | 25 Feb, 2019

Baseload power prices are becoming irrelevant.  This is down to the simple fact that a diminishing number of power assets run to a baseload profile. ...

Europe & Asian gas prices slump | 18 Feb, 2019

European hub prices have fallen 40% since Sep 2018. This is a substantial move over a five month period. It is even more impressive because the price ...

Confronting power market uncertainty | 11 Feb, 2019

Everyone is familiar with the Base, High & Low scenario approach to power market analysis.  This is rooted in common sense. What is our best gues ...

Renewables in action: a German case study | 14 Jan, 2019

The roll out of wind and solar capacity is transforming power markets across Europe.  If you want to understand the practical impacts of high renewab ...

5 energy market surprises for 2019 | 07 Jan, 2019

Welcome back to our first feature article for 2019.  As has become tradition we start the year with five surprises to watch for on your radar screens ...

Major energy surprises of 2018 | 17 Dec, 2018

 As the Christmas break rapidly approaches, it is time for our traditional year end review of energy market surprises. We approach this in two par ...