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# Timera Energy

We provide expert consulting advice on value & risk in energy markets

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## Blog

- [Hormuz reopening stalls, tilting winter gas price risk higher](https://timera-energy.com/blog/hormuz-reopening-stalls-tilting-winter-gas-price-risk-higher/) - We track LNG tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz and Qatari loadings to show how the reopening stalled, and why that leaves winter gas prices skewed to the upside.
- [Timera supports CPP Investments with its C$1BN investment in the Tarchon interconnector](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-supports-cpp-investments-with-its-c1bn-investment-in-the-tarchon-interconnector/) - Timera Energy is pleased to have supported CPP Investments with its C$1BN investment in Tarchon, a 1.4GW subsea interconnector project between the UK and Germany, alongside WindGrid
- [Italian BESS revenues: a March 2026 arbitrage rebound, but read with caution](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italian-bess-revenues-a-march-2026-arbitrage-rebound-but-read-with-caution/) - We present an index of Italian BESS revenues, and discuss the revenue stack in Italy
- [Onshore - offshore European spreads point to subdued LNG deliveries over rest of summer](https://timera-energy.com/blog/onshore-offshore-european-spreads-point-to-subdued-lng-deliveries-over-rest-of-summer/) - Timera Energy explore upcoming offshore LNG & onshore gas spreads, following the distruption of the Strait of Hormuz
- [WEBINAR - "Battery co-location in Europe: Why the hype hasn't hit deployment"](https://timera-energy.com/blog/webinar-battery-co-location-in-europe-why-the-hype-hasnt-hit-deployment/)
- [Minding the gap: Germany's coal exit meets a lag in gas build](https://timera-energy.com/blog/minding-the-gap-germanys-coal-exit-meets-a-lag-in-gas-build/) - Germany has quietly been progressing its coal exit over recent years with the expectation that new gas-fired generation capacity begins to step in from the early 2030s to make up the shortfall. However, continued delays to new gas tenders, industry-wide supply chain constraints and unprecedented turbine demand, cast doubt on the pace of Germany’s coal exit.
- [Germany's new capacity tenders: what StromVKG means for the power system](https://timera-energy.com/blog/germanys-new-capacity-tenders-what-stromvkg-means-for-the-power-system/) - Germany is moving ahead with a new capacity tendering regime under the StromVKG legislation (BT-Drs. 21/6279, 8 June 2026). BNetzA has been running a series of webinars through June and July 2026 to walk the market through the mechanics, and the first bid deadline is already in September.
- [Why a single forecast will always let you down](https://timera-energy.com/blog/why-a-single-forecast-will-always-let-you-down/) - A good forecast shouldn’t just give you a number. It should tell you how confident to be in it, where the risks are skewed, and when the market is most likely to surprise you.
- [European storage driving gas price curve](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-storage-driving-gas-price-curve/) - European storage levels are set to drive gas price curve risk as weak injection economics collide with policy targets & LNG supply uncertainty
- [Join our webinar "Battery co-location in Europe: Why the hype hasn't hit deployment"](https://timera-energy.com/blog/join-our-webinar-battery-co-location-in-europe-why-the-hype-hasnt-hit-deployment/)
- [Global LNG S&D curves: from supply squeeze to demand catch-up (2026-2040)](https://timera-energy.com/blog/global-lng-sd-curves-from-supply-squeeze-to-demand-catch-up-2026-2040/)
- [What GB power price duration curves signal for BESS value](https://timera-energy.com/blog/what-gb-power-price-duration-curves-signal-for-bess-value/) - We show the evolution of power prices in GB through a stochastically modelled price duration curve.
- [GB long duration storage: reading the first cap & floor winners](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gb-long-duration-storage-reading-the-first-cap-floor-winners/)
- [Quantifying GB BESS revenue at risk from reform](https://timera-energy.com/blog/quantifying-gb-bess-revenue-at-risk-from-reform/) - We look at why backward-looking BESS revenue indices are not a reliable barometer for future value… and how GB congestion value may be eroded by policy reform
- [European regas auctions: a window for portfolio players](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-regas-auctions-a-window-for-portfolio-players/)
- [Dutch government backs a market-wide capacity mechanism](https://timera-energy.com/blog/dutch-government-backs-a-market-wide-capacity-mechanism/)
- [3 key drivers of LNG project commercialisation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-key-drivers-of-lng-project-commercialisation/) - Contract structuring & negotiation underpins securing offtake and raising debt. We set out how to navigate both challenges.
- [Visualising the Iran crisis induced wild gas price swings](https://timera-energy.com/blog/visualising-the-iran-crisis-induced-wild-gas-price-swings/)
- [TTF drops on Iran ceasefire signal](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-drops-on-iran-ceasefire-signal/)
- [Italian BESS: next MACSE 2029 announcement](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italian-bess-next-macse-2029-announcement/)
- [Timera team trip 2026](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-team-trip-2026/)
- [GB BESS revenues fall into May on lower wind, demand and falling ancillary prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gb-bess-revenues-fall-into-may-on-lower-wind-demand-and-falling-ancillary-prices/)
- [How Hormuz disruption is reshaping the Atlantic LNG market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/how-hormuz-disruption-is-reshaping-the-atlantic-lng-market/) - A new supply shock meets a record supply wave: we unpack with Spark Commodities how Strait of Hormuz disruption is reshaping Atlantic LNG value
- [The fading economics of gas-fired power](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-fading-economics-of-gas-fired-power/) - GB still needs gas-fired capacity, but falling load factors, ageing assets and weak new-build signals are reshaping value and ownership.
- [Update on German grid fee reform provides renewed investment certainty](https://timera-energy.com/blog/update-on-german-grid-fee-reform-provides-renewed-investment-certainty/) - The German regulator released a positive update to the AgNes reform earlier this week providing the industry a large boost in investment confidence.
- [How the LNG market is absorbing the shock in 5 charts](https://timera-energy.com/blog/how-the-lng-market-is-absorbing-the-shock-in-5-charts/) - We set out 5 charts that show how the Middle East shock has triggered a powerful LNG demand response, driving LNG market marginal pricing dynamics.
- [North America is increasingly the preferred destination for LNG export investment](https://timera-energy.com/blog/north-america-is-increasingly-the-preferred-destination-for-lng-export-investment/) - 40 mtpa of NA LNG export capacity is expected to have taken FID by the end of 2026 making it the 2nd biggest year for NA LNG export FIDs on record
- [Unpacking the Irish BESS investment case](https://timera-energy.com/blog/unpacking-the-irish-bess-investment-case/) - We dig into Ireland's BESS investment case: how demand growth and market reforms are reshaping the revenue stack — and the risks investors face
- [Slow start to European injection season drives winter upside risk](https://timera-energy.com/blog/slow-start-to-european-injection-season-drives-winter-upside-risk/)
- [BESS offtake structures: 5 key considerations](https://timera-energy.com/blog/bess-offtake-structures-5-key-considerations/) - BESS offtake negotiations are moving from simple optimiser selection to sophisticated risk allocation. We set out 5 key investor focus areas
- [Dutch Feed-in Tariff Reform brings Investment Uncertainty as Grid Costs Climb](https://timera-energy.com/blog/dutch-feed-in-tariff-reform-brings-investment-uncertainty-as-grid-costs-climb/)
- [Seasonality driving UK regas value](https://timera-energy.com/blog/seasonality-driving-uk-regas-value/)
- [Timera Energy supports Expand Energy on signing of long-term SPA with Delfin LNG](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-energy-supports-expand-energy-on-signing-of-long-term-spa-with-delfin-lng/)
- [European gas storage: intrinsic to extrinsic value shift](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-storage-intrinsic-to-extrinsic-value-shift/) - We use a backtest of 2025-26 to illustrate a structural shift in storage capacity value, as well as setting out 5 key takeaways for storage owners & investors
- [Join our upcoming webinar, hosted in collaboration with Spark Commodities](https://timera-energy.com/blog/join-our-upcoming-webinar-hosted-in-collaboration-with-spark-commodities/)
- [German BESS reforms: quantifying investment case risk](https://timera-energy.com/blog/quantifying-investment-case-risk/) - We look at how three overlapping reforms are reshaping the German BESS investment case, and the challenges investors face in pricing that risk into investment decisions.
- [Modelling the impact of removing CPS on the GB Power Market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/modelling-the-impact-of-removing-cps-on-the-gb-power-market/) - We model the impact of removing CPS on the GB Power Market using Timera's pan-European stochastic power stack model, benchmarking against Timera's Central case.
- [European storage injections off to a slow start](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-storage-injections-off-to-a-slow-start/) - European gas storage injections are lagging behind the five-year average, and will need to accelerate to reach mandates.
- [Timera Energy will be attending Flame 2026](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-energy-will-be-attending-flame-2026/) - Connect with us in Amsterdam on 19–20 May 2026
- [Chinese LNG demand bears the brunt of Qatari supply shock](https://timera-energy.com/blog/chinese-lng-demand-bears-the-brunt-of-qatari-supply-shock/) - LNG arrivals into the world's second-largest import market fell 23% year-on-year in March and are tracking around 28% lower in April, as summer JKM prices have surged from ~$10.7/mmbtu pre-crisis to $16.6/mmbtu on April 14th.
- [Italian BESS: Navigating CM and MACSE ahead of 2026 auctions](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italian-bess-navigating-cm-and-macse-ahead-of-2026-auctions/) - Terna's latest forward storage procurement plan, recently endorsed by ARERA, sets total utility-scale storage needs at 42 GWh by 2030 across Southern Italy and the islands.
- [Timera Energy presents at GIIGNL Joint Meeting](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-energy-presents-at-giignl-joint-meeting/)
- [Middle East shock webinar – why is the LNG market relatively calm?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/middle-east-shock-webinar-why-is-the-lng-market-relatively-calm/) - The LNG market is losing 7-8 mt a day of LNG out of the Middle East. Rising crude and coal prices are pushing up marginal switching price levels. And there is currently no clear path to a stable restoration of Middle East cargo flows through Hormuz.
- [LNG market: enduring impacts of Middle East shock](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-market-enduring-impacts/) - A fragile ceasefire has eased near-term price pressure. We examine the enduring LNG supply & demand impacts as well as five key commercial implications.
- [An unremarkable Easter?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/an-unremarkable-easter/) - Deeply negative day-ahead power prices are increasingly emerging as a "normal" feature of North-West European power markets.
- [Timera Energy supports InfraVia on the creation of Supernova Power](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-energy-supports-infravia-on-the-creation-of-supernova-power/) - We're pleased to have supported InfraVia Capital Partners as commercial due diligence advisor on their acquisition and merger of Mercia Power Response and Balance Power Projects to form Supernova Power
- [Conditional ceasefire triggers global gas repricing](https://timera-energy.com/blog/conditional-ceasefire-triggers-global-gas-repricing/) - A US–Iran ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening rapidly strip the geopolitical risk premium from global gas markets, but fragility keeps prices well above pre-crisis levels
- [Global gas pricing: consistent with de-escalation, but seasonal spreads tell a different story](https://timera-energy.com/blog/global-gas-pricing-consistent-with-de-escalation-but-seasonal-spreads-tell-a-different-story/) - Our stochastic modelling shows Summer 26 futures pricing de-escalation, although flat summer-winter spreads signal persistent disruption risk down the curve
- [Middle East supply shock: managing LNG portfolio value in a volatile market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/iran-supply-shock-managing-lng-portfolio-value-in-a-volatile-market/) - The Middle East supply shock is reshaping LNG market dynamics - we set out a case study that shows why a dynamic view of value distributions is key.
- [Join our upcoming webinar “From crisis to supply wave: navigating global gas uncertainty”](https://timera-energy.com/blog/join-our-upcoming-webinar-from-crisis-to-supply-wave-navigating-global-gas-uncertainty/)
- [European gas seasonal spreads move back toward positive territory](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-seasonal-spreads-move-back-toward-positive-territory/) - Winter - Summer 2026 spreads are gradually turning positive again, driven by the market pricing in a more lasting impact from the Iranian conflict and as the EU gives verbal instruction to member states to relax gas storage mandates
- [The rising cost of system imbalance](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-rising-cost-of-system-imbalance/) - We analyse how imbalance risk evolves as RES penetration in the GB power market rises - and why it is becoming a core commercial driver for asset owners & investors.
- [The conflict in Iran drives LNG charter rate volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-conflict-in-iran-drives-lng-charter-rate-volatility/) - The conflict in Iran has driven a rapid spike and then record-breaking fall in charter rates as global LNG flows adjust to the supply shock
- [TTF curve reprices higher as Middle East supply risk extends down the curve](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-curve-reprices-higher-as-middle-east-supply-risk-extends-down-the-curve/) - Strikes on Qatari gas infrastructure have shifted market pricing from a near term supply shock towards a longer duration risk premium across the TTF curve.
- [A new way to forecast price volatility & correlations](https://timera-energy.com/blog/a-new-way-to-forecast-price-volatility-correlations/) - We set out a way to project price volatility & correlation and use an LNG market case study to demonstrate market and asset value impact
- [GB T-4 auction clears at 27 £/kW following multiple years of 60£/kW+ prices as auction demand falls](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gb-t-4-auction-clears-at-27-kw-following-multiple-years-of-60-kw-prices-as-auction-demand-falls/) - The GB T-4 Capacity Market auction for the 2029/30 delivery year cleared on Tuesday at £27.10/kW, a significant drop from the £60-65/kW range that has been observed over the last two auctions. 40.1GW of derated capacity secured contracts out of ~44GW that entered.
- [European gas storage: a case of Jekyll and Hyde](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-storage-a-case-of-jekyll-and-hyde-2/)
- [Middle East supply shock: Repricing global gas](https://timera-energy.com/blog/middle-east-supply-shock-repricing-global-gas/) - We analyse the impact of the middle eastern supply shock on the LNG market, including supply, demand & marginal pricing as well as setting out 5 key drivers to watch
- [Middle east tensions may widen GB power spread volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/middle-east-tensions-may-widen-gb-power-spread-volatility/) - Rising gas prices driven by escalating tensions around Iran are increasing volatility in GB power markets and widening the distribution of potential spreads.
- [Five key impacts of LNG supply disruption via Hormuz](https://timera-energy.com/blog/five-key-impacts-of-lng-supply-disruption-via-hormuz/) - The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and halted Qatari LNG production mark a major global gas supply shock, driving sharply higher prices amid acute uncertainty over duration and wider disruption.
- [Italy’s major policy intervention & asset value implications](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italys-major-policy-intervention-asset-value-implications/) - We look at 8 important investor implications of Italy’s recent emergency policy decree and its impact on power asset values
- [GB data centres: Will queue reforms unlock the next wave of power demand?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gb-data-centres-will-queue-reforms-unlock-the-next-wave-of-power-demand/) - Proposed GB grid connection reforms could unlock a wave of data centre demand, but Ireland shows how quickly power systems can strain following rapid demand growth.
- [TTF premium boosts European regas margins](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-premium-boosts-european-regas-margins/) - We look at how low storage levels in Europe are widening offshore vs onshore price spreads, driving up LNG regas margins.
- [Italian government confirms PSV – TTF liquidity service](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italian-government-confirms-psv-ttf-liquidity-service/) - The “liquidity service”, designed to offer volumes of gas into the Italian market at a fixed premium to TTF, has been passed into law
- [Diverging balances drive unseasonally wide NBP discount to TTF](https://timera-energy.com/blog/diverging-balances-drive-unseasonally-wide-nbp-discount-to-ttf/) - Strong TTF pricing has pulled LNG into Europe and the UK, flipping the UK into net exports and pushing NBP to an unseasonal discount.
- [Join our upcoming webinar "Navigating BESS overbuild in a growing market"](https://timera-energy.com/blog/join-our-upcoming-webinar-navigating-bess-overbuild-in-a-growing-market/)
- [5 takeaways from LNG 2026 in Doha](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-takeaways-from-lng-2026-in-doha/) - We set out 5 takeaways from LNG 2026 in Doha: with fading US supply momentum, Henry Hub volatility, Asian demand & portfolio risk management in focus.
- [Power demand growth in Germany remains a key driver of flex value](https://timera-energy.com/blog/power-demand-growth-in-germany-remains-a-key-driver-of-flex-value/) - Stochastic modelling of various market scenarios is increasingly critical for capturing both value and risk in flexible asset investments, particularly in the context of a rapidly evolving German power market and regulatory landscape.
- [Visualising 2035 power price distributions](https://timera-energy.com/blog/visualising-2035-power-price-distributions/) - We use a 2035 GB power market case study to show the evolving impact of wind & solar on price distributions and flex asset value.
- [TTF rally attracting flexible LNG cargoes to Europe](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-rally-attracting-flexible-lng-cargoes-to-europe/) - Tighter storage picture in Europe causes inversion in cross basin JKM - TTF spread, incentivising flexible LNG cargoes to Europe over Asia over balance of winter
- [12 GW German power flex tender: 5 investment drivers](https://timera-energy.com/blog/12-gw-german-power-flex-tender-5-investment-drivers/) - Germany has at last secured EU approval for a 12 GW gas-fired capacity tender. We look at how it is structured as well as 5 drivers of a viable investment case.
- [2hr GB BESS revenues see ~45% drop in Dec 25 relative to Dec 24](https://timera-energy.com/blog/2hr-gb-bess-revenues-see-40-drop-in-dec-25-relative-to-dec-24/) - Revenues fell from ~110 £/kW/yr in Dec 24 to ~60 £/kW/yr in Dec 25 for 2hr BESS driven by looser market conditions and lower ancillary prices.
- [LNG value shift as US exports price volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/value-shift-as-us-exports-price-volatility/) - We set out why US gas price volatility is becoming an increasingly important driver of LNG price & asset value dynamics & show a case study which quantifies this.
- [Inverted seasonal spreads complicate 2026 outlook for storage operators](https://timera-energy.com/blog/inverted-seasonal-spreads-complicate-2026-outlook-for-storage-operators/) - Europe is again facing potential difficulties in filling gas storage as W26–S26 seasonal spreads have inverted.
- [Timera Energy at the Energy Storage Summit 2026](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-energy-at-the-energy-storage-summit-2026/) - Timera Energy will be exhibiting and speaking at the ESS 2026
- [Poland in the spotlight for BESS investment](https://timera-energy.com/blog/poland-in-the-spotlight-for-bess-investment/) - With strong ancillary revenues and a large renewables pipeline, Poland is increasingly in focus as a potential next-growth market for BESS investment
- [Timera Energy at LNG2026](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-energy-at-lng2026/) - Our gas director will be speaking at the 2026 LNG conference in Qatar
- [5 energy market surprises for 2026](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-energy-market-surprises-for-2026/) - Five non-consensus energy market shifts that could materially impact asset value and risks in 2026.
