macro (FX,i-rates)

European gas price rally hits reverse | 26 Nov, 2018

European hub prices doubled between July 2017 and September 2018.  50% of that move happened in Q3 2018. Through the objective barometer of market pr ...

European gas balance: drivers & prognosis | 07 May, 2018

European gas demand hit its ‘high-water’ level of 586 bcm in 2010.  From 2010 to 2014 demand then reversed sharply, falling 19% (111 bcm), and co ...

USD points to higher commodity prices | 29 Jan, 2018

Two big years for energy prices Global commodity prices started a major recovery in Q1 2016.  Energy markets played a core role in this recovery. ...

Keep an eye on the US dollar, yields and inflation | 21 Nov, 2016

The US dollar has surged since the election. The dollar index hit its highest level in over a decade last week suggesting that the next leg of the dol ...

Has the 2016 commodity price recovery got legs? | 13 Jun, 2016

Crude oil has doubled in price since February.  The rally in oil has coincided with a broader recovery in global commodity prices including coal.  H ...

Watch out for a major credit event | 05 Oct, 2015

It is often said that when the tide goes out on commodity prices we find out who’s been swimming without shorts on. The market smells trouble brewin ...

Look to the USD for oil price direction | 25 May, 2015

The decline in crude prices that started last summer has been one of the sharpest selloffs in the history of the oil market. After stabilising towards ...

Early warning signs of an emerging markets problem? | 03 Feb, 2014

In our last article of 2013 we posed a question around the vulnerability of energy markets to an economic shock.  We specifically considered the case ...

2013: Study the past if you would define the future | 09 Dec, 2013

With Christmas rapidly approaching this is the last blog article for 2013.  We will be back next year on the 6th January.  But to finish off this ye ...

Big trouble in little China? | 15 Jul, 2013

Chinese economic growth is the primary driver of the evolution of global commodity market demand, as we have highlighted previously.  Energy markets ...

Controlling an addiction to cheap money | 01 Jul, 2013

The importance of central bank monetary policy in driving commodity markets has been a key theme of this blog.  Since the onset of the financial cris ...

Headaches from FX and interest rate exposures | 15 Apr, 2013

Since the heightened panic across the Eurozone last summer, central banks have flooded credit markets with cheap money.  This has temporarily calmed ...

Currency wars and European energy portfolios | 11 Feb, 2013

Foreign exchange market volatility has sprung to life over the Christmas break.  Over the last two months the EUR has appreciated 7% against USD and ...

Intervention and commodity markets | 17 Sep, 2012

For the last 12 months, the dominant price trend in European power and gas markets has been downwards as global commodity prices have declined and Eur ...

The credit risk implications of a eurozone breakup | 21 May, 2012

We started this year with two articles on the potential for a eurozone breakup in 2012.  The first article focused on why we thought a breakup was a ...

Preparing your business for a eurozone breakup? | 09 Jan, 2012

The probability and timing of a disorderly eurozone breakup are difficult to predict.  But if a breakup occurs, the risk impact on most European ener ...

Will the eurozone survive 2012? | 03 Jan, 2012

Europe faces an existential crisis in 2012.  Credit market stress in response to ballooning sovereign debt levels has forced governments to announce ...

A renewed credit crunch and European energy investment | 21 Nov, 2011

The onset of the financial crisis in 2008 has seen a paradigm shift in the investment behaviour of European energy companies.  An urgency to build pa ...

The debt crisis and European energy markets: a new episode | 05 Sep, 2011

The start of a new episode August, usually a relatively calm month of empty meeting rooms and summer vacations, was this year marked by a sharp incre ...

Bleeding value from residual foreign exchange risk | 15 Aug, 2011

The Achilles heel of foreign exchange management The dangers of foreign exchange risk are well understood in energy markets given the prevalence of c ...

Exchange rate impacts on European power and gas markets | 25 Jul, 2011

We explored the broad impact of asset correlations and exchange rate movements on European energy markets in an article last week. As well as the ‘m ...

The debt crisis and European energy markets | 18 Jul, 2011

Global financial markets are increasingly influencing European energy markets Two years ago a speaker at Flame, the annual European gas industry con ...