European power market

Shock suspension of UK Capacity Market | 19 Nov, 2018

Last Thursday the UK government abruptly halted the Capacity Market to comply with a European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruling.  The implications of thi ...

Quantifying wind & solar intermittency | 12 Nov, 2018

Averaging wind and solar output volumes reveals some structural patterns.  Wind output tends to be higher during the day time than at night and has a ...

Power plant optionality & dispatch cost hurdles | 29 Oct, 2018

The transition taking place in European power markets is reshaping supply stacks. Retiring coal, CCGT & nuclear plants are being replaced with a c ...

UK battery investment 3: building an investment case | 15 Oct, 2018

The current interest in UK merchant battery investment is supported by some powerful fundamental drivers. The most important of these is a strong case ...

How fuel & carbon prices are driving switching | 10 Sep, 2018

Switching dynamics of gas for coal plant has been a key theme of this blog.  Power sector switching is one of three key mechanisms currently setting ...

UK battery investment 1: business model transition | 03 Sep, 2018

Battery storage broke through the investment viability barrier in the UK’s 2016 capacity auctions. 200MW of batteries were successful in the 2016 ...

European emissions: Germany in focus | 20 Aug, 2018

European carbon emissions have declined 10% over the last decade, mainly driven by a reduction in power plant emissions. Renewables have led policy ef ...

Global emissions: running to stand still | 16 Jul, 2018

Decarbonisation has rapidly become one of the driving forces of energy market evolution across the last decade. It is shaping the energy policy landsc ...

Renewables can plug the French capacity gap | 02 Jul, 2018

We recently considered Belgium’s challenges in replacing thermal capacity with renewables.  The conclusion: the viability of this approach is risky ...

A new UK CCGT despite no price signal | 04 Jun, 2018

The 8 £/kW clearing price in this year’s capacity auction presented a serious roadblock for new CCGT projects. But Scottish utility SSE has mounted ...

Belgium’s nuclear driven capacity crunch | 29 May, 2018

Belgium’s nuclear driven capacity crunch Nuclear power is not popular in Belgium. Belgium’s nukes are even more unpopular with Germany and the ...

Power sector switching is driving gas hub prices | 21 May, 2018

“Everything comes back to gas prices”. It is not only direct participants in the European gas market that are concerned about the path of hub ...

European gas balance: drivers & prognosis | 07 May, 2018

European gas demand hit its ‘high-water’ level of 586 bcm in 2010.  From 2010 to 2014 demand then reversed sharply, falling 19% (111 bcm), and co ...

Plant closure: Valuing closure option vs alternatives | 23 Apr, 2018

Plant closure decisions are usually driven by expected profit.  But a simple assessment of plant profitability is usually an inadequate approach to i ...

Plant closure: drivers of the decision to close | 16 Apr, 2018

European power markets are facing a demographic issue.  Flexible thermal generation capacity is ageing at a faster rate than it is being replaced. ...

NW Europe’s flexible capacity crunch | 19 Mar, 2018

The luxury of oversupply There has been a structural oversupply of capacity in North West European power markets this decade (with the notable exce ...

Gas market explodes into action | 05 Mar, 2018

Cold weather across North West Europe sparked a surge in gas price volatility last week.  The epicentre of system stress was the UK gas market. But t ...

Implications of UK capacity auction results | 19 Feb, 2018

There have been genuine reductions in the costs of flexible capacity over the last 12 months.  These have been supported by falling costs of capital ...

Capturing UK gas peaker margin | 05 Feb, 2018

Small reciprocating engines are dominating delivery of new capacity in the UK power market.  3.5GW of engines have so far been successful in the UK ...

UK capacity auctions set up stack transition | 15 Jan, 2018

The UK power market is preparing for two capacity auctions in Q1 2018.  There is no shortage of competition to provide capacity.  The outcome of the ...

5 energy market surprises for 2018 | 08 Jan, 2018

Welcome back to our first feature article of the year.  We kick-off the year with a set of 5 potential surprises to watch for on the radar screen in ...

Taking nuclear life extensions seriously | 20 Nov, 2017

France has reignited the debate around nuclear power plant closures in Europe this month. The French government has just reneged on its promise to red ...

Energy from waste investment in the UK | 16 Oct, 2017

Energy from waste (EfW) is a relatively small but rapidly evolving sector in North West European power markets. EfW investment is being driven by tech ...

Flexibility investment: New UK CCGTs | 02 Oct, 2017

New CCGTs have not fared well so far in the UK capacity market. Centrica’s repowering of the Kings Lynn plant (0.4GW) has been the only successful p ...

Power price analysis: focus on what matters | 18 Sep, 2017

We apply three simple rules when we analyse power prices: Confront the reality that the price forecast is going to be wrong Define the key mar ...