- [Timera publishes Q4 Global Gas Report](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-publishes-q4-global-gas-report/)
- [Gas storage proves flex value vs LNG amidst cold spell](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-storage-proves-flex-value-vs-lng-amidst-cold-spell/) - Cold weather in Europe sees withdrawals climb above seasonal average
- [Henry Hub shock squeezes US Gulf Coast Netbacks](https://timera-energy.com/blog/henry-hub-shock-squeezes-us-gulf-coast-netbacks/) - Henry Hub volatility risk is pushing US LNG offtakers towards greater flexibility as tightening netbacks erode margins
- [10 Energy market surprises from 2025](https://timera-energy.com/blog/10-energy-market-surprises-from-2025/) - Timera Energy look at 10 surprises across energy markets in 2025 as well as summarising key focus areas for our clients this year.
- [Data centre growth in GB is intensifying. Can the grid keep up?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/data-centre-growth-in-gb-is-intensifying-can-the-grid-keep-up/) - The rapid scaling of AI is driving a surge in data centre investment, creating a widening gap between firm capacity needs and the GB system’s ability to supply them.
- [5 factors driving GB BESS revenue](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-factors-driving-gb-bess-revenue/)
- [Cold snap exposes Europe’s regional storage divide](https://timera-energy.com/blog/cold-snap-exposes-europes-regional-storage-divide/) - Timera Energy discuss the state of European underground gas storages, and how locational conditions may affect spreads this coming winter
- [Managing value & risk across LNG portfolios](https://timera-energy.com/blog/managing-value-risk-across-lng-portfolios/) - We look at key disciplines for managing value and risk in LNG portfolios; from valuation and limits to credit, liquidity and FOB operational control.
- [Wholesale trading opens up for Storage in Ireland](https://timera-energy.com/blog/wholesale-trading-opens-up-for-storage-in-ireland/) - Timera Energy explains how market rule updates in Ireland allow negative dispatch for storage ahead of ancillary regime shift
- [Focus shifts to hybrid PPAs as solar capture prices plunge](https://timera-energy.com/blog/focus-shifts-to-hybrid-ppas-as-solar-capture-prices-plunge/) - Timera Energy examine how rapid PV build-out is eroding solar capture prices across Europe and driving growing interest in hybrid PPAs for BESS co-located with solar
- [Ukraine shifts to net gas importer amidst domestic production curtailments](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ukraine-shifts-to-net-gas-importer-amidst-domestic-production-curtailments/) - Timera Energy explain how the war-related disruption to Ukraine’s domestic gas production has turned the country from a regional balancer into a net-importer, prompting a strategic pivot to LNG imports via Poland and Greece for enhanced supply security.
- [What’s regas worth? European access & the LNG supply wave](https://timera-energy.com/blog/whats-regas-worth-european-access-the-lng-supply-wave/) - Timera Energy describe how a surge in US LNG capacity is driving renewed focus in European regasification capacity.
- [BESS continues to dominate new build capacity in Belgian CRM](https://timera-energy.com/blog/bess-continues-to-dominate-new-build-capacity-in-belgian-crm/) - New Y-2 auction in CRM launched to support BESS, however auctions remains dominated by gas
- [Italian power prices: what’s driving the divergence?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italian-power-prices-whats-driving-the-divergence/) - Timera Energy look at how Italy’s power & gas price premium to neighbouring markets is attracting regulatory attention & explore drivers & investor implications
- [LNG charter rates spike as vessels tied up in floating storage](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-charter-rates-spike-as-vessels-tied-up-in-floating-storage/) - Timera Energy explain how LNG charter rates have rebounded into November as vessels act to capitalise on time spreads
- [What will offshore wind in the AR7 CFD round really cost?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/what-will-offshore-wind-in-the-ar7-cfd-round-really-cost/) - Conservative capture price assumptions limit offshore wind in AR7
- [Shifting the risk curve for US LNG supply](https://timera-energy.com/blog/shifting-the-risk-curve-for-us-lng-supply/) - Timera Energy use a practical case study to show how a surge in US supply is driving evolution in LNG contract structuring & portfolio risk management.
- [5 drivers of a major GB BESS shake out](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-drivers-of-a-major-gb-bess-shake-out/) - We look at 5 drivers behind a shift in the GB BESS investment landscape and why it is driving M&A activity.
- [UK regulator eyeing gas entry/exit tariff reform](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-regulator-eyeing-gas-entry-exit-tariff-reform/) - Alignment on UK entry/exit tariffs could change UK – continental Europe flow dynamics
- [Timera supports APG Asset Management with its investment in Return Storage](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-supports-apg-asset-management-with-its-investment-in-return-storage/) - Timera Energy is pleased to have supported APG Asset Management with its investment in European battery storage developer Return Storage
- [German BESS: investment impact of rising volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/german-bess-investment-impact-of-rising-volatility/) - Timera Energy quantify the structural increase in German power price volatility across the next 10 years & set out 5 key takeaways for BESS investors
- [GB LDES investment interest grows in 2025 with cap & floor scheme](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gb-ldes-investment-interest-grows-in-2025-with-cap-floor-scheme/) - Shift from 4 to 8hr duration increases DA margins by ~34% in GB market
- [One final roll of the dice: gas market winter outlook](https://timera-energy.com/blog/one-final-roll-of-the-dice-gas-market-winter-outlook/) - Timera explain Lhow NG and gas market risks increase into the northern hemisphere winter, driven by the threat of cold weather.
- [Italy eyes regulatory tools to narrow PSV–TTF spread](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italy-eyes-regulatory-tools-to-narrow-psv-ttf-spread/) - Italy’s efforts to close the PSV-TTF gap risk exporting price pressure north
- [LNG shipping market in the doldrums](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-shipping-market-in-the-doldrums/) - Timera Energy explain why LNG charter rates have hit record lows, how they may recover & what this means for LNG portfolio value via a case study.
- [Timera supports Ardian on their acquisition of Energia](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-supports-ardian-on-their-acquisition-of-energia/) - Timera Energy is pleased to have supported Ardian on their acquisition of Irish utility Energia
- [Li-ion dominates in GB LDES eligibility outcome](https://timera-energy.com/blog/li-ion-dominates-in-gb-ldes-eligibility-outcome/) - LDES cap & floor to accelerate investment with final results due Q1 2026
- [Investor impact of MACSE price dive](https://timera-energy.com/blog/investor-impact-of-macse-price-dive/) - We analyse drivers behind an unexpectedly low 1st MACSE auction clearing price that delivered 10GWh of BESS & unpack key implications for Italian storage investors.
- [Timera publishes Q3 Global Gas Report](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-publishes-q3-global-gas-report/) - We’re pleased to share our Q3 2025 update of the Timera Global Gas Service
- [TTF curve animation: Tracking evolving expectations](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-curve-animation-tracking-evolving-expectations/) - Watch how the TTF forward curve has evolved through time, reflecting changing views on LNG supply, demand, and price risk
- [Russia ramps up Arctic LNG 2 exports as EU releases 19th sanctions package](https://timera-energy.com/blog/russia-ramps-up-arctic-lng-2-exports-as-eu-releases-19th-sanctions-package/) - Russia has restarted operation at the Arctic LNG 2 facility, selling cargoes into China as the EU fast-tracks their ban on Russian LNG imports.
- [Evolution of intraday power price shape](https://timera-energy.com/blog/evolution-of-intraday-power-price-shape/) - We set out analysis showing projections of price shape evolution and the impact on flex asset value
- [Germany revises some of its energy transition ambitions](https://timera-energy.com/blog/germany-revises-some-of-its-energy-transition-ambitions/) - New energy transition monitoring report aims to increase industrial competitiveness but likely increase reliance on fossil fuels.
- [Join our webinar “Sailing the supply wave: LNG shipping outlook & portfolio implications”](https://timera-energy.com/blog/join-our-webinar-sailing-the-supply-wave-lng-shipping-outlook-portfolio-implications/)
- [Join our webinar “Zonal pricing dead but locational value lives”](https://timera-energy.com/blog/join-our-webinar-zonal-pricing-dead-but-locational-value-lives/) - Webinar assessing the impact of the Jul 25 decision to kill Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP) on GB BESS investors
- [5 key takeaways from Gastech 2025](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-key-takeaways-from-gastech-2025/) - We set out 5 key takeaways on the LNG market & commercial focus areas based on discussions at GasTech last week
- [Oil prices steady despite OPEC+ unwinding cuts](https://timera-energy.com/blog/oil-prices-steady-despite-opec-unwinding-cuts/)
- [Zonal pricing dead in GB, but location still drives value](https://timera-energy.com/blog/zonal-pricing-dead-in-gb-but-location-still-drives-value/) - We set out the GB BESS value implications of the key recent decision to abandon locational marginal pricing
- [LNG market state of play in 5 charts](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-market-state-of-play-in-5-charts/) - We use 5 charts to show how the LNG market is evolving in 2025 and what factors are shaping the path into 2026-27
- [NWE sees summer spreads continue to grow year on year](https://timera-energy.com/blog/nwe-sees-summer-spreads-continue-to-grow-year-on-year/) - Power price spreads have risen into Summer 2025 as heatwaves and strong renewable penetration stretch midday solar dip and create sharper evening price peaks.
- [GB BESS revenues fall across summer from ~90 £/kW to ~55 £/kW](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gb-bess-revenues-fall-across-summer-from-90-kw-to-55-kw/) - Annualised revenue comparison for a midlands 2hr asset in first week of July (1-8th) and last week of July (24th-31st) (imbalance revenues, intraday uplift and penalties from failure to deliver ancillary services are not accounted for in the chart above)
- [European LNG imports close to record levels through year to date](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-lng-imports-close-to-record-levels-through-year-to-date/) - European LNG imports were ~21% higher year-on-year through July and trending close to record levels, supported by increased injection requirements following strong winter demand.
- [TTF crash & recovery in animation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-crash-recovery-in-animation/)
- [Oil price crash in animation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/oil-price-crash-in-animation/)
- [European power crisis in animation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-power-crisis-in-animation/)
- [Poland joins PICASSO](https://timera-energy.com/blog/poland-joins-picasso/) - Imbalance prices in Poland see extreme volatility on accession to the PICASSO aFRR scheme.
- [High injection rates put EU gas storage on track to meet mandates](https://timera-energy.com/blog/high-injection-rates-put-eu-gas-storage-on-track-to-meet-mandates/) - European stocks already at 65% full, although Germany facing challenges filling Rehden on weak THE price signal.
- [REMA update rules out UK zonal pricing scheme](https://timera-energy.com/blog/rema-update-rules-out-uk-zonal-pricing-scheme/) - A decision has been made to not go ahead with zonal pricing, yet uncertainty remains in how the reformed national market will be implemented.
- [BESS value capture climbing in 2025](https://timera-energy.com/blog/bess-value-capture-climbing-in-2025/) - We look at how Day-Ahead value capture for BESS is evolving across 5 key European BESS markets in 2025 as well as 5 key takeaways for investors.
- [LNG shipping market remains tighter as tensions ease](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-shipping-market-remains-tighter-as-tensions-ease/) - LNG shipping rates have not returned to their early-June levels despite the recent de-escalation of tensions in Iran.
- [Italian BESS & MACSE state of play](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italian-bess-macse-state-of-play/) - we show analysis of 3 key Italian BESS investment drivers as well as looking at historical BESS revenue performance & the lead up to 1st MACSE auctions
- [Gas markets in flux: a framework for confronting macro uncertainty - WEBINAR](https://timera-energy.com/blog/join-our-webinar-gas-markets-in-flux-a-framework-for-confronting-macro-uncertainty/)
- [All eyes on LNG demand as gas prices recede](https://timera-energy.com/blog/all-eyes-on-lng-demand-as-gas-prices-recede/) - Timera Energy look at how softening Asian demand is shaping LNG market evolution as Middle Eastern risk premiums recede sharply
- [Timera exhibiting at Gastech 2025](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-exhibiting-at-gastech-2025/) - Our gas team will be exhibiting at the 2025 Gastech conference in Milan
- [Israel – Iran tensions drive gas price volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/israel-iran-tensions-drive-gas-price-volatility/) - Global gas indexes have seen a surge in price & volatility this June, as the market priced in supply-side geopolitical risks.
- [3 scenarios to frame LNG market evolution](https://timera-energy.com/blog/3-scenarios-to-frame-lng-market-evolution/) - We set out 3 scenarios to frame the looming structural LNG market transition, consider commercial implications & look at the market impact of Iranian conflict
- [Battery revenues fall in GB on low wind generation & lower gas prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/battery-revenues-fall-in-gb-on-low-wind-generation-lower-gas-prices/) - Timera Energy explore the recent outturns for BESS in different parts of Great Britain.
- [European regas activity intensifies](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-regas-activity-intensifies/) - As the new LNG supply wave approaches, regas M&A and contracting activity is intensifying. We look at strategic drivers & a framework for valuation.
- [Asian proportion of US LNG imports on the rise](https://timera-energy.com/blog/asian-proportion-of-us-lng-imports-on-the-rise/) - Asian imports of US LNG have risen 66% in volume from February to May 2025 as the Asian – European LNG spread widens.
- [Investment case for European gas-fired power plants](https://timera-energy.com/blog/investment-case-for-european-gas-fired-power-plants/) - We look at the challenges & opportunities facing gas plant investors as the policy landscape shifts & dive into the nuances of the gas-fired investment case.
- [Join our webinar “Building a viable CCGT & gas peaker investment case"](https://timera-energy.com/blog/join-our-webinar-building-a-viable-ccgt-gas-peaker-investment-case/) - Assessing the role of gas-fired capacity in the energy transition and the investment opportunities in this space across Europe
- [Iberian price divergence on interconnector constraints](https://timera-energy.com/blog/iberian-price-divergence-on-interconnector-constraints/) - Timera Energy writes about how the limit on Spanish & Portugese interconnector capacity has affected prices following the Spanish grid blackout.
- [Hydrogen Bank auction results & power market impact by 2030](https://timera-energy.com/blog/hydrogen-bank-auction-results-power-market-impact-by-2030/) - We look at how Hydrogen Bank auctions are delivering electrolyser capacity & the impact of this on power markets across the next 5 years.
- [UK carbon prices rally on announced EU & UK ETS merger](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-carbon-prices-rally-on-announced-eu-uk-ets-merger/) - Timera Energy explains how the trade deal announced between the UK & EU has seen a 33% rally in UK carbon prices since talks began. This new alignment is supportive of UK low carbon flexible asset value.
- [Italian gas flexibility: price signals in action](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italian-gas-flexibility-price-signals-in-action/) - Timera Energy explore recent spikes in the PSV-THE price spread, and how the dynamic driving flexible piped flows into Italy is evolving.
- [German energy regulator opens public consultation on network tariff reform](https://timera-energy.com/blog/german-energy-regulator-opens-public-consultation-on-network-tariff-reform/)
- [Current LNG portfolio value drivers in focus](https://timera-energy.com/blog/current-lng-portfolio-value-drivers-in-focus/) - We set out key portfolio focus areas for LNG companies in 2025 and use a case study to demonstrate changing portfolio valuation dynamics.
- [Higher LNG imports support European regas value](https://timera-energy.com/blog/higher-lng-imports-support-european-regas-value/) - Storage injections and weak Asian demand drive higher EU LNG imports.
- [BESS co-location resurgence in Germany](https://timera-energy.com/blog/bess-co-location-resurgence-in-germany/) - We look at policy related value drivers that are supporting the investment case for co-located BESS in Germany
- [Locational dynamics driving differences in GB BESS revenue stacks](https://timera-energy.com/blog/locational-dynamics-driving-differences-in-gb-bess-revenue-stacks/) - Distribution of battery revenues for 2hr BESS in GB across March 2025 excluding intraday financial churn & non-delivery penalties.
- [Price volatility driving gas storage returns](https://timera-energy.com/blog/price-volatility-driving-gas-storage-returns/) - Timera Energy explore why the flexibility of storage assets remains crucial to monetising value from price spread volatility
- [EU mulls relaxation of gas storage targets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/eu-mulls-relaxation-of-gas-storage-targets/) - Amidst ongoing discussions about changes to EU gas storage mandates, four countries are key to the challenge of reaching target levels, while others have already met mandated targets.
- [MACSE auction: clarity, competition & commercial strategy](https://timera-energy.com/blog/macse-auction-clarity-competition-commercial-strategy/) - Timera Energy set out latest for Italian BESS investors on progress towards first MACSE auction covering strategic takeaways from our recent webinar & ARERA’s consultation.
- [Timera Energy will be attending FLAME 2025](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-energy-will-be-attending-flame-2025/) - Timera Energy will be attending FLAME in Amsterdam over 13th - 15th May 2025.
- [GB long duration energy storage cap & floor applications kick off](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gb-long-duration-energy-storage-cap-floor-applications-kick-off/) - Timera Energy explains how LDES revenue certainty marks a tangible step forward in the UK's bid to secure reliable, low carbon power.
- [Seasonal pricing shape returns to TTF forward curve](https://timera-energy.com/blog/seasonal-pricing-shape-returns-to-ttf-forward-curve/) - Timera Energy explains how seasonal contango has returned to TTF forward curve as summer contract prices fall below winter prices, relaxing economic concerns of filling storage.
- [European flexible gas asset value in a post crisis world - Webinar recap](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-flexible-gas-asset-value-in-a-post-crisis-world-webinar-recap/) - We set out how Russian supply cuts have shifted gas flows & the value of midstream assets such as pipelines, storage & regas.
- [MACSE auction expected quota hits 10 GWh target](https://timera-energy.com/blog/macse-auction-expected-quota-hits-10-gwh-target/) - Timera Energy discusses increased M&A activity surrounding the upcoming MACSE auctions.
- [Analysis of the recent GB BESS revenue recovery](https://timera-energy.com/blog/analysis-of-the-recent-gb-bess-revenue-recovery/) - We show analysis of ‘top 10’ performing GB BESS assets, revenue stack breakdown, wholesale vs BM capture & the impact of Quick Reserve & asset location.
- [Negative power prices in Iberia return after seasonal pause](https://timera-energy.com/blog/negative-power-prices-in-iberia-return-after-seasonal-pause/) - Hydro generation drives negative prices in Iberia, pushing average negative prices below -1 €/MWh and 1-hour DA spreads above 150 €/MWh in March 2025.
- [To what extent are hedge funds driving gas prices?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/to-what-extent-are-hedge-funds-driving-gas-prices/) - We look at the role of hedge funds in the gas market, what drives their trading activity & how they impact gas prices via a recent case study.
- [LNG vessel charter rates recover from January lows](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-vessel-charter-rates-recover-from-january-lows/) - Timera Energy covers how daily charter rates have recovered from lows of 5 $k/day over February and March
- [Join our webinar “The MACSE start gun has been fired”](https://timera-energy.com/blog/join-our-webinar-the-macse-start-gun-has-been-fired/) - Timera Energy will be discussing timelines, guidelines & commercial considerations for BESS investors targeting 1st MACSE auction in Sep 2025
- [Italy’s 1st MACSE auction: green light for BESS investors](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italys-1st-macse-auction-green-light-for-bess-investors/) - First MACSE auction timelines & capacity targets are now confirmed. We set out the path into the auction for BESS investors.
- [GB T-4 Capacity Market Results](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gb-t-4-capacity-market-results/) - Timera Energy: BESS emerges as the clear winner of the GB T-4 capacity market auction.
- [Impact of an increase in Russian gas flows to the EU](https://timera-energy.com/blog/impact-of-an-increase-in-russian-gas-flows-to-the-eu/) - We set out 3 scenarios for potential increase in Russian gas flows to Europe & consider market price and asset value impact
- [US LNG exports to Atlantic basin hit 2-year high](https://timera-energy.com/blog/us-lng-exports-to-atlantic-basin-hit-2-year-high/) - Recent TTF & JKM price dynamics have attracted the highest proportion of cargoes to Europe seen in 2 years.
- [BESS revenue capture ranked across Europe](https://timera-energy.com/blog/bess-revenue-capture-ranked-across-europe/) - We compare 2023 and 2024 BESS day-ahead revenue capture across European power markets and touch upon drivers in key European BESS markets.
- [Italian 2027 Capacity Market Auction: MACSE's impact & the BESS success](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italian-2027-capacity-market-auction-macses-impact-the-bess-success/) - BESS dominates new capacity in latest Capacity Market auctions as the now confirmed MACSE shapes market dynamics, with CM marginal price equal to 47€/kW.
- [Power sourcing key for a bankable green H2 project](https://timera-energy.com/blog/power-sourcing-key-for-a-bankable-green-h2-project/) - Timera Energy explore the key sourcing options for green hydrogen electrolysis and the challenges of meeting EU criteria.
- [Energy Storage Summit 2025: 5 key takeaways](https://timera-energy.com/blog/energy-storage-summit-2025-5-key-takeaways/) - We summarise the 5 key takeaways from the 2025 ESS in London.
- [Is the European Gas Price Rally Over?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/is-the-european-gas-price-rally-over/) - We look at drivers behind a 20% gas price decline across the last 2 weeks & whether this is the end of a year long rally
- ["European flexible gas asset value in a post crisis world" - How changing flow patterns affect revenues Webinar](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-flexible-gas-asset-value-in-a-post-crisis-world-webinar/) - Register today for Timera Energy's free upcoming webinar, hosted on 18th March.
- [Germany’s Snap Election: Decarbonisation to stay on track, but the route may change](https://timera-energy.com/blog/germanys-snap-election-decarbonisation-to-stay-on-track-but-the-route-may-change/) - CDU/CSU leads the race in Germany's Election, backing renewables expansion and a managed coal phase-out
- [Gas prices driving BESS revenue recovery](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-prices-driving-bess-revenue-recovery/) - We look into how gas prices are driving the recent BESS revenue stack recovery across Europe
- [January LNG exports to Europe hit all-time high](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-january-lng-imports-hit-all-time-high/) - Uptick in January & February import requirements driven by colder winter weather and declining onshore supply
- [Gas supply flexibility in a post crisis world](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-supply-flexibility-in-a-post-crisis-world/) - Timera Energy use a Netherlands case study to show how the crisis has structurally changed how the European gas market balances
- [European & UK carbon prices rally](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-uk-carbon-prices-rally/) - Increases come against backdrop of gas price surge and the UK looking to relink its emissions trading scheme with the EU.
- [Flow-based market coupling & counterintuitive flows in Europe](https://timera-energy.com/blog/flow-based-market-coupling-counterintuitive-flows-in-europe/) - Timera Energy look into the key drivers behind counterintuitive flows and examines the operational challenges and opportunities they create for market participants.
- [European LNG to gas hub spreads rebound](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-lng-to-gas-hub-spreads-rebound/) - Cost of delivering LNG to NWE rises with increased demand for regasification capacity.
- [Gas & LNG market state of play in 5 charts](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-lng-market-state-of-play-in-5-charts/) - We set out the drivers behind rising European & Asian gas prices into 2025 in 5 charts
- [H2 2024 - LNG & gas client work review](https://timera-energy.com/blog/h2-2024-lng-gas-client-work-review/) - Take a look at some of the themes in our work across the past 6 months
- [5 energy market surprises for 2025](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-energy-market-surprises-for-2025/) - We set out 5 surprises for energy markets in 2025 including major market volatility, policy shocks & a surge in battery investment.
- [European gas storage levels depleting fast](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-storage-levels-depleting-fast/) - Colder-than-average winter temperatures are causing gas storage levels to drop nearly ~15bcm below last year’s level
- [NESO pauses GB grid connection applications](https://timera-energy.com/blog/neso-pauses-gb-grid-connection-applications/) - NESO has announced a pause in grid connection applications, which will remain in effect until Ofgem reaches a decision on its Connections Reform proposal.
- [Impact of German Dunkelflaute on flex asset value](https://timera-energy.com/blog/impact-of-german-dunkelflaute-on-flex-asset-value/) - We examine the impact of Dunkelflaute events on baseload prices, price volatility, and the value of flexible power assets.
- [Timera sponsoring & presenting at 2025 Energy Storage Summit](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-sponsoring-presenting-at-2025-energy-storage-summit/) - Our Power Director, Steven Coppack, will be speaking on building a Bankable BESS Investment Case.
- [Italian Capacity Market Auction Results for 2026](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italian-capacity-market-auction-results-for-2026/) - The 2026 Italian Capacity Market auction assigned 42.8 GW of derated capacity and saw awarded prices for new capacity dropping to 56.2 €/kW, while clearing prices for existing capacity remained at the price cap.
- [Russian gas flows to Europe through Ukraine cease](https://timera-energy.com/blog/russian-gas-flows-to-europe-through-ukraine-cease/) - Long term capacity contracts between Ukraine and Russia expired on the 1st January 2025
- [GB Capacity Market prequalification results released](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gb-capacity-market-prequalification-results-released/) - Total prequalifying capacity in T-4 CM register continues to tighten against government target, reinforcing the need for more new build capacity.
- [China November LNG imports fall year-on-year](https://timera-energy.com/blog/china-november-lng-imports-fall-year-on-year/) - Soft industrial demand, ample onshore supply drive a reduction in LNG imports
- [10 energy market surprises from 2024](https://timera-energy.com/blog/10-energy-market-surprises-from-2024/) - We look at 10 surprises across energy markets in 2024 as well as checking in on the 5 surprises we set out in January.
- [Major reform to GB grid connections could be rolled out in 2025](https://timera-energy.com/blog/major-reform-to-gb-grid-connections-could-be-rolled-out-in-2025/) - A recent NESO consultation creates risk for developers awaiting grid connection
- [Italian BESS investment to surge in 2025](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italian-bess-investment-to-surge-in-2025/) - We set out & discuss analysis of value drivers & risks for battery investors in Italy as well as looking at MACSE & Capacity Market bidding strategies.
- [Henry hub surges with oncoming cold weather periods](https://timera-energy.com/blog/henry-hub-surges-with-oncoming-cold-weather-periods/) - Domestic demand in the US sets off
- [How flexibility clears the gas market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/how-flexibility-clears-the-gas-market/) - We look at a GB case study of mechanisms that have enabled the gas market to clear through the last 5 years of Covid & crisis shocks.
- [Why Europe remains dependent on gas plants](https://timera-energy.com/blog/why-europe-remains-dependent-on-gas-plants/) - We use last week’s market tightness to illustrate the role of gas plants & explore key value drivers & risks faced by gas plant owners & investors
- [EU Methane Regulation – a canary in the coal mine?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/eu-methane-regulation-a-canary-in-the-coal-mine/) - We set out the potential commercial & market implications for LNG & gas portfolios of the recently passed EU Methane Regulation
- [TTF prices breakout higher & flip JKM](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-prices-breakout-to-new-highs-for-2024/) - We look at key drivers of the recent TTF price rally & how LNG market supply & demand balance is shaping up into 2023.
- [“Absorbing the supply wave” – LNG market flex mechanisms webinar](https://timera-energy.com/blog/absorbing-the-supply-wave-lng-market-flex-mechanisms-webinar/)
- [German power prices & spreads diverge with growing RES penetration](https://timera-energy.com/blog/german-power-prices-spreads-diverge-with-growing-res-penetration/) - Historically linked power prices and spreads are losing their coupling
- [TTF 2025 seasonal spreads go negative](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-2025-seasonal-spreads-go-negative/) - Forward contracts for front year summer deliveries priced higher than winter contracts on storage mandate pressure
- [“MACSE strategy” – Italian BESS investment webinar](https://timera-energy.com/blog/macse-strategy-italian-bess-investment-webinar/)
- [New build BESS secure CM contracts in latest T-4 Belgian CRM](https://timera-energy.com/blog/new-build-bess-secure-cm-contracts-in-latest-t-4-belgian-crm/) - All participants cleared in the auction for 2028-29 delivery
- [Netherlands joins PICASSO aFRR platform, imbalance volatility falls by almost 50% in the first period.](https://timera-energy.com/blog/netherlands-joins-picasso-afrr-platform-imbalance-volatility-falls-by-almost-50-in-the-first-period/) - TenneT, Dutch TSO, can now offer and procure aFRR balancing services via PICASSO to neighbouring regions
- [Timera supports LC Energy in the sale of their 6GW Dutch BESS development platform](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-supports-lc-energy-in-the-sale-of-their-6gw-dutch-bess-development-platform/)
- [Middle East risks exaggerated; China stimulus underestimated?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/middle-east-risks-exaggerated-china-stimulus-underestimated/) - Gas, power & oil prices have been buffeted by macro drivers across the last 4 weeks & the impact is set to continue
- [Revenue modelling for an electrolyser](https://timera-energy.com/blog/revenue-modelling-for-an-electrolyser/) - We set out the 4 key components of an electrolyser supply chain & look at case study examples of how modelling can support configuration & commercial decisions
- [Gas market winter outlook & 5 key risks](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-market-winter-outlook-5-key-risks/) - We set out analysis showing European gas market supply & demand balance across the coming winter & look at 5 key market risks into 2025
- [Pre-winter European gas storage ahead of target](https://timera-energy.com/blog/pre-winter-european-gas-storage-ahead-of-target/) - Nearly all European countries have already met gas storage mandates ahead of winter.
- [First Capacity Market Notice of Winter 2024/25 issued](https://timera-energy.com/blog/first-capacity-market-notice-of-winter-2024-25-issued/) - Interconnector outages and high demand causes NESO to issue a Capacity Market Notice, which was later withdrawn.
- [Update on Italian BESS investment case & MACSE bidding](https://timera-energy.com/blog/update-on-italian-bess-investment-case-macse-bidding/) - We look at the BESS investor impact of the latest system operator targets as well as setting out 4 BESS business models & MACSE bidding strategy considerations
- [Key gas market S&D drivers for 2025](https://timera-energy.com/blog/key-gas-market-sd-drivers-for-2025/) - We outline the key drivers and impacts across the upcoming year.
- [Ratcliffe closure completes phase out of coal in the UK](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ratcliffe-closure-completes-phase-out-of-coal-in-the-uk/) - The UK completes coal phase out while EU wide transition continues.
- [Timera presents at Santander BESS session](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-presents-at-santander-bess-session/)
- [2024 BESS revenue performance: a tale of 3 markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/2024-bess-revenue-performance-a-tale-of-3-markets/) - We compare backtested battery revenues across three core European markets.
- [EUA carbon prices fall from August rebound](https://timera-energy.com/blog/eua-carbon-prices-fall-from-august-rebound/) - Fall in TTF prices sees bearish trend in EUA market
- [LNG contract price reviews in focus](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-contract-price-reviews-in-focus/) - We set out analysis looking at the value of price review or reopener clauses in LNG supply contracts.
- [Atlantic LNG charter rates drop to seasonal low in September](https://timera-energy.com/blog/atlantic-lng-charter-rates-drop-to-seasonal-low-in-september/) - Tighter Asia-Europe spreads have capped Autumn charter rates
- [Negative prices surging: a German case study](https://timera-energy.com/blog/strong-growth-in-negative-prices-a-german-case-study/) - We look at the sharp increase in negative prices across European power markets
- [Results for allocation round 6 (AR6) of Contracts for Difference (CfD) auctions released](https://timera-energy.com/blog/results-for-allocation-round-6-ar6-of-contracts-for-difference-cfd-auctions-released/) - Offshore wind makes a comeback in CfD auctions following budget increases
- [Gas market state of play in 5 charts](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-market-state-of-play-in-5-charts-2/) - We look at current Global Gas market landscape through 5 key charts
- [Asian demand continues recovery](https://timera-energy.com/blog/asian-demand-continues-recovery/)
- [2 key BESS investment markets: “Germany vs Netherlands”](https://timera-energy.com/blog/2-key-bess-investment-markets-germany-vs-netherlands/)
- [Timera Energy are attending Gastech 2024](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-energy-are-attending-gastech-2024/)
- [Ireland poised for major expansion in interconnector capacity over the next decade](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ireland-poised-for-major-expansion-in-interconnector-capacity-over-the-next-decade/)
- [European regas utilisation shows signs of August recovery](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-regas-utilisation-shows-signs-of-august-recovery/)
- [German government proposes options for Capacity Market (CM) design](https://timera-energy.com/blog/german-government-proposes-options-for-capacity-market-cm-design/)
- [What happens to LNG market if Henry Hub rises?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/what-happens-to-lng-market-if-henry-hub-rises/) - Timera Energy look at the impact of a risk in US Henry Hub prices on LNG market pricing and set out 5 commercial implications.
- [TTF rallies despite high European storage levels](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-rallies-despite-high-european-storage-levels/)
- [Eastern Europe DA spreads blow out in July](https://timera-energy.com/blog/see-da-spreads-blow-out-in-july/)
- [Atlantic spot charter rates spurred by rising Asian LNG demand](https://timera-energy.com/blog/atlantic-spot-charter-rates-spurred-by-rising-asian-lng-demand/)
- [TenneT forecasts increasing NL grid fees across next 10 years](https://timera-energy.com/blog/tennet-forecasts-increasing-nl-grid-fees-across-next-10-years/)
- [European BESS offtake & financing - state of play](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-bess-offtake-financing-state-of-play/)
- [Can the UK decarbonise power by 2035?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/can-the-uk-decarbonise-power-by-2035/)
- [EPEX glitch causes huge price volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/epex-glitch-causes-huge-price-volatility/) - Timera Energy look at the recent decoupling on the European power exchange, and the impacts across the various markets.
- [Key changes are impacting BESS constraint revenue capture](https://timera-energy.com/blog/key-changes-are-impacting-bess-constraint-revenue-capture/)
- [Asian demand flex is setting global gas prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/asian-demand-flex-is-setting-global-gas-prices/) - Timera Energy summarise the rapidly rising importance of Asian LNG demand response in setting global gas prices, define 5 key sources & look at commercial implications.
- [Timera publishes Q2 Global Gas Report](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-publishes-q2-global-gas-report/) - Timera Energy publishes their Q2 2024 update of the Timera global gas service.
- [Join our BESS webinar “Germany vs Netherlands” on 10th July](https://timera-energy.com/blog/join-our-bess-webinar-germany-vs-netherlands-on-10th-july/) - “Germany vs Netherlands” – how battery returns & investment cases stack up in 2 key current focus markets for BESS investors.
- [5 takeaways on German BESS investment](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-takeaways-on-german-bess-investment/) - Timera Energy summarise the state of play for German BESS investment with 5 takeaways on key value drivers.
- [European gas storage surplus shrinking](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-storage-surplus-shrinking/) - Timera Energy look at how the recent lower LNG imports take storage levels back within 5 year range.
- [Timera launches Germany battery service](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-launches-germany-battery-service/) - Timera Energy recently launched a quarterly subscription service to support German BESS investors.
- [5 charts show drivers of Q2 gas price recovery](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-charts-show-drivers-of-q2-gas-price-recovery/) - Timera Energy set out 5 charts that summarise the gas market state of play, the drivers behind recent price recovery & whether it is set to continue.
- [Comparing intraday liquidity in European power markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/comparing-intraday-liqudity-in-european-power-markets/) - Timera Energy show analysis comparing intraday liquidity & price distributions across key market & explore the importance of this for BESS investment
- [Gas storage returns remain high vs pre-crisis](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-storage-returns-remain-high-vs-pre-crisis/) - Timera Energy look at gas storage value capture across the 12 months vs recent history & explore key challenges & opportunities for storage asset owners & investors.
- [Netherlands BESS in focus as grid fees reformed](https://timera-energy.com/blog/netherlands-bess-in-focus-as-grid-fees-reformed/) - Timera Energy look at Dutch grid fee reform, how it impacts BESS value capture and why BESS investor focus is shifting to the Netherlands.
- [Timera supports InfraVia’s investment in GIGA Storage](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-supports-infravias-investment-in-giga-storage/)
- [Italian battery investment case: “A new model”](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italian-battery-investment-case-a-new-model/) - Timera Energy set out & discuss analysis on the drivers & impact of Italy’s new MACSE storage support scheme & what it means for BESS investment cases.
- [Russian LNG trade faces growing headwinds](https://timera-energy.com/blog/russian-lng-trade-faces-growing-headwinds/) - EU ban on transhipments would force longer journeys for Arc7 carriers to NE Asia customers causing further disruption to Russia’s LNG export ambitions.
- [Ranked interconnector value capture across Europe](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ranked-interconnector-value-capture-across-europe/)
- [Iberia dominates European Hydrogen Bank auction](https://timera-energy.com/blog/iberia-dominates-european-hydrogen-bank-auction/)
- [Major shifts in LNG portfolio value: “Flex in focus”](https://timera-energy.com/blog/major-shifts-in-lng-portfolio-value-flex-in-focus/) - We set out analysis showing the evolution of global gas market pricing dynamics into 2025 & its impact on LNG asset value
- [Hydro levels drive surge in negative prices in Iberia](https://timera-energy.com/blog/hydro-levels-drive-surge-in-negative-prices-in-iberia/)
- [Italian rules shifting in favour of merchant BESS](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italian-rules-shifting-in-favour-of-merchant-bess/) - We look at the investor impact of the latest MACSE long term contracted BESS support rules as well as analysing 3 different BESS revenue models
- [Market shifting value of Brent LNG contracts](https://timera-energy.com/blog/market-shifting-value-of-brent-lng-contracts/)
- [Negative prices and high BM acceptance drive BESS revenues across the weekend](https://timera-energy.com/blog/negative-prices-and-high-bm-acceptance-drive-bess-revenues-across-the-weekend/)
- [Timera Energy are attending Flame 2024](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-energy-are-attending-flame-2024/)
- [Are 2 key commodities flagging a recovery?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/are-2-key-commodities-flagging-a-recovery/)
- [Italy rolls out new model for BESS investment](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italy-rolls-out-new-model-for-bess-investment/)
- [Asian LNG imports surge as EU demand falls flat](https://timera-energy.com/blog/asian-lng-imports-surge-as-eu-demand-falls-flat/)
- [Join our Italian BESS webinar “A new model” on 24th April](https://timera-energy.com/blog/join-our-italian-bess-webinar-a-new-model-on-24th-april/)
- [Join our LNG webinar “Focus on flex” on 18th April](https://timera-energy.com/blog/join-our-lng-webinar-focus-on-flex-on-18th-april/)
- [German storage neutrality charge extended to 2027](https://timera-energy.com/blog/german-storage-neutrality-charge-extended-to-2027/)
- [Europe’s great gas & power price surge](https://timera-energy.com/blog/europes-great-gas-power-price-surge/)
- [Asian LNG demand vs next wave supply](https://timera-energy.com/blog/asian-lng-demand-vs-next-wave-supply/)
- [Russia-Ukraine gas transit agreement unlikely to persist post-2024](https://timera-energy.com/blog/russia-ukraine-gas-transit-agreement-unlikely-to-persist-post-2024/)
- [Italy vs GB BESS investment presentation from Key Energy conference](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italy-vs-gb-bess-investment-presentation-slides-from-the-key-energy-conference/)
- [Record capacity auction impact on BESS & peaker investment](https://timera-energy.com/blog/record-capacity-auction-impact-on-bess-peaker-investment/)
- [5 energy market surprises for 2024](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-energy-market-surprises-for-2024/)
- [Why the LNG market is focusing on supply contract flex](https://timera-energy.com/blog/why-the-lng-market-is-focusing-on-supply-contract-flex/)
- [Why gas prices have fallen this winter](https://timera-energy.com/blog/why-gas-prices-have-fallen-this-winter/)
- [Impact of new balancing platform on GB BESS](https://timera-energy.com/blog/impact-of-new-balancing-platform-on-gb-bess/)
- [Carbon prices fall alongside European fuel prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/carbon-prices-fall-alongside-european-fuel-prices/)
- [LNG market impact of new shipping emissions rules](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-market-impact-of-new-shipping-emissions-rules/)
- [Italy suspends Picasso aFRR participation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italy-suspends-picasso-afrr-platform-participation/)
- [Timera speaking on Italian BESS at the Key Energy conference in Rimini](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-speaking-on-italian-bess-at-the-key-energy-conference-in-rimini/)
- [German BESS investment slides from UK Energy Storage Summit presentation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/german-bess-investment-slides-from-uk-energy-storage-summit/)
- [We rank gas plant value capture across Europe](https://timera-energy.com/blog/we-rank-gas-plant-value-capture-across-europe/)
- [BESS arbitrage revenue ranked by country & duration](https://timera-energy.com/blog/bess-arbitrage-revenue-ranked-by-country-duration/)
- [T-1 capacity auction clears at £35.79/kW](https://timera-energy.com/blog/t-1-capacity-auction-clears-at-35-79-kw/)
- [US poses regulatory risk to LNG exports](https://timera-energy.com/blog/us-poses-regulatory-risk-to-lng-exports/)
- [UK CfD strike prices increase](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-cfd-strike-prices-increase/)
- [German battery investment opportunities](https://timera-energy.com/blog/german-battery-investment-opportunities/)
- [Global gas prices drop to spur demand](https://timera-energy.com/blog/global-gas-prices-drop-to-spur-demand/)
- [UK carbon allowances diverged from Europe across 2023](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-carbon-allowances-diverged-from-europe-across-2023/)
- [Record end of year European stock level underpins TTF price retreat](https://timera-energy.com/blog/record-end-of-year-european-stock-level-underpins-ttf-price-retreat/)
- [EUA carbon price on the decline](https://timera-energy.com/blog/eua-carbon-price-on-the-decline/)
- [Major energy surprises of 2023](https://timera-energy.com/blog/major-energy-surprises-of-2023/)
- [The impact of Europe’s regas capacity boom](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-impact-of-europes-regas-capacity-boom/)
- [New ancillary auction platform (EAC) sees clearing prices fall sharply](https://timera-energy.com/blog/new-ancillary-auction-platform-eac-sees-clearing-prices-fall-sharply/)
- [Italian battery investment is about to surge](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italian-battery-investment-is-about-to-surge/)
- [5 challenges facing wind](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-challenges-facing-wind/)
- [Belgian CM supports new BESS investment](https://timera-energy.com/blog/belgian-cm-supports-new-bess-investment/)
- [What is setting global gas prices?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/what-is-setting-global-gas-prices/)
- [LNG charter rates rebound](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-charter-rates-rebound/)
- [Competitive advantage: CCGTs vs OCGTs vs engines](https://timera-energy.com/blog/competitive-advantage-ccgts-vs-ocgts-vs-engines/)
- [Meet the Timera team: “A new lens”](https://timera-energy.com/blog/meet-the-timera-team-a-new-lens/)
- [5 factors driving German battery investment](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-factors-driving-german-battery-investment/)
- [Crisis over? European gas market winter outlook](https://timera-energy.com/blog/crisis-over-european-gas-market-winter-outlook/)
- [Germany releases 1.9GW of lignite capacity from reserve amidst gas burn concerns](https://timera-energy.com/blog/germany-releases-1-9gw-of-lignite-capacity-from-reserve-amidst-gas-burn-concerns/)
- [Two macro drivers spell volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/two-macro-drivers-spell-volatility/)
- [Balancing revenue capture jumps for GB batteries](https://timera-energy.com/blog/balancing-revenue-capture-jumps-for-gb-batteries/)
- [Crude oil prices hit 95 $/bbl](https://timera-energy.com/blog/crude-oil-prices-hit-95-bbl/)
- [Watch for a shift in gas price volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/watch-for-a-shift-in-gas-price-volatility/)
- [Why are GB batteries capturing more BM value in 2023?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/why-are-gb-batteries-capturing-more-bm-value-in-2023/)
- [Energy investment impact of surging cost of capital](https://timera-energy.com/blog/energy-investment-impact-of-surging-cost-of-capital/)
- [Why is battery colocation not scaling in Europe?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/why-is-battery-colocation-not-scaling-in-europe/)
- [LNG charter rates climb amidst steep contango](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-charter-rates-climb-amidst-steep-contango/)
- [LNG contract value swinging with gas & oil markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-contract-value-swinging-with-gas-oil-markets/)
- [Negative prices growing with RES in GB power market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/negative-prices-growing-with-res-in-gb-power-market/)
- [Recap on Russian gas pipeline exports to Europe](https://timera-energy.com/blog/recap-on-russian-gas-pipeline-exports-to-europe/)
- [Gas market ‘state of play’ in 5 charts](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-market-state-of-play-in-5-charts/)
- [UK carbon allowances fall sharply beneath EU ETS](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-carbon-allowances-fall-sharply-beneath-eu-ets/)
- [Big TTF rally underscores gas market volatility in current regime](https://timera-energy.com/blog/big-ttf-rally-underscores-gas-market-volatility-in-current-regime/)
- [TTF loses premium to NWE LNG](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-loses-premium-to-nwe-lng/)
- [Forward peak CSS shows continued requirement for CCGT](https://timera-energy.com/blog/forward-peak-css-shows-continued-requirement-for-ccgt/)
- [Timera sponsoring & presenting at 2024 Energy Storage Summit](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-sponsoring-presenting-at-2024-energy-storage-summit/)
- [Regime driven gas pricing dynamics](https://timera-energy.com/blog/regime-driven-gas-pricing-dynamics/)
- [Join our webinar on LNG market evolution on 14th Jun 2023](https://timera-energy.com/blog/webinar-timera-june-14th/)
- [Timera is recruiting – like a new job?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-is-recruiting-like-a-new-job/)
- [Join our German BESS webinar “The next frontier” on 28th November](https://timera-energy.com/blog/join-our-german-bess-webinar-the-next-frontier-on-28th-november/)
- [Timera publishes Global Gas Report](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-publishes-global-gas-report/)
- [Join our LNG webinar “A new lens” on 17th October](https://timera-energy.com/blog/join-our-lng-webinar-a-new-lens-on-17th-october/)
- [Timera Energy are speaking at Gastech 2023](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-energy-are-speaking-at-gastech-2023/)
- [China leads rebound in Asian LNG appetite](https://timera-energy.com/blog/china-leads-rebound-in-asian-lng-appetite/)
- [Power prices plunge negative in Western Europe](https://timera-energy.com/blog/power-prices-plunge-negative-in-western-europe/)
- [Timera launches quarterly Global Gas Service](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-launches-quarterly-global-gas-service/)
- [German BESS investment taking off](https://timera-energy.com/blog/german-bess-investment-taking-off/)
- [Russian & LNG imports: a rebalancing act](https://timera-energy.com/blog/russian-lng-imports-a-rebalancing-act/) - German and Finnish approval of the Nordstream 2 pipeline over the last two weeks helps pave the way for Russia to continue its role as predominant gas exporter to Europe. Russian gas will compete with LNG supply to meet growing European import demand in the 2020s. But will Russian or LNG imports replace the seasonal
- [Interpreting TTF implied volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/interpreting-ttf-implied-volatility/) - The European gas options market is still in a relative state of infancy versus for example the crude options market. But as TTF gas hub liquidity grows, the options market continues to mature. This is improving the quality of information on volatility expectations that can be implied from TTF option prices. These implied volatility data
- [Will LNG bunkering transform the LNG market?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/will-lng-bunkering-transform-the-lng-market/) - Tightening emissions standards are supporting structural growth in the uptake of LNG as a shipping fuel. Europe has led this transition, dominating the fleet of existing vessels and associated infrastructure. But growth is now accelerating globally. LNG bunkering has created considerable excitement as a new source of demand in the LNG market. Today we look
- [How flex price signals differ across TTF vs NBP](https://timera-energy.com/blog/how-flex-price-signals-differ-across-ttf-vs-nbp/) - The European gas market is formed around a well interconnected network of traded hubs. Liquidity at most of these hubs is limited to a short-term horizon close to delivery. When it comes to forward market liquidity, there are only two hubs that count. The Dutch TTF hub sits at the commercial centre of the European
- [Building a viable battery margin stack](https://timera-energy.com/blog/building-a-viable-battery-margin-stack/) - We flagged a ‘take off’ in European merchant battery investment as one of our 5 surprises to watch out for in 2019. Investment momentum has been accelerating as the year progresses, and merchant business models have become the dominant focus. Investment in Europe is being led by the UK and German power markets, with high
- [Major shifts in German power pricing dynamics](https://timera-energy.com/blog/major-shifts-in-german-power-pricing-dynamics/) - Renewable output is growing fast across North West European power markets. Wind & solar output in Germany accounts for more than 30% of demand. Include other renewables (e.g. hydro & biomass) and this share rises to more than 40%. Rising renewables penetration is resulting in an increasing number of periods where thermal plants are completely
- [German & Dutch CCGT value case](https://timera-energy.com/blog/german-dutch-ccgt-value-case/) - Between 2005-10 there was a mini boom in CCGT investment in Germany and the Netherlands. These projects reached FID against a backdrop of relatively healthy gas-fired generation margins (spark spreads). But by the time CCGTs were commissioned, owners were confronted by a relentless decline in margins. Renewable penetration gathered pace eroding CCGT load factors. Large
- [European gas storage value is recovering](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-storage-value-is-recovering/) - Three structural drivers are tightening the gas flexibility balance across Europe: Rising import dependency: resulting in a reliance on longer & less flexible supply chains (e.g. LNG, Russian pipeline gas) Power sector transition: with rising renewable intermittency and the closure of nuclear & coal plants increasing the role of gas-fired power plants in providing flexible
- [The decarbonisation tipping point?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-decarbonisation-tipping-point/) - ‘tipping point’: the point at which a series of small changes or incidents becomes significant enough to cause a larger, more important change. Carbon dioxide concentration in the earth’s atmosphere has risen 40% since the industrial revolution. Half of that increase has occurred since 1980. And global carbon emissions continue to steadily rise. There is
- [Emerging influences of the German power market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/emerging-influences-of-the-german-power-market/) - In a recent article we set out the impact of the rapid increase in renewable production on the German market. Because Germany is at the core of the European power market, with large volumes of interconnection to its neighbours, Germany is exporting the impact of its aggressive renewable policy across North West Europe. Overcapacity in
- [Gaining an edge: LNG portfolio analysis](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gaining-an-edge-lng-portfolio-analysis/) - Commercial evolution of the LNG market has accelerated over the last three years. This is the result of new and more flexible sources of supply. But it also reflects new market players, rising liquidity and a transition to shorter & more flexible contracting. As the LNG market grows and matures, substantial value creation opportunities are
- [LNG market evolution in 5 charts](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-market-evolution-in-5-charts/) - Several key structural market trends are reshaping the way that LNG is transacted. The US has emerged as a key provider of destination flexible supply, with almost 100 mtpa of committed export capacity. Destination clause restrictions in existing supply contracts are also being relaxed or removed, helped by the negotiating balance swinging in favour of
- [2013: Study the past if you would define the future](https://timera-energy.com/blog/2013-study-the-past-if-you-would-define-the-future/) - With Christmas rapidly approaching this is the last blog article for 2013. We will be back next year on the 6th January. But to finish off this year we take a step back and review 2013 energy pricing dynamics with a view to trying to better understand what may lie ahead. We also explore how a
- [UK Capacity Market to become a reality in 2014](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-capacity-market-to-become-a-reality-in-2014/) - 2014 will mark the end of the energy only power market that has served the UK over the past two decades. By the end of this year the energy market will co-exist with a Capacity Market. The UK government has announced that it will stick to its aggressive implementation timetable. So barring any embarrassing delay,
- [A tour of European capacity markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/a-tour-of-european-capacity-markets/)
- [Early warning signs of an emerging markets problem?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/early-warning-signs-of-an-emerging-markets-problem/) - In our last article of 2013 we posed a question around the vulnerability of energy markets to an economic shock. We specifically considered the case of fallout from the current unprecedented global experiment in monetary expansion. By the end of January 2014 it looks like there could be a potential candidate to test our hypothesis
- [Creating LNG portfolio value: a practical case study](https://timera-energy.com/blog/creating-lng-portfolio-value-a-practical-case-study/)
- [European gas prices – how low can they go?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-prices-how-low-can-they-go/)
- [The flexibility to decarbonise European power](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-flexibility-to-decarbonise-european-power/)
- [Pricing dynamics in the new UK capacity market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/pricing-dynamics-in-the-new-uk-capacity-market/) - Changes to the UK power market have been coming thick and fast this decade. The implementation of a Capacity Market in November 2014 is just one of a growing list of market reforms. But the Capacity Market is set to have a unique & structural impact on UK power market dynamics and asset values. Replacing an
- [How is the next LNG wave shaping up?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/how-is-the-next-lng-wave-shaping-up/)
- [Oil price plunge & the LNG market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/oil-price-plunge-and-the-lng-market/) - Dont post in this box - for a new chart click 'add row' above. For a new sub heading within the text of an article, highlight the heading and change from paragraph to 'Heading 2'
- [Two case studies of renewable intermittency](https://timera-energy.com/blog/two-case-studies-of-renewable-intermittency/)
- [Three parallel crises, one energy solution?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/three-parallel-crises-one-energy-solution/)
- [Flex to meet the intraday swing challenge](https://timera-energy.com/blog/flex-to-meet-the-intraday-swing-challenge/)
- [The looming German capacity crunch](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-looming-german-capacity-crunch/)
- [Can gas prices go negative like oil?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/can-gas-prices-go-negative-like-oil/)
- [LNG oversupply & its impact on Europe](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-oversupply-its-impact-on-europe/)
- [Evolution of flex asset offtake contracts](https://timera-energy.com/blog/evolution-of-flex-asset-offtake-contracts/)
- [2020 Timera project focus & Covid-19](https://timera-energy.com/blog/2020-timera-project-focus-covid-19/)
- [What battery durations are investable?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/what-battery-durations-are-investable/)
- [Merchant value of European LNG regas capacity](https://timera-energy.com/blog/merchant-value-of-european-lng-regas-capacity/)
- [Asian LNG demand resilience in 5 charts](https://timera-energy.com/blog/asian-lng-demand-resilience-in-5-charts/)
- [UK battery vs pump storage margins](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-battery-vs-pump-storage-margins/)
- [European gas: clearing the market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-clearing-the-market/)
- [Decarbonising European gas: a framework](https://timera-energy.com/blog/decarbonising-european-gas-a-framework/)
- [5 factors driving hydrogen investment](https://timera-energy.com/blog/switching-is-back-with-co2-driving-gas-prices/)
- [Flex assets to reduce renewable portfolio risk](https://timera-energy.com/blog/flex-assets-to-reduce-renewable-portfolio-risk/)
- [US gas driving TTF & LNG prices: 4 charts](https://timera-energy.com/blog/us-gas-driving-ttf-lng-prices-4-charts/)
- [What we know about the new UK carbon scheme](https://timera-energy.com/blog/what-we-know-about-the-new-uk-carbon-scheme/)
- [Europe backs hydrogen to decarbonise gas](https://timera-energy.com/blog/europe-backs-hydrogen-to-decarbonise-gas/)
- [USD flagging a major gas & power price recovery?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/usd-flagging-a-major-gas-power-price-recovery/)
- [Building a hydrogen electrolyser investment case](https://timera-energy.com/blog/building-a-hydrogen-electrolyser-investment-case/)
- [Creating value via colocating batteries](https://timera-energy.com/blog/creating-value-via-colocating-batteries/)
- [Gas storage margin recovery continues](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-storage-margin-recovery-continues/)
- [Quantifying battery value](https://timera-energy.com/blog/quantifying-battery-value/)
- [Italian battery investment gaining momentum](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italian-battery-investment-gaining-momentum/)
- [French nukes, winter stress & flex asset value](https://timera-energy.com/blog/french-nukes-winter-stress-flex-asset-value/)
- [Spot volatility driving gas storage value](https://timera-energy.com/blog/spot-volatility-driving-gas-storage-value/)
- [LNG portfolios: to hedge or not to hedge?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-portfolios-to-hedge-or-not-to-hedge/)
- [UK power flex issues & capacity auctions](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-power-flex-issues-capacity-auctions/)
- [European battery investment wave](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-battery-investment-wave/)
- [Russian gas flow strategy back in focus](https://timera-energy.com/blog/russian-gas-flow-strategy-back-in-focus/)
- [LNG contract valuation case study: 'flex ain’t free'](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-contract-valuation-case-study-flex-aint-free/)
- [Impact of a Biden win & Covid vaccine](https://timera-energy.com/blog/impact-of-a-biden-win-covid-vaccine/)
- [UK capacity prices drive new flex investment](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-capacity-prices-drive-new-flex-investment/)
- [Global gas market rebalancing](https://timera-energy.com/blog/global-gas-market-rebalancing/)
- [Carbon driving gas, power & LNG prices higher](https://timera-energy.com/blog/carbon-driving-gas-power-and-lng-prices-higher/)
- [A CCGT window of opportunity](https://timera-energy.com/blog/a-ccgt-window-of-opportunity/)
- [The value impact of LNG carbon emissions](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-value-impact-of-lng-carbon-emissions/)
- [The major energy surprises of 2020](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-major-energy-surprises-of-2020/)
- [The transformation of European power markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-transformation-of-european-power-markets/)
- [5 energy surprises for 2021](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-energy-surprises-for-2021/)
- [Structural LNG market tightening is underway](https://timera-energy.com/blog/structural-lng-market-tightening-is-underway/)
- [LNG demand state of play in 5 charts](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-demand-state-of-play-in-5-charts/)
- [Firming revenue to drive UK battery surge in 2021](https://timera-energy.com/blog/firming-revenue-to-drive-uk-battery-surge-in-2021/)
- [Battery investment focus shifts to Spain](https://timera-energy.com/blog/battery-investment-focus-shifts-to-spain/)
- [5 factors driving hydrogen investment](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-factors-driving-hydrogen-investment/)
- [5 challenges facing LNG Middle Office and Risk teams](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-challenges-facing-lng-middle-office-and-risk-teams/)
- [4 drivers of surging European energy prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/4-drivers-of-surging-european-energy-prices/)
- [Carbon, closures & capacity crunch in Germany](https://timera-energy.com/blog/carbon-closures-capacity-crunch-in-germany/)
- [North Africa responds to European tightness](https://timera-energy.com/blog/north-africa-responds-to-european-tightness/)
- [European gas storage value dynamics](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-storage-value-dynamics/)
- [Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism implications](https://timera-energy.com/blog/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-implications/) - The EU is better known for considered diplomacy than picking fights. But it has come out swinging punches with its approach to a carbon border tax. EU assertiveness in laying out a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is driven to a large extent by political and economic necessity. The ‘Fit for 55’ and ‘net zero’
- [Drivers of the JKM vs TTF price relationship](https://timera-energy.com/blog/drivers-of-the-jkm-vs-ttf-price-relationship/)
- [5 implications of the UK’s CCUS push](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-implications-of-the-uks-ccus-push/)
- [Backtesting UK battery revenues](https://timera-energy.com/blog/backtesting-uk-battery-revenues/)
- [The German coal phase out challenge](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-german-coal-phase-out-challenge/)
- [Breaking down US LNG contract value](https://timera-energy.com/blog/breaking-down-us-lng-contract-value/)
- [From Russia with Love](https://timera-energy.com/blog/from-russia-with-love/)
- [Brent price breakout & decarbonisation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/brent-price-breakout-decarbonisation/)
- [The urgent need for German flex](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-urgent-need-for-german-flex/)
- [How the market is pricing gas supply flex](https://timera-energy.com/blog/how-the-market-is-pricing-gas-supply-flex/)
- [5 factors that will drive Spanish capacity pricing](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-factors-that-will-drive-spanish-capacity-pricing/)
- [Changes to UK battery ancillary revenues](https://timera-energy.com/blog/changes-to-uk-battery-ancillary-revenues/)
- [5 emerging trends in 2021](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-emerging-trends-in-2021/)
- [Green hydrogen investment case drivers](https://timera-energy.com/blog/green-hydrogen-investment-case-drivers/)
- [Belgium capacity auction defines path to post nuclear future](https://timera-energy.com/blog/belgium-capacity-auction-defines-path-to-post-nuclear-future/)
- [5 charts show why gas & power prices are surging](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-charts-show-why-gas-power-prices-are-surging/)
- [Impact of Russian flow increase on gas & power markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/impact-of-russian-flow-increase-on-gas-power-markets/)
- [The long duration flexibility challenge](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-long-duration-flexibility-challenge/)
- [Russian invasion impact on gas & power prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/russian-invasion-impact-on-gas-power-prices/)
- [Record UK capacity price underpins flex investment](https://timera-energy.com/blog/record-uk-capacity-price-underpins-flex-investment/)
- [UK peaker margins explode: a case study in flex](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-peaker-margins-explode-a-case-study-in-flex/)
- [The UK’s rapidly emerging power flex deficit](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-uks-rapidly-emerging-power-flex-deficit/)
- [Freight rate surge driving LNG market pricing](https://timera-energy.com/blog/freight-rate-surge-driving-lng-market-pricing/)
- [Regime shift in LNG market as Europe pivots from Russia](https://timera-energy.com/blog/regime-shift-in-lng-market-as-europe-pivots-from-russia/)
- [5 enduring impacts of the current energy crisis](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-enduring-impacts-of-the-current-energy-crisis/)
- [The major energy surprises of 2021](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-major-energy-surprises-of-2021/)
- [French nuclear driven power market squeeze](https://timera-energy.com/blog/french-nuclear-driven-power-market-squeeze/)
- [5 energy surprises for 2022](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-energy-surprises-for-2022/)
- [European flex erosion driving higher LNG market volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-flex-erosion-driving-higher-lng-market-volatility/)
- [Battery investment cycle protects margin downside](https://timera-energy.com/blog/battery-investment-cycle-protects-margin-downside/)
- [The European gas market shock in animation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-pricing-drivers/)
- [What the LNG charter rate crash signals for gas prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/what-the-lng-charter-rate-crash-signals-for-gas-prices/)
- [Impact of extreme volatility on energy trading businesses](https://timera-energy.com/blog/impact-of-extreme-volatility-on-energy-trading-businesses/)
- [Impact of electrification on power demand](https://timera-energy.com/blog/impact-of-electrification-on-power-demand/)
- [Prices across Europe's gas hubs diverge](https://timera-energy.com/blog/prices-across-europes-gas-hubs-diverge/)
- [The evolution of power demand shape](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-evolution-of-power-demand-shape/)
- [Investment in hydrogen peakers](https://timera-energy.com/blog/investment-in-hydrogen-peakers/)
- [Seismic shifts in LNG portfolio value under new regime](https://timera-energy.com/blog/seismic-shifts-in-lng-portfolio-value-under-new-regime/)
- [How wind is driving up balancing costs](https://timera-energy.com/blog/how-wind-is-driving-up-balancing-costs/)
- [Making sense of European energy intervention](https://timera-energy.com/blog/making-sense-of-european-energy-intervention/)
- [Regas value under the new LNG market regime](https://timera-energy.com/blog/regas-value-under-the-new-lng-market-regime/)
- [Battery value uplift from constraint management](https://timera-energy.com/blog/battery-value-uplift-from-constraint-management/)
- [The European vs Asian battle for LNG](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-european-vs-asian-battle-for-lng/)
- [Record European LNG imports into winter](https://timera-energy.com/blog/record-european-lng-imports-into-winter/)
- [The realities of slashing Russian gas dependence](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-realities-of-slashing-russian-gas-dependence/)
- [German power market scrambling for capacity](https://timera-energy.com/blog/german-power-market-scrambling-for-capacity/)
- [European gas storage: a case of Jekyll and Hyde?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-storage-a-case-of-jekyll-and-hyde/)
- [European energy crisis spreading globally](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-energy-crisis-spreading-globally/)
- [Structural transition in the UK battery revenue stack](https://timera-energy.com/blog/structural-transition-in-the-uk-battery-revenue-stack/)
- [Europe’s power crisis overtaking gas crisis](https://timera-energy.com/blog/europes-power-crisis-overtaking-gas-crisis/)
- [Eye of the storm: LNG portfolio stress & opportunities](https://timera-energy.com/blog/eye-of-the-storm-lng-portfolio-stress-opportunities/)
- [Europe needs to tackle energy demand to solve crisis](https://timera-energy.com/blog/europe-needs-to-tackle-energy-demand-to-solve-crisis-2/)
- [The world remains focused on European gas prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-world-remains-focused-on-european-gas-prices/)
- [GB batteries confront ancillary saturation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gb-batteries-confront-ancillary-saturation/)
- [LNG supply response to European demand surge](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-supply-response-to-european-demand-surge/)
- [Backtest of GB battery revenue capture](https://timera-energy.com/blog/backtest-of-gb-battery-revenue-capture/)
- [Could gas & power prices plunge this summer?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/could-gas-power-prices-plunge-this-summer/)
- [Markets are pricing in a sharp recession](https://timera-energy.com/blog/markets-are-pricing-in-a-sharp-recession/)
- [UK hydrogen investment support: a case study](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-hydrogen-investment-support-a-case-study/)
- [Meet the Timera team: ‘Regime change’ LNG webinar](https://timera-energy.com/blog/meet-the-timera-team-regime-change-lng-webinar/)
- [Major energy surprises of 2022](https://timera-energy.com/blog/major-energy-surprises-of-2022/)
- [Sourcing green power for electrolyser projects](https://timera-energy.com/blog/sourcing-green-power-for-electrolyser-projects/)
- [5 energy surprises for 2023](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-2023-predictions/)
- [Gas storage value in a post-crisis market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-storage-value-in-a-post-crisis-market/)
- [‘Batteries beyond ancillaries': meet the Timera team](https://timera-energy.com/blog/batteries-beyond-ancillaries/)
- [EU battery investment opportunities](https://timera-energy.com/blog/eu-battery-investment-opportunities/)
- [5 charts explain gas & power price slump into 2023](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-charts-explain-gas-power-price-slump-into-2023/)
- [A framework for LNG market evolution](https://timera-energy.com/blog/a-framework-for-lng-market-evolution/)
- [Putting US LNG contracts to the test](https://timera-energy.com/blog/us-lng-contract-analysis/)
- [Battery investment taking off across the EU](https://timera-energy.com/blog/battery-investment-taking-off-across-the-eu/)
- [Flex response drives ‘what’s next’ in the LNG market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/flex-response-drives-whats-next-in-the-lng-market/)
- [Battery investors confront revenue shift in 2023](https://timera-energy.com/blog/battery-investors-confront-revenue-shift-in-2023/)
- [Global focus on the value of European regas capacity](https://timera-energy.com/blog/global-focus-on-the-value-of-european-regas-capacity/)
- [Implications of a surge in UK capacity prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/implications-of-a-surge-in-uk-capacity-prices/)
- [What will set power prices in Germany?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/what-will-set-power-prices-in-germany/)
- [Gas & power markets reconnect as crisis eases](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-power-markets-reconnect-as-crisis-eases/)
- [Are battery revenues falling in 2023?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/are-battery-revenues-falling-in-2023/)
- [Meet the Timera team: What’s next in global gas markets?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/meet-the-timera-team-whats-next-in-global-gas-markets/)
- [Banking crisis threat to energy markets?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/banking-crisis-threat-to-energy-markets/)
- [Watch for a wave of UK hydrogen FIDs](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-hydrogen-electrolyser-investment/)
- [Battery revenue uplift from constraint management](https://timera-energy.com/blog/battery-revenue-uplift-from-constraint-management/)
- [The great EU regas capacity sale](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-great-eu-regas-capacity-sale/)
- [Asian demand response to lower LNG prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/asian-demand-response-to-lower-lng-prices/) - The Economics 101 textbook tells us that ‘if prices fall, demand should rise… all other things being equal’. It is an unfortunate reality of the real world that all other things are rarely equal. This leaves us with the practical challenge of trying to understand how LNG demand may respond to lower prices. Price-induced LNG
- [Contracting for market access via a 3rd party](https://timera-energy.com/blog/contracting-for-market-access-via-a-3rd-party/) - A major transition is taking place with European energy asset ownership structures. Thermal power and midstream gas assets have traditionally been owned by utilities and producers. But asset write-downs, balance sheet pressure and changes in strategic focus are paving the way for large scale asset divestment. Power plants, interconnectors, pipelines, gas storage facilities and midstream
- [Plant closure: drivers of the decision to close](https://timera-energy.com/blog/plant-closure-drivers-of-the-decision-to-close/) - European power markets are facing a demographic issue. Flexible thermal generation capacity is ageing at a faster rate than it is being replaced. This phenomenon is consistent with the intentions of policy makers as Europe moves towards decarbonization of the power sector. Thermal capacity is steadily being replaced by investment in renewable generation assets. But
- [At the flicks: gas curve animation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/at-the-flicks-gas-curve-animation/) - Energy markets are awash with charts. We work in a data intensive industry and a good chart can be worth a thousand words. But charts by nature provide a static view of factors such as price, volume, value & risk. Chart animation adds an additional dimension: time. That can help a lot with interpreting the
- [Boosting midstream asset value capture](https://timera-energy.com/blog/boosting-midstream-asset-value-capture/) - This decade has been a tough one for owners of flexible midstream gas assets such as storage, pipelines & regas terminals. Asset returns have been hit by a post financial crisis overhang of supply flexibility in the European gas market. At the same time, market drivers are structurally altering the risk/return profile of midstream assets.
- [Evidence of a 2016 recovery in gas price volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/evidence-of-a-2016-recovery-in-gas-price-volatility/) - Prompt gas price volatility is the key market price signal for short term supply flexibility response. Volatility plays a key role in determining the risk that gas suppliers face in supplying customer portfolios. Volatility also has a strong influence on the value of flexible supply assets. For example, it is an important driver of capacity
- [Commercial implications of the UK capacity market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/commercial-implications-of-the-uk-capacity-market/) - The countdown has commenced to the implementation of the UK Capacity Market. Between now and November, the UK power market will be focused on the volume and pricing of capacity delivered in the first auction. And the rest of Europe will be watching, given capacity markets are the subject of whiteboard sketches across the offices
- [New UK capacity market information & its impact](https://timera-energy.com/blog/new-uk-capacity-market-information-its-impact/) - The UK government has released further details of its intended approach for the 1st capacity auction, now scheduled for December 2014. These provide information on factors such as bidding rules, auction process and the publishing of information to the market. DECC has also confirmed that 15 year capacity agreements are available for new build plant
- [Risk management of optionality in energy portfolios](https://timera-energy.com/blog/risk-management-of-optionality-in-energy-portfolios/) - This is the third in a series of articles on the principles of energy risk management, written by Nick Perry. Energy portfolios are rich with physical optionality. For example, options to take different volumes of delivery (e.g. supply contracts), options to convert one type of energy into another (e.g. gas into power) and options to
- [Tighter UK market, higher spreads & volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/tighter-uk-market-higher-spreads-volatility/) - National Grid has now published its view on the UK power market supply & demand balance going into the current winter. The situation looks very tight. Grid’s numbers show a de-rated system capacity margin of just 4.1%. In volume terms that is only 2.3 GW. That is less than the capacity of one of the
- [Gas vs coal switching in Europe: numerical analysis](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-vs-coal-switching-in-europe-numerical-analysis/) - Over the 2016-19 period, LNG liquefaction capacity under construction is set to increase global LNG supply by approximately 150 bcma. Current rates of global LNG demand growth are not high enough to absorb this swell in new supply. Europe will play a key role in balancing the global gas market, given the status of liquid
- [Long term contract pricing: 5 key drivers](https://timera-energy.com/blog/long-term-contract-pricing-5-key-drivers/) - Long term contracts play an important role in enabling the owners of flexible gas and power assets to monetise asset value and manage market risk. Common examples in power markets include tolling contracts, power purchase agreements and fuel supply agreements. Just as common in gas markets are capacity contracts on gas storage facilities, pipelines and
- [Brexit impact on European energy markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/brexit-impact-on-european-energy-markets/) - The Brexit ‘Leave’ vote was a genuine market shock. On the day of the referendum, markets were pricing in a more than 80% chance that the ‘Remain’ vote would prevail. The surprise result has been reflected in financial market volatility since votes were counted on Friday 24th June. This volatility has in turn fed through
- [UK coal plants & security of supply](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-coal-plants-security-of-supply/) - The UK government announced in November 2015 that all UK coal plants would be closed by 2025. This was a logical decision in the context of UK emissions policy, and a transition to CCGTs seemed easier in a world of falling gas prices. Few details were provided at the time about how these coal closures
- [US exports and the trans-Atlantic cost question](https://timera-energy.com/blog/us-exports-and-the-trans-atlantic-cost-question/) - The costs of moving LNG from the US to Europe was one of the key focus points at last week’s Flame conference. A number of divergent views were presented on the level of costs that US exporters need to recover in order to send LNG to Europe. However there was a consensus that the trans-Atlantic
- [Charter rate surge shakes LNG market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/charter-rate-surge-shakes-lng-market/) - LNG vessel spot charter rates have exploded since late September. If you are not in the business of chartering boats you may be tempted by an obvious question… ‘who cares?’ Spot charter rates have much broader market implications. The delivery of LNG cargoes is increasingly being optimised against spot price signals. Margin opportunities in moving
- [Introducing LNG Bridge](https://timera-energy.com/blog/introducing-lng-bridge/)
- [Rosie Read joins Timera as a Director](https://timera-energy.com/blog/rosie-read-joins-timera-as-a-director-2/)
- [Utility asset sales: where are the value opportunities?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/utility-asset-sales-where-are-the-value-opportunities/) - The article below is our last before the summer break. We will be back with more in late August. Three weeks ago we set out the case for an unprecedented sale of conventional supply assets by European utilities. French and Italian utilities alone have announced their intention to sell upwards of €30 bn of assets.
- [Long term contracting to support asset financing](https://timera-energy.com/blog/long-term-contracting-to-support-asset-financing/) - Infrastructure investors are set to feature as prominent buyers of conventional supply assets, as utilities ramp up asset sales in Europe. European utilities have traditionally had the capacity to hold power stations and midstream gas assets on balance sheet. But infrastructure and private equity funds have a much greater focus on creative financing in order
- [The UK’s battle for new capacity: peakers vs CCGTs](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-uks-battle-for-new-capacity-peakers-vs-ccgts/) - An aggressive government capacity target in the Dec 2016 UK capacity auction is fuelling an intense battle to deliver new power plants. As much as 5GW of new capacity may be required to meet the target. Developers are competing to acquire lucrative 15 year capacity agreements, with indexed annual fixed payments that may exceed 30
- [UK peaker investment: here comes consolidation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-peaker-investment-here-comes-consolidation/) - Competition to provide new capacity across the UK’s first three capacity auctions has been dominated by thousands of small peaking units. In contrast, only one relatively small CCGT has bid successfully (Centrica’s 0.4GW Kings Lynn plant). 3.5GW of distribution connected diesel and gas fired peakers have received 15 year capacity agreements across the 2014-16 auctions.
- [European midstream gas infrastructure in focus](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-midstream-gas-infrastructure-in-focus/) - Midstream gas assets are coming back into focus after a lull across the first half of this decade. A 20% decline in European gas demand between 2010 and 2015, caused a pronounced erosion of midstream asset utilisation and capacity value. But the sands are shifting as European gas supply dynamics change and demand continues to
- [Energy from waste investment in the UK](https://timera-energy.com/blog/energy-from-waste-investment-in-the-uk/) - Energy from waste (EfW) is a relatively small but rapidly evolving sector in North West European power markets. EfW investment is being driven by technology improvements, cost reductions and stringent EU guidelines on landfill waste. The UK is Europe’s second largest market for EfW with 12 mtpa of waste consumed in 2016. Other dominant markets
- [Cracking the new US export business model](https://timera-energy.com/blog/cracking-the-new-us-export-business-model/) - 48 mtpa of 2nd wave US export projects are queued to go. They have sites, FERC approval and in many cases good access to infrastructure and skilled labour. Behind this are at least another 50 mtpa of projects currently progressing through the FERC approval process. The problem these projects face is a lack of long
- [Funds taking on market risk to boost returns](https://timera-energy.com/blog/funds-taking-on-market-risk-to-boost-returns/) - Investment funds have made a big push into European energy infrastructure this decade. This has been fuelled by a search for yield in a record low interest rate environment. But yields on regulated infrastructure assets are now also being driven down to historically low levels. A key issue is that energy infrastructure investors are competing
- [Revenue stacks for the ‘big 5’ flexible assets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/revenue-stacks-for-the-big-5-flexible-assets/)
- [The major energy surprises of 2019](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-major-energy-surprises-of-2019/)
- [UK capacity market paying for new build](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-capacity-market-paying-for-new-build/)
- [Hydrogen economics shifting with market prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/hydrogen-economics-shifting-with-market-prices/)
- [Battery storage duration is lengthening](https://timera-energy.com/blog/battery-storage-duration-is-lengthening/)
- [Ukraine TSO calls force majeure on flows via Sokranivka](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ukraine-tso-calls-force-majeure-on-flows-via-sokranivka/)
- [Prompt European gas prices plummet on mild start to winter](https://timera-energy.com/blog/prompt-european-gas-prices-plummet-on-mild-start-to-winter/)
- [Conditions to trigger European price cap less likely in 2023](https://timera-energy.com/blog/conditions-to-trigger-european-price-cap-less-likely-in-2023/)
- [Last gasp for GB coal as thermal retirements loom](https://timera-energy.com/blog/last-gasp-for-gb-coal-as-thermal-retirements-loom/)
- [Russian LNG exports to Europe overtake piped deliveries](https://timera-energy.com/blog/russian-lng-exports-to-europe-overtake-piped-deliveries/)
- [OPEC cuts see recovery in Brent prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/opec-cuts-see-recovery-in-brent-prices/)
- [A short view of European power prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/a-short-view-of-european-power-prices/)
- [Coal drives European power switching anchor lower](https://timera-energy.com/blog/coal-drives-european-power-switching-anchor-lower/)
- [Asian buyers return as LNG prices decline](https://timera-energy.com/blog/asian-buyers-return-as-lng-prices-decline/)
- [G7 & EU aim to bolster LNG investor confidence](https://timera-energy.com/blog/g7-eu-aim-to-bolster-lng-investor-confidence/)
- [Shrinking room in EU gas stocks pressures TTF lower](https://timera-energy.com/blog/shrinking-room-in-eu-gas-stocks-pressures-ttf-lower/)
- [Muted market response to Russian mutiny, but tail risks remain](https://timera-energy.com/blog/muted-market-response-to-russian-mutiny-but-tail-risks-remain/)
- [European gas prices rebound on lower supply](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-prices-rebound-on-lower-supply/)
- [Proxy curves for gas pricing](https://timera-energy.com/blog/proxy-curves-for-gas-pricing/) - European and Asian gas markets are dominated by long term oil indexed pipeline and LNG supply contracts. The pricing of these supply contracts is a key driver of spot and forward market price dynamics. But because these contracts are highly commercially sensitive, publicly available contract price data is hard to come by. This is a particular
- [Beware of proxy risk](https://timera-energy.com/blog/beware-of-proxy-risk/) - Supply contract pricing terms are a key driver of marginal gas pricing dynamics in spot and forward markets. Contract prices can vary widely and terms are typically highly confidential. However similar structures tend to be used to price gas in different regions. For example Russian gas into Germany is predominantly indexed to gas oil and
- [Cracking gas storage and swing valuation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/cracking-gas-storage-and-swing-valuation/) - As the European gas market matures, so does the depth and sophistication of flexibility services available. Swing and storage products form the foundation of the evolving market for gas flexibility in Europe. While these products are not new in the European market, improvements in hub liquidity have driven a rapid shift towards the valuation, optimisation
- [Don’t expect the market to pay for modelled asset value](https://timera-energy.com/blog/dont-expect-the-market-to-pay-for-modelled-asset-value/) - There is a real financial cost associated with the risk around an asset’s earnings. In the case of asset investments, it is conventional wisdom to apply a premium to reflect the cost of risk as part of the investment hurdle rate used to discount asset cashflows. But when it comes to valuing energy contracts, a
- [Gas hub price evolution: applying the framework](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-hub-price-evolution-applying-the-framework/) - There can be little doubt as to the ascendancy of hub pricing as the key driver of commercial decision making in the European gas market. Hub prices have become the benchmark for customer supply contracts and gas portfolio optimisation across North West Europe. The influence of hub prices is also rapidly penetrating to the South
- [Panama Canal upgrade impact on the LNG Market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/panama-canal-upgrade-impact-on-the-lng-market/) - The Panama Canal is synonymous with the global shipping industry, facilitating over 14000 transits per year. But currently it is not a significant feature of the global LNG market. This is because only 21 of the 370 LNG vessels currently in service can pass through the canal. However the Panama Canal expansion project will allow
- [Beware of a shift to central planning](https://timera-energy.com/blog/beware-of-a-shift-to-central-planning/) - The UK’s 2001 implementation of the NETA wholesale power trading arrangements marked the ideological peak of a push towards liberalised wholesale power markets in Europe. Power market liberalisation followed across Europe with varying degrees of enthusiasm. But by the end of last decade, the UK had already signalled a return to a more interventionist policy
- [LNG portfolio implications of a tight vs oversupplied market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-portfolio-implications-of-a-tight-vs-oversupplied-market/) - Until recently there has been a strong market consensus that LNG market tightness will continue well through this decade. But the recent Russia-China pipeline deal and plunging Asian LNG spot prices (shown in Chart 1 below) have shaken that consensus. The LNG industry is becoming increasingly concerned over the possibility of a transition towards a
- [The tipping point in the gas market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-tipping-point-in-the-gas-market/) - The global gas market balance has swung from Asia back towards Europe as oversupply in the LNG market has taken hold. European hubs are providing key global price support as a market of last resort for surplus LNG flows. But how much surplus LNG can Europe absorb without driving hub prices sharply lower? The ability
- [Monetising the value of flexible gas & power assets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/monetising-the-value-of-flexible-gas-power-assets/) - Flexibility value is a term often loosely used in association with gas and power asset optionality. It is a simple and widely accepted principle that asset flexibility has an associated value. But the practicalities of quantifying and monetising this flexibility value are often more complex. Flexibility value has become much more important in European gas
- [Gas rebalancing 1: Clearing the global gas glut](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-rebalancing-1-clearing-the-global-gas-glut-2/) - The global gas market has been shocked by the pace and scale of transition from boom to bust. At the beginning of 2014 suppliers were paying a lofty 20 $/mmbtu for LNG in a market that was anticipated to remain tight for years. By early 2016 producers were struggling to sell surplus cargoes for 5
- [Gas rebalancing 2: the path to price recovery](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-rebalancing-2-the-path-to-price-recovery/) - The first half of this decade saw an LNG investment boom. High gas prices and optimistic Asian demand projections supported a flood of Financial Investment Decisions (FIDs) in new LNG liquefaction capacity. These investment decisions are the source of the current oversupply and depressed gas prices, conditions that are set to dominate the second half
- [Market access contracts: 5 success factors](https://timera-energy.com/blog/market-access-contracts-5-success-factors/) - Owners of gas and power assets in Europe are increasingly contracting 3rd parties to provide market access services. This is a function of changing asset ownership structures. Utilities and producers are selling assets to investment funds which lack the in-house trading & commercial capabilities required to hedge and optimise assets. Last month we wrote an
- [Options confronting gas storage owners](https://timera-energy.com/blog/options-confronting-gas-storage-owners/) - Seasonal storage operators across Europe are confronting a harsh reality. Many slower cycling seasonal storage facilities are not economically viable at current seasonal price spread levels. The seasonal price spread at the key Dutch TTF hub has fallen from levels above 10 €/MWh a decade ago to below 2 €/MWh over the last 5 years.
- [Investment in flexibility: battery storage](https://timera-energy.com/blog/investment-in-flexibility-battery-storage/) - Electricity flexibility investment We are starting the second half of 2017 with a mini-series on investment in electricity system flexibility. Today’s article looks at investment in grid scale battery storage. We then return next week to contrast this with the investment economics of gas-fired peaking generators. We will come back to investment in alternative sources
- [European gas hub linkage to the LNG market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-hub-linkage-to-the-lng-market/) - LNG imports account for about 10% of European gas supply (~60 bcm in 2017). Remaining supply is split fairly evenly between domestic production (dominated by Norway, UK and the Netherlands) and pipeline imports (dominated by Russia). LNG imports may seem a relatively small portion of the supply mix. But they have a disproportionate influence in
- [How FSRU's are impacting LNG market evolution](https://timera-energy.com/blog/how-fsrus-are-impacting-lng-market-evolution/) - Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRU) combine the key elements of an LNG vessel and regas terminal in a single unit. This can significantly reduce the capex costs and lead times for connecting LNG to new markets or access points. It also adds commercial flexibility that is increasing in value as the LNG market evolves.
- [UK battery investment 1: business model transition](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-battery-investment-1-business-model-transition/) - Battery storage broke through the investment viability barrier in the UK’s 2016 capacity auctions. 200MW of batteries were successful in the 2016 Enhanced Frequency Response (EFR) auction. Battery bids were so low that they caused the price for 4 year frequency response contracts to crash below the prevailing shorter term price for Firm Frequency Response
- [Building an energy trading capability](https://timera-energy.com/blog/building-an-energy-trading-capability/) - To trade or not to trade. This has been a philosophical question confronting energy company boards since the liberalization of energy markets. Trading is the core focus of some company business models e.g. Vitol and Mercuria. But other companies have historically had a strong cultural aversion to trading. Perhaps the most prominent of these is
- [UK battery investment 3: building an investment case](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-battery-investment-3-building-an-investment-case/) - The current interest in UK merchant battery investment is supported by some powerful fundamental drivers. The most important of these is a strong case for increasing UK power price volatility as renewable intermittency rises and the supply stack steepens. Policy changes are also creating tailwinds. Adjustments are being implemented in the Balancing Mechanism (BM) that
- [European gas price rally hits reverse](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-price-rally-hits-reverse/) - European hub prices doubled between July 2017 and September 2018. 50% of that move happened in Q3 2018. Through the objective barometer of market price, the European gas market has tightened significantly across 2017-18. The big rally in gas prices between the current and previous summers was fuelled by: LNG volumes being diverted to Asia
- [Major energy surprises of 2018](https://timera-energy.com/blog/major-energy-surprises-of-2018/) - As the Christmas break rapidly approaches, it is time for our traditional year end review of energy market surprises. We approach this in two parts in today’s article: A progress check on the 5 surprises we published at the start of the year A table of 5 things that have surprised us across 2018 given
- [Confronting power market uncertainty](https://timera-energy.com/blog/confronting-power-market-uncertainty/) - Everyone is familiar with the Base, High & Low scenario approach to power market analysis. This is rooted in common sense. What is our best guess of what could happen (Base)? How could we be wrong (High & Low)? However, the large scale roll out of intermittent renewable capacity in power markets has undermined this
- [Decarbonising European gas: the risks & options](https://timera-energy.com/blog/decarbonising-european-gas-the-risks-options/) - The COP-21 Paris climate accord marked the beginning of the end for coal in Europe. Most European countries are taking clear actions to drive coal out of the energy mix through the 2020s. Could gas face a similar future from the 2030s? Gas asset owners and investors are increasingly focused on understanding this risk. While
- [Distribution key to ‘weaponising’ demand side](https://timera-energy.com/blog/distribution-key-to-weaponising-demand-side/) - A more dynamic demand side is a key building block of the energy transition. But the ability to achieve this depends strongly on the rapid evolution of electricity distribution networks and their operators. Investment, technology & policy incentives are converging to transform the role of distribution networks. For example: Embedded capacity: New generation & storage
- [Decarbonising European gas: value chain impact](https://timera-energy.com/blog/decarbonising-european-gas-value-chain-impact/) - Decarbonisation of the European gas market will involve very large scale investment across the supply chain, regardless of the pathway via which it is achieved. European energy companies are in a strong position to lead a gas market transition, just as they are currently doing in the power sector. Gas decarbonisation will require major changes
- [Decarbonising European gas: 3 pathways](https://timera-energy.com/blog/decarbonising-european-gas-3-pathways/) - The origins of the European gas market go back to the discovery of large reserves of natural gas, firstly the giant onshore Dutch Groningen field (1959) and then a string of early UK Southern North Sea fields from 1965. In the early 1970s, a nascent European gas network of around 100 bcm was focused on
- [Timera client work 2020](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-client-work-2020/)
- [Join our battery investment webinar on Nov 24th](https://timera-energy.com/blog/join-our-battery-investment-webinar-on-nov-24th/)
- [Timera team expands](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-team-expands/)
- [Join our LNG ‘Regime change’ webinar on Nov 17th](https://timera-energy.com/blog/join-our-lng-regime-change-webinar-on-nov-17th/)
- [LNG portfolio value – Timera in print](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-portfolio-value-timera-in-print/)
- [Timera launch GB battery investment subscription service](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-launch-gb-battery-investment-subscription-service/)
- [Timera is recruiting](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-is-recruiting-2/)
- [Timera new hires in 2022](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-new-hires-in-2022/)
- [2021 Timera client work review](https://timera-energy.com/blog/2021-timera-client-work-review/)
- [Timera launches LNG Bridge model](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-launches-lng-bridge-model/)
- [Timera client work H1 2021](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-client-work-h1-2021/)
- [Timera launches new website & blog](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-launches-new-website-blog/)
- [Join our webinar on EU battery investment April 20th](https://timera-energy.com/blog/webinar-eu-battery-investment-april-20th/)
- [2022 Timera client work review](https://timera-energy.com/blog/2022-timera-client-work-review/)
- [Timera’s ‘Flex to decarbonise’ briefing pack](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timeras-flex-to-decarbonise-briefing-pack/)
- [An integrated transatlantic seasonal gas storage market?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/an-integrated-transatlantic-seasonal-gas-storage-market/) - European seasonal gas price spreads have been crushed over the last 5 years, falling towards 1 €/MWh. New sources of flexible supply, subdued demand and ample portfolio flexibility have driven the summer/winter price spread well below the level required to support construction of new seasonal storage capacity (7+ €/MWh). But owners of seasonal flexibility (e.g.
- [CCS – Will it take off anytime soon?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ccs-will-it-take-off-anytime-soon/) - This week’s article is the next in a series of Guest Posts written by Howard Rogers, the Director of Natural Gas Research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. I published a paper in 2012 on the subject of CCS entitled (appropriately I thought) ‘Gas with CCS in the UK, Waiting for Godot?’. This line
- [UK spark spreads - light at the end of the tunnel?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-spark-spreads-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel/) - The UK forward power market is in an interesting state of flux. It is difficult to price a commodity which has a value so heavily influenced by government policy intervention. Uncertainty around carbon price support and the introduction of a capacity market have eroded power market liquidity to the extent that some market participants are
- [LNG spot volatility and European price formation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-spot-volatility-and-european-price-formation/) - A rapid expansion in Australian, African and US liquefaction capacity may drive global gas price convergence later this decade. But the global gas market in 2013 is still dominated by the pronounced inter-regional price divergence that has been a feature of the last two years. Since the Fukushima disaster, the average price of LNG delivered
- [Currency wars and European energy portfolios](https://timera-energy.com/blog/currency-wars-and-european-energy-portfolios/) - Foreign exchange market volatility has sprung to life over the Christmas break. Over the last two months the EUR has appreciated 7% against USD and nearly 10% against GBP. Sharp exchange rate moves characterised the first phase of the financial crisis. But these have been dampened over last two years by massive central bank intervention
- [The problem that is gas volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-problem-that-is-gas-volatility/) - Despite gas prices trending higher at European hubs, price volatility has fallen to its lowest level since gas market liberalisation. We have written previously about why we think it is brave to assume the ‘death’ of gas volatility in Europe. Yet the volatility expectations implied in current flexible gas asset values, such as swing and
- [GasTerra virtual storage: a valuation case study](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gasterra-virtual-storage-a-valuation-case-study/) - The GasTerra TTF virtual storage auction held in mid February failed to clear above the reserve price level. GasTerra’s capacity auctions provide a useful benchmark for the market value of European gas storage and swing. They also provide an insight into the difference between the expected value and market value for capacity. GasTerra’s reserve price
- [Southern European gas market convergence](https://timera-energy.com/blog/southern-european-gas-market-convergence/) - Hub price convergence has been one of the great structural changes in the European gas market over the last decade. While North West European hub prices have already largely converged, Southern Europe is now falling into line. The evolution of the Italian PSV hub over the last year is a case study in the power
- [The European gas plant bust is underway](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-european-gas-plant-bust-is-underway/) - The pain being suffered by owners of European gas-fired power plant has escalated over the last 12 months. Weak power demand, subsidised renewable build and relatively high gas prices have conspired to crush gas fired generation margins, as shown in Diagram 1. It is difficult to imagine how market sentiment around gas-fired plant could get
- [European storage response to the NBP price spike](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-storage-response-to-the-nbp-price-spike/) - UK gas prices remain elevated and subject to further volatility as cold weather continues into the spring. One of the key factors in focus is gas storage levels, with UK reserves now below 5% of capacity and continental storage balances at historical lows. It is interesting to analyse how European storage has responded through the
- [Is the UK gas market facing a supply crisis?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/is-the-uk-gas-market-facing-a-supply-crisis/) - There has been a resurgence in UK gas market price volatility this month caused by unseasonably cold weather and a number of supply disruptions. Prompt NBP hub prices have moved sharply higher in response to delivery constraints into the UK gas market. But short term delivery constraints are not to be confused with long term
- [Headaches from FX and interest rate exposures](https://timera-energy.com/blog/headaches-from-fx-and-interest-rate-exposures/) - Since the heightened panic across the Eurozone last summer, central banks have flooded credit markets with cheap money. This has temporarily calmed credit market fears and FX volatility has fallen in sympathy. But in the absence of any real structural steps to address the problems of the Eurozone and its undercapitalised banking system, the crisis
- [Renewable growth and German power market dynamics](https://timera-energy.com/blog/renewable-growth-and-german-power-market-dynamics/) - Angela Merkel’s coalition government is under pressure from rising energy bills at the same time it is confronting a significant slowdown in the development of renewable capacity. Renewable energy policy is shaping up to be a key issue in the German election in September. Germany has delivered onshore wind and solar capacity at a remarkable
- [Gas indexation in Europe - a tipping point?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-indexation-in-europe-a-tipping-point/) - The increasing level of gas hub indexation in European supply contracts has been a key factor behind the evolution of the gas market over the last 5 years. The momentum behind hub indexation has grown as North West European hub prices have consistently traded below oil-index contract levels since the financial crisis. This has acted
- [Faith shaken in grandfather Groningen](https://timera-energy.com/blog/faith-shaken-in-grandfather-groningen/) - The vast Groningen gas field in the Netherlands plays an important role in the delivery of both supply and flexibility to the North West European gas market. Low level seismic activity has been directly associated with extraction of gas at Groningen for over 15 years. But a 3.4 magnitude quake in August 2012 has raised serious
- [Japanese nuclear restarts and the global gas market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/japanese-nuclear-restarts-and-the-global-gas-market/) - Japan is the elephant of LNG importing nations. Japanese demand accounts for about 35% of global LNG imports, dwarfing South Korea in second place (at around 15%). The post Fukushima closure of Japhttps://timera-energy.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=3360&action=editanese nuclear reactors and the resulting increase in gas-fired generation sent shockwaves through the global gas market in 2011. This step change in
- [Feeling the pain of European generators in 3 charts](https://timera-energy.com/blog/feeling-the-pain-of-european-generators-in-3-charts/) - Conventional generation portfolios in Europe have had a tough two years. The policy environment has been hostile and the slide in wholesale power prices unrelenting. As load factors on thermal plant have declined, utilities have scrambled to reduce their generation cost base and increase asset flexibility. But these actions have done little to stem earnings
- [A snapshot of incremental supply and demand in the LNG market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/a-snapshot-of-incremental-supply-and-demand-in-the-lng-market/) - There is set to be a shift in the tectonic plates of the global LNG market in the second half of this decade. Large uncontracted volumes of new supply in Australia, Canada and East Africa are competing with US export projects to serve what is anticipated to be strong growth in import demand, particularly from
- [Global gas price differentials](https://timera-energy.com/blog/global-gas-price-differentials/) - ‘Asian natural gas prices are four times prices in the US’. This is a striking statement that has got a lot of airplay over the last two years. Pronounced inter-regional gas price spreads sit in stark contrast with a relatively narrow global price range for the other global energy commodities, crude oil and coal. Global
- [Controlling an addiction to cheap money](https://timera-energy.com/blog/controlling-an-addiction-to-cheap-money/) - The importance of central bank monetary policy in driving commodity markets has been a key theme of this blog. Since the onset of the financial crisis, monetary stimulus has become increasingly dominant as the primary risk factor driving global financial markets. This influence has fed through into physical commodity markets including oil, coal and LNG.
- [Big trouble in little China?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/big-trouble-in-little-china/) - Chinese economic growth is the primary driver of the evolution of global commodity market demand, as we have highlighted previously. Energy markets are no exception. China consumes 47% of global coal production and Chinese gas imports are projected to account for around half of global LNG demand growth. A slowdown in Chinese growth has been
- [Security of supply concerns intensify in UK power market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/security-of-supply-concerns-intensify-in-uk-power-market/) - As of June 2013, the official view of security of supply risk in the UK power market has increased again. Ofgem’s recently released Capacity Assessment report sets out a further deterioration in the regulator’s projections of the UK capacity balance. The risk of customer disconnections, measured as high as a 1 in 4 chance in
- [Price divergence at PEG Sud](https://timera-energy.com/blog/price-divergence-at-peg-sud/) - The pace of price convergence across European gas hubs over the last 5 years has been one of the great success stories of an integrated European gas market. Price signals from the more liquid Northern European hubs (NBP, TTF and NCG) are increasingly penetrating into Southern Europe as transport capacity access improves. But the PEG
- [A break for summer](https://timera-energy.com/blog/a-break-for-summer/) - We are taking a short break with the blog over summer, but will be back on 26th August. Some of the articles lined up over the next few months include: European LNG cargo reload dynamics The rise of central planning in European power markets Rhetoric vs Reality on UK shale gas impact The looming downturn
- [Will European LNG reloads continue?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/will-european-lng-reloads-continue/) - The practice of reloading an already discharged LNG cargo back onto a vessel for export appears to defy logic. But reloading of LNG has become an increasingly important factor driving European LNG flows over the last two years. Reloading activity is focused on specific locations where LNG supply is bound by contractual constraints. Despite the apparent inefficiency,
- [Rhetoric vs. reality on UK shale gas impact](https://timera-energy.com/blog/rhetoric-vs-reality-on-uk-shale-gas-impact/) - Shale gas has been a pet interest of the UK Prime Minister David Cameron and his Chancellor George Osborne. The top two Tories have been painting a picture of a potential UK shale gas revolution, with investment in unconventional gas production dramatically reducing Britain’s energy costs. In the words of the Prime Minister in July
- [A mini-meltdown in the uranium market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/a-mini-meltdown-in-the-uranium-market/) - The uranium market is a quieter cousin to the larger global markets for gas and coal. But despite the post Fukushima shift in public opinion away from nuclear generation, there are still 152 operational nuclear power plants in Europe (ex Russia) totalling 138 GW of capacity. So uranium is a key source of fuel for
- [Getting to grips with LNG shipping costs](https://timera-energy.com/blog/getting-to-grips-with-lng-shipping-costs/) - The LNG shipping market is characterised by unusual terms such as ‘demurrage’, ‘ballast’ and ‘bunkering’. It features interesting conventions such as ‘canal transit costs’ and is impacted by the very real threat of modern day piracy. While all of this is interesting trivia, these factors all play a role in determining the cost of moving
- [What drives contract counterparties back to the negotiating table?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/what-drives-contract-counterparties-back-to-the-negotiating-table/) - This is the first in a series of articles on commercial considerations in the negotiation of long term energy contracts, written by Nick Perry. The European energy industry is navigating a period of intense re-negotiation of long term contracts. Rapidly changing market price dynamics have resulted in large swings in contract value and exposed unintended
- [Getting creative with long term contract renegotiation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/getting-creative-with-long-term-contract-renegotiation/) - This is the second in a series of articles on commercial negotiation of long term energy contracts, written by Nick Perry. European gas contract re-opener negotiations are re-shaping the pricing and flexibility of gas flows into Europe. Re-opener discounted tranches of Russian gas are having a growing influence in setting marginal hub prices. Greater portfolio
- [Getting comfortable with CCGT extrinsic value](https://timera-energy.com/blog/getting-comfortable-with-ccgt-extrinsic-value/) - CCGT power plant valuation has traditionally focused on intrinsic value, the value of dispatching the plant against prices observed in the forward market. Any mention of the extrinsic (or flexibility) value of CCGT assets, resulted in nervous glances around the table. Extrinsic value was considered to be icing on the cake. Nice if you could
- [US exports are a big deal for global gas pricing](https://timera-energy.com/blog/us-exports-are-a-big-deal-for-global-gas-pricing/) - US LNG exports are firmly on the gas industry radar. But the primary focus to date has been on whether US LNG is cheap vs alternative sources of supply such as Australia and East Africa. While this focus is understandable from a competitive perspective, US exports are more than just another source of global supply.
- [Gas plant & renewable penetration: a UK case study](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-plant-renewable-penetration-a-uk-case-study/) - The increase in renewable capacity is eroding gas plant generation margins across Europe. At the same time there is an increasing system requirement for gas plant flexibility to support renewable intermittency. This paradox is challenging the orderly operation of wholesale power markets in Europe. But it remains unclear how intermittent renewable and gas-fired plant will
- [Strategic negotiation with portfolio assets in play](https://timera-energy.com/blog/strategic-negotiation-with-portfolio-assets-in-play/) - This is the third and final in a series of articles on commercial negotiation of long term energy contracts, written by Nick Perry. In the first two parts of this series we looked at how out-of-the-money long term energy contracts (LTCs) give rise to commercial tensions. We considered how these can either degenerate into wasteful
- [A framework for understanding European gas hub pricing](https://timera-energy.com/blog/a-framework-for-understanding-european-gas-hub-pricing/) - What drives the pricing of gas at European hubs? Oil indexation, long term contracts, LNG flows, Russian supply, interconnection, swing, storage... or all of the above and more. This is a problem that asset owners, investors, traders and risk managers grapple with on a daily basis given its importance as a driver of asset and
- [Carbon price floor impact on the UK power market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/carbon-price-floor-impact-on-the-uk-power-market/) - The UK carbon price floor is driving a wedge between the UK and European cost of carbon. This will have an important impact on the competitiveness of gas vs coal generation in the UK. Indicative forward market pricing suggests that gas plant may start to displace coal plant by the summer of 2016. This has
- [Price spikes and the value of gas flexibility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/price-spikes-and-the-value-of-gas-flexibility/) - European gas hub price volatility has been in steady decline over the last 3 years. We explored the factors behind subdued volatility in an article last year on the death of gas volatility in Europe. But despite this trend, there have been several periods of aggressive price spikes. As winter matures and gas storage levels
- [Steam coming out of the LNG shipping market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/steam-coming-out-of-the-lng-shipping-market/) - With rapid growth in the trading of spot and short term LNG cargoes, fluctuations in spot shipping charter rates are having an increasingly important impact on the pricing and flow of LNG. The LNG shipping market has evolved rapidly over the last decade, driven by growth in global liquefaction capacity. But the order and delivery
- [Conventional power plant value analysis has evolved](https://timera-energy.com/blog/conventional-power-plant-value-analysis-has-evolved/) - The value of European gas and coal fired power plants is a very different proposition to what it was 5 years ago. Growth in renewable output has eroded plant load factors and increased margin variability. Correspondingly, there has been a significant increase in the proportion of value driven by plant flexibility to respond to changes
- [GasTerra storage auctions & flexibility value implications](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gasterra-storage-auctions-flexibility-value-implications/) - Twice a year GasTerra auctions Dutch storage capacity. The price the market is willing to pay for this capacity provides a useful insight into the value of flexibility in the NW European gas market. And the evolution of capacity value since the first auction in 2011 tells an important story of the shift in the
- [Transition from JCC Pricing in Asian LNG Markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/transition-from-jcc-pricing-in-asian-lng-markets/) - This week’s article is written by Howard Rogers, a Senior Advisor with Timera Energy and Director of Natural Gas Research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. The European transition to hub-based pricing is now well underway. This raises the question as to whether Asian LNG markets will inevitably evolve away from their historic linkage
- [LNG induced gas price squeeze in South West Europe](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-induced-gas-price-squeeze-in-south-west-europe/) - It has again been a lively winter in the global LNG spot market. Spot prices are following a pronounced seasonal shape as winter buying has driven Asian prices above the 20 $/mmbtu level. What has been interesting this year is the level of competition from European buyers, particularly from Spain and Turkey, to secure flexible
- [There is more to energy risk management than option theory](https://timera-energy.com/blog/there-is-more-to-energy-risk-management-than-option-theory/) - This is the first in a series of articles on the principles of energy risk management, written by Nick Perry. The business of energy companies increasingly revolves around the management of portfolio risk. Risk associated with customer contracts, supply agreements, upstream assets and hedge books. But the term ‘risk management’ is often narrowly applied to
- [US wild winter volatility a reminder for Europe](https://timera-energy.com/blog/us-wild-winter-volatility-a-reminder-for-europe/) - It has been a very mild winter in Europe and gas demand has been soft. As a result weakness in winter/summer hub price spreads has continued and price volatility remains in the doldrums. Even the threat of Russia flexing its muscles and restricting supply via Ukraine has so far had a limited impact on hub
- [Germany vs UK generation margin comparison](https://timera-energy.com/blog/germany-vs-uk-generation-margin-comparison/) - Comparisons between Germany and the UK are always an interesting exercise. Germany is impressive in its efficiency, structured approach and longer term thinking. The UK prides itself on flexibility, independence and innovation. Interesting contrasts between Germany and the UK can be extended across business, culture and food. For example, a shared passion for beer and
- [Unique energy risk management characteristics](https://timera-energy.com/blog/unique-energy-risk-management-characteristics/) - This is the second in a series of articles on the principles of energy risk management, written by Nick Perry. In the previous article we considered a range of common misconceptions about risk management in energy companies, not least of which is the notion that hedging is trivial for portfolios not containing options, i.e. for
- [UK shale and security of supply](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-shale-and-security-of-supply/) - Vladimir Putin’s political brinkmanship has brought security of gas supply firmly back into focus across Europe. The importance of gas sales to the Russian economy means that disruptions to gas supply are likely to be temporary rather than structural. But Russia’s use of energy supply as a means of political leverage presents an uncomfortable situation
- [Considering an alternative view on global LNG pricing](https://timera-energy.com/blog/considering-an-alternative-view-on-global-lng-pricing/) - A market consensus view has developed that the global LNG market will remain tight for the rest of this decade. The thesis runs that LNG buyers are nervous about being caught short supply as gas import demand from developing economies surges. The post-Fukushima squeeze is fresh in mind. Producers are also projecting a tight market
- [A spring slump in spot gas prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/a-spring-slump-in-spot-gas-prices/) - It is ironic that the growing threat of Russian supply cuts has conincided with a sharp decline in European gas hub prices. Prompt UK NBP prices have fallen more than 20 p/th since the start of the year. TTF & NCG prices by more than 8 €/MWh. This price slump is more than a seasonal
- [Centrica asset sales & the current market environment](https://timera-energy.com/blog/centrica-asset-sales-the-current-market-environment/) - Earlier this month Centrica announced a major shift in its generation portfolio strategy. Centrica intends to sell all of its larger CCGT assets and re-focus on smaller peaking plant. A strategic shift of this scale from a well respected management team will no doubt fuel boardroom discussions across other European utilities. Weak CCGT returns are
- [Russia - China deal to shake up global gas market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/russia-china-deal-to-shake-up-global-gas-market/) - The Chinese have driven a hard bargain in closing a 38 bcma supply deal that is priced on a similar basis to Russia’s existing European supply contracts. But in return, Russia has secured a central role in supplying the Asian gas market over the next decade. Russia has also thrown down the gauntlet to LNG
- [Interconnectors - a competitive source of new capacity for the UK power market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/interconnectors-a-competitive-source-of-new-capacity-for-the-uk-power-market/) - The UK Capacity Market is currently being implemented to ensure new flexible capacity is built as older plants retire. While generation investors are focused on trying to assess the relative benefits of CCGT vs OCGT capacity, new interconnector capacity is quietly looming as an increasingly competitive alternative. Interconnectors have been excluded by the UK government
- [Europe’s dependence on Russian gas](https://timera-energy.com/blog/europes-dependence-on-russian-gas/) - The protracted standoff between Russia and Ukraine came to a head last week as Russia implemented supply cuts. But European gas hub prices hardly blinked. In the short term, the European gas market is well equipped to deal with targeted Russian supply cuts. Storage levels across Europe are high and a steady flow of LNG
- [A practical view of the flexibility value of gas and power assets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/a-practical-view-of-the-flexibility-value-of-gas-and-power-assets/) - Flexibility value has become a popular concept in energy markets. At a qualitative level the benefits of flexibility are reasonably well understood. Increasing intermittency in power markets requires flexible backup. This has a knock-on impact with gas markets where supply flexibility is evolving in response hub price signals. What is less well understood is how
- [Investment in UK peaking assets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/investment-in-uk-peaking-assets/) - The new Capacity Market may be set to turn UK generation investment on its head. Power plant development in the UK has historically been focused on combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants rather than peaking assets. CCGT have a clear efficiency advantage over peaking plants and with 30GW of existing CCGT capacity, UK merit order
- [Gas hub pricing in a state of flux](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-hub-pricing-in-a-state-of-flux/) - As the summer heats up spot gas prices have continued to slump. Asian LNG cargoes are changing hands at under 11 $/MMBtu, price levels not seen since Fukushima. The reaction of European hub prices illustrates the global gas price linkage that has evolved with the LNG market. UK NBP spot gas prices are now around
- [European hub price volatility on the rise](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-hub-price-volatility-on-the-rise/) - It is a common characteristic of energy markets that prices and volatility tend to be positively correlated. This reflects the fact that price distributions tend to be skewed to the upside. Energy prices rarely go negative, but market shocks can cause explosive price spikes. However, European hub price volatility is on the rise in 2014, and
- [This is no ordinary fall in global gas prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/this-is-no-ordinary-fall-in-global-gas-prices/) - The Fukushima disaster in March 2011 precipitated a shift in global gas market balance. A period of market tightness followed, driven by robust Asian demand and constrained supply growth. This post-Fukushima period has been characterised by global gas price divergence as Asian and South American buyers have had to pay a premium to attract LNG
- [Why the UK will need fast cycle storage](https://timera-energy.com/blog/why-the-uk-will-need-fast-cycle-storage/) - The UK gas market is undergoing two major long term structural shifts. UK import dependency is increasing as domestic gas production declines. At the same time, short term fluctuations in UK power sector gas demand are increasing as intermittent renewable generation capacity rises. Both of these factors are driving an increasing requirement for system flexibility.
- [UK power crunch risk remains](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-power-crunch-risk-remains/) - The threat of a mid-decade capacity crunch in the UK power market made national headlines in 2013. Concern around this threat has diminished noticeably over the last 12 months. This change in mood is down to several factors. Conditions last winter were benign, a new Capacity Market is on the way, and the system operator
- [The next phase of global gas pricing](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-next-phase-of-global-gas-pricing/) - Commodity markets are known for their rapid shifts in supply/demand balance and pricing dynamics. The global gas market is a great case study. In the space of a decade we have seen a commodity ‘supercycle’ boom, a global gas glut and a post-Fukushima squeeze. And now price evolution in 2014 points to the start of
- [Tighter UK market, higher gas plant margins?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/tighter-uk-market-higher-gas-plant-margins/) - The last 3 years have been tough for UK gas-fired plant owners. A slump in coal prices has given coal plant a clear competitive advantage over gas plant in the merit order. On top of this a steady increase in renewable output is eroding CCGT generation margins and load factors. Yet looking forward over the
- [LNG vessel charter rates heading south](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-vessel-charter-rates-heading-south/) - The upheaval in the global gas market this year is also being felt in the LNG shipping market. LNG charter rates have sunk in 2014 alongside gas prices. Healthy LNG vessel order books in anticipation of new liquefaction capacity are resulting in a wave of new deliveries from shipyards. At the same time the fall
- [Oil and coal pricing back in focus](https://timera-energy.com/blog/oil-and-coal-pricing-back-in-focus/) - This blog is focused on gas and power markets. But every few months we take a step back and look at the impact of the broader commodity market environment. With front month Brent crude oil plunging more than 20% over the last few weeks and a broader sell off across commodity markets, it seems like
- [German recession, power prices & generation margins](https://timera-energy.com/blog/german-recession-power-prices-generation-margins/) - After being the poster child of post crisis European recovery, Germany is suddenly facing the combined threat of deflation and recession. German GDP contracted in Q2 and industrial production has slumped across the summer. German exports have also sharply declined in August despite a weakening Euro. This is not a positive backdrop for German power
- [First UK capacity auction in focus](https://timera-energy.com/blog/first-uk-capacity-auction-in-focus/) - Note: Several hours after this article was published DECC announced that they had revised the 1st auction capacity target down. The article has now been updated to reflect this new information. It is now 7 weeks and counting until the first UK Capacity Market auction. The introduction of a Capacity Market represents the largest structural
- [A quick check on gas hub liquidity](https://timera-energy.com/blog/a-quick-check-on-gas-hub-liquidity/) - Trading liquidity is the oxygen that is supporting the evolution of Europe’s gas hubs. Liquidity growth has been self reinforcing. With higher transaction volumes, price transparency increases and transaction costs decrease. This increases the attractiveness and reliability of hubs as a means to manage gas portfolio hedging and optimisation. Some strong trends have emerged as
- [Spot vs forward price dynamics: UK gas case study](https://timera-energy.com/blog/spot-vs-forward-price-dynamics-uk-gas-case-study/) - Commodity markets are plagued by confusion as to the relationship between spot and forward prices. There are good reasons. The relationship is not determined by a clean mathematical formula, as it is for example in interest rate markets. In fact it is hard to cleanly define a theoretical relationship between the physical delivery of a
- [A shift in LNG market balance](https://timera-energy.com/blog/a-shift-in-lng-market-balance/) - Since the Fukushima disaster, LNG has been a seller’s market. But the LNG market balance has undergone a sharp transformation in 2014. The summer slump in LNG spot prices sent shock waves through the global gas market. All eyes have been on the approaching winter as a barometer of the LNG supply/demand balance. But after
- [Market interconnectivity and the next 6 months](https://timera-energy.com/blog/market-interconnectivity-and-the-next-6-months/) - The term 'big price move' is used too liberally in relation to energy markets which have a relatively high level of ambient volatility. But last week's decline in the Brent crude curve was a big move by any standards. This decline in Brent will have profound repercussions for an already weakening LNG market. And these
- [2014 themes and the way forward into 2015](https://timera-energy.com/blog/2014-themes-and-the-way-forward-into-2015/) - With Christmas approaching this is our last article of 2014. We will be back with more in early January. To finish the year, it has become a bit of a tradition for us to look back at the key market and commercial themes of the past year. Then to draw on these themes to look forward
- [Welcome back](https://timera-energy.com/blog/welcome-back/) - Happy New Year and welcome back. The festive season is often a quieter time for energy markets. This has certainly not been the case over the last month. Brent crude oil has continued its precipitous decline, falling another 15 $/bbl since early December to under 53 $/bbl, almost halving in value over the last three
- [Timera take on the 1st UK capacity auction](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-take-on-the-1st-uk-capacity-auction/) - The first UK capacity auction was concluded just in time for Christmas, with 49.3 GW of capacity procured at a clearing price of 19.40 £/kW. The auction results gave little in the way of Christmas cheer for most UK generators, with the clearing price close to half that of market consensus expectations. However the first
- [Crude is not alone as it plunges into 2015](https://timera-energy.com/blog/crude-is-not-alone-as-it-plunges-into-2015/) - The plunging price of crude oil is the big story of the energy industry in 2015 so far. The impact of this seismic shift in the pricing of hydrocarbons reaches well beyond the oil market. The fall in crude is in turn acting to drag down global gas prices, changing LNG flows and threatening the
- [Supply side response to lower crude](https://timera-energy.com/blog/supply-side-response-to-lower-crude/) - This is the second article in a three part series on falling crude prices. In the first two of these articles we look at the two key factors behind the current price decline: A weakening global demand outlook, with global economic growth expectations weakening. Specifically in some of the larger oil importing countries (e.g. Japan, China and India)
- [Market benchmark for gas flexibility value](https://timera-energy.com/blog/market-benchmark-for-gas-flexibility-value/) - After a recovery in the first half of 2014, seasonal price spreads at European hubs have again fallen back towards historically low levels (currently around 1.70 €/MWh). Given summer/winter spreads are the key market price signal for seasonal flexibility, there has been an associated decline in the market value for storage capacity. GasTerra has been
- [Brent curve collapse in animation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/brent-curve-collapse-in-animation/) - The Brent crude forward curve had a wild ride across 2008 and 2009. The commodity supercycle peak dragged spot crude towards 150 $/bbl, with forward prices following almost in parallel. Then the financial crisis saw spot prices crash and a deep contango open up along the curve. But since 2010, crude prices have moved in
- [Europe is now the hub of the global gas market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/europe-is-now-the-hub-of-the-global-gas-market/) - In the three years following the Fukushima crisis, LNG supply played a relatively limited role in influencing European hub prices. Flexible LNG supply volumes flowed away from Europe to Asia, with Asian LNG spot prices providing the key global spot price signal. These dynamics have changed in quite dramatic fashion since the summer of 2014.
- [European hub prices under pressure in 2015](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-hub-prices-under-pressure-in-2015/) - After several years of relative stability, the European gas market has entered a more dynamic transition phase. Spot prices at European hubs have faced strong downward pressure since summer last year. The threat of Russian supply disruptions provided some temporary support for forward prices in advance of the current winter. But hub price declines have
- [Power capacity payments are coming across Europe](https://timera-energy.com/blog/power-capacity-payments-are-coming-across-europe/) - European power markets are slowly but steadily moving towards implementing capacity remuneration mechanisms for flexible generation. A consistent pan-European solution for capacity remuneration looks unlikely. Instead the approach and pace of implementation is being driven by security of supply concerns in individual countries. However a regulatory consensus is emerging as to the need for some
- [The mountain of new LNG supply](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-mountain-of-new-lng-supply/) - Despite current conditions of oversupply, the LNG market is set to embark on a growth spurt over the next five years. The relatively long lead times for liquefaction terminal construction provide good visibility of supply volume growth towards 2020. And volume growth will be substantial even if it is only limited to projects already under
- [Falling fuel prices and thermal plant margins](https://timera-energy.com/blog/falling-fuel-prices-and-thermal-plant-margins/) - There have been some big moves in commodity prices and currencies so far in 2015. Sharp declines in oil, gas and coal prices have reduced the fuel costs of European thermal generators. But have these fed through into improved margins for gas and coal plant owners? The answer to this question is somewhat market and asset
- [The dangers of mixing forecasts and forward curves](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-dangers-of-mixing-forecasts-and-forward-curves/) - Forward market liquidity has steadily developed with the evolution of traded gas and power markets in Europe. This has supported traders and asset managers to hedge forward asset exposures, reducing portfolio earnings volatility. Energy price forecasting on the other hand has not undergone the same evolution. The track record of industry price forecasters today is
- [UK gas storage capacity restrictions](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-gas-storage-capacity-restrictions/) - It is almost a decade since a fire at Centrica’s Rough storage site sent shock waves through the UK gas market. Market infrastructure has evolved since the fire, with significant increases in gas import capacity reducing the UK’s dependence on Rough flexibility. But Centrica’s recent announcement of the temporary withdrawal of more than 25% of
- [Evolving roles and risks in the European gas market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/evolving-roles-and-risks-in-the-european-gas-market/) - Much industry analysis and discussion has been directed at European gas price formation, specifically the transition from oil indexation to hub pricing. But there has been less focus on the changing roles and risks of the key players. In this article we examine the drivers of European hub prices and attendant uncertainties and also the
- [Watch out for Chinese & European gas demand](https://timera-energy.com/blog/watch-out-for-chinese-european-gas-demand/) - The European gas market’s ability to absorb surplus global LNG flows may be tested over the next five years. More than 150 bcma of new LNG supply is under construction for completion by the end of this decade. Surplus LNG supply above Asian and emerging market requirements will primarily flow to Europe. European hubs should
- [Acquisitions and monetising asset value](https://timera-energy.com/blog/acquisitions-and-monetising-asset-value/) - European energy asset transaction activity is on the rise. After ambitious but largely unsuccessful growth and acquisition sprees last decade, utilities are selling off flexible assets & downsizing trading functions. In a world of unpredictable asset margins and lower price volatility, utilities are reverting to the perceived safety of core business and subsidised renewable asset
- [Gas plant competiveness is increasing](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-plant-competiveness-is-increasing/) - Over the last five years, European coal plants have developed a substantial variable cost advantage over gas plants. This has been driven by relative weakness in coal and carbon prices over a period where gas hub prices have been supported by oil-linkage. But coal’s competitive advantage has suffered a pronounced decline since summer 2014. A
- [Gas vs coal switching in Continental power markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-vs-coal-switching-in-continental-power-markets/) - Five years of coal price weakness has decimated the value of European gas-fired power plants. Spark spreads in Continental power markets have fallen into deeply negative territory as coal plants have dominated the setting of marginal power prices. Gas plant load factors and margins have plummeted as CCGTs have been relegated to a peaking role.
- [Look to the USD for oil price direction](https://timera-energy.com/blog/look-to-the-usd-for-oil-price-direction/) - The decline in crude prices that started last summer has been one of the sharpest selloffs in the history of the oil market. After stabilising towards the end of Q1 2015, crude prices have recovered in Q2. There are two schools of thought as to the meaning of this price rally: Correction: After a sharp move
- [Capacity fallout in the UK power market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/capacity-fallout-in-the-uk-power-market/) - The system capacity margin for the UK power market fell to 4% heading into last winter. Across the winter generation margins have remained weak and the inaugural UK capacity auction cleared at a price level under 20 £/kW. This has left owners of less efficient coal and CCGT plants in a difficult position. So far
- [Collapse in LNG charter rates continues](https://timera-energy.com/blog/collapse-in-lng-charter-rates-continues/) - Oversupply in the LNG market is having a knock on impact on the LNG carrier market. LNG vessel charter rates have suffered another down leg in 2015, with spot charter rates falling to USD 25,000 per day. Rates have halved in the last six months, falling back to levels seen in the depths of the
- [Electricity storage investment: path to commercialisation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/electricity-storage-investment-path-to-commercialisation/) - Battery storage technology costs have been declining at an impressive rate over the last 2 to 3 years. Interest in the investment growth potential for electricity storage has increased sharply as a result. Much of this is being driven by enthusiastic projections for the mass market role out of batteries. There has been a particular
- [Oil market illustrates risks of relying on price forecasts](https://timera-energy.com/blog/oil-market-illustrates-risks-of-relying-on-price-forecasts/) - Commodity price forecasts are widely used across energy markets. Forecasts are used as an input for a range of commercial activities including business plans, budgets and investment cases. In fact some view of the future evolution of commodity prices is a pre-requisite for many of these activities. But the principle danger associated with price forecasts
- [Shipping cost impact on LNG price spreads](https://timera-energy.com/blog/shipping-cost-impact-on-lng-price-spreads/) - The LNG market is adjusting to the new reality of regional price convergence. Soft Asian demand, new liquefaction capacity and lower oil-indexed contract prices are all contributing to compress regional price differentials. Under these conditions, LNG shipping costs are playing an increasingly important role in determining LNG flows and spot pricing dynamics. Quantifying the
- [European hub prices and Chinese gas demand](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-hub-prices-and-chinese-gas-demand/) - One of our themes in 2015 has been the increasing importance of the LNG market as a driver of European hub prices. To date we have focused more on the evolution of gas supply. But we turn now to focus on the other side of the equation: gas demand growth. The global gas price convergence
- [European gas demand, LNG flow & hub prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-demand-lng-flow-hub-prices/) - Last week we explored the impact of weaker Chinese LNG demand on European hub prices. We set out a scenario that illustrated the impact of European hubs having to absorb higher volumes of flexible LNG as the global balancing market. This week we shift our focus to European gas demand. We aim to set out
- [Gas volatility & investment in deliverability](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-volatility-investment-in-deliverability/) - The article below is our last before the summer break. We will be back with more in late August. There are two key structural trends in play that will place increasing demands on the flexibility of European gas supply infrastructure over the next decade: European import dependency will increase substantially as domestic production declines, increasing
- [The next leg down in commodity prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-next-leg-down-in-commodity-prices/) - It has not been a peaceful summer in global commodity markets. After a six month period of consolidation, July saw a renewed broad based decline in commodity prices. This has continued through August as concerns over China’s growth prospects have intensified. Crude oil prices have plunged back through January levels and look set to test
- [UK spark and dark spreads in animation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-spark-and-dark-spreads-in-animation/) - The evolution of generation margins for gas and coal fired power plants are having wide reaching implications across European gas and power markets this decade. A collapse in spark spreads (gas plant margins) over the last five years has seen CCGT load factors crushed and units closed or mothballed. This has in turn driven a
- [Structural transition in gas prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/structural-transition-in-gas-prices/) - A sharp slump in spot gas prices last summer marked the start of a new phase of global gas pricing. This summer the gas market has been relatively quiet. Instead price action has been focused on the oil market. After recovering back towards 70 $/bbl in Q2, Brent plunged back under 50 $/bbl in August,
- [Vattenfall’s German sale: mixing lignite & water](https://timera-energy.com/blog/vattenfalls-german-sale-mixing-lignite-water/) - Vattenfall is kicking-off a formal sales process to dispose of its lignite and pump storage hydro assets in Germany. The sale will result in a significant change in asset ownership in Europe’s largest power market. The larger Czech and Polish coal generators (e.g. CEZ, EPH and PGE) have the most obvious interest. But there should
- [Gas flex case study: the impact of losing Rough storage](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-flex-case-study-the-impact-of-losing-rough-storage/) - Investment in gas supply flexibility is supported by two key market price signals. Summer/winter price spreads drive investment in seasonal flexibility and short term (or prompt) price volatility drives investment in deliverability. Both price signals have declined significantly this decade choking off investment in new supply flexibility. As well as a dearth of new asset
- [Watch out for a major credit event](https://timera-energy.com/blog/watch-out-for-a-major-credit-event/) - It is often said that when the tide goes out on commodity prices we find out who’s been swimming without shorts on. The market smells trouble brewing amongst some large commodity trading companies. The most prominent of these, Glencore, has attracted plenty of attention over the last week. Since the latest commodity rout began in
- [Defending energy portfolios against a credit event](https://timera-energy.com/blog/defending-energy-portfolios-against-a-credit-event/) - Last week we looked at the threat of a systemic credit event in energy markets. Market prices are flashing a warning signal about the capitalisation and interrelated exposures of a number of large commodity trading firms. However you assess the imminence and magnitude of the current threat, historical evidence shows a clear track record of
- [The UK CCGT new build challenge](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-uk-ccgt-new-build-challenge/) - Carlton Power was the only bidder in the UK's first power market capacity auction that secured a capacity agreement to build a new CCGT (in Dec 2014). Carlton Power’s Trafford CCGT, a 1520 MW project in Manchester, received a 15 year agreement at the clearing price of 19.40 £/kW. But the Trafford plant was bid
- [UK capacity price may clear in single digits](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-capacity-price-may-clear-in-single-digits/) - The system reserve margin in the UK power market is at an unprecedented level of tightness coming into the second capacity market auction in December. Last year’s inaugural capacity auction delivered little in the way of new capacity. In fact the low auction clearing price (19.40 £/kW) crystallised the economics of a number of older
- [Global gas price evolution: 5 key drivers](https://timera-energy.com/blog/global-gas-price-evolution-5-key-drivers/) - The global gas market has been turned on its head over the last 18 months. In Q1 last year, Asian spot LNG prices were breaking records with the Platts JKM marker above 20 $/mmbtu. Behind this was a structural divergence across regional gas prices in Asia, Europe and the US, with flexible LNG supply diverted
- [Last week’s UK power price spike](https://timera-energy.com/blog/last-weeks-uk-power-price-spike/) - The tightening UK system capacity margin has been a theme of this blog over the last 4 years. This manifested itself last Wednesday in a period of magnified system stress and spiking power prices. The system operator, National Grid, took a number of defensive actions, paying up to 2500 £/MWh in the balancing mechanism to
- [Implied vs historical gas price volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/implied-vs-historical-gas-price-volatility/) - European gas hub markets are maturing. This can be seen via the increase in range and liquidity of traded products. Growth in trading activity is focused on the UK NBP and Dutch TTF hubs, with TTF challenging the traditional dominance of NBP. Consistent with maturing hub markets is a growing liquidity in traded gas options.
- [Commodity price perspective: a 3 chart view](https://timera-energy.com/blog/commodity-price-perspective-a-3-chart-view/) - A seismic shift in commodity markets began in Q4 2014. From an energy market perspective this was focused on crude oil breaking out of its trading range above 100 $/bbl and plunging to under 50 $/bbl. But this was not an isolated oil market event. Global commodity markets have weakened in a highly correlated fashion
- [Russia’s strategic response to an oversupplied gas market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/russias-strategic-response-to-an-oversupplied-gas-market/) - The oil market is currently focused on the Saudi dominated OPEC’s strategic reaction to lower prices. There is no ‘gas OPEC’ per se; but there are important strategic questions around how Russia responds to lower gas prices. The importance of Russia is not just the scale of its production and reserves, but that it is
- [The UK’s dual capacity markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-uks-dual-capacity-markets/) - There is an acute and increasing capacity shortage in the UK power market caused by the retirement of older gas and coal plants. This is being driven by ongoing weakness in thermal generation margins, due in part to increasing volumes of renewable output. In response to security of supply concerns, the UK government introduced a
- [Hub pricing in a converging global gas market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/hub-pricing-in-a-converging-global-gas-market/) - There has been a pronounced downward revision of future price expectations across the global gas market as 2015 has evolved. This has been reinforced by falling oil price expectations. There is now growing acceptance that the current oversupply of gas is more than just a temporary phenomenon. Demand growth projections are weakening at the same
- [US exports are now a reality](https://timera-energy.com/blog/us-exports-are-now-a-reality/) - By all reports commissioning of Cheniere’s Sabine Pass terminal has been progressing smoothly and will export its first cargo in the next few weeks. This marks the start of the ‘1st wave’ of North American export capacity that will reconnect the US gas market with the global LNG market. More than 80 bcma of US
- [Risk management done the right way](https://timera-energy.com/blog/risk-management-done-the-right-way/) - A risk manager’s life is not an easy one. Their role by definition is one of vigilance and challenge. Yet a good risk manager can be a facilitator within the bounds of their control mandate, rather than a blocker. Risk management in gas and power markets poses a particular set of challenges given the unique
- [An analysis of European hub price correlation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/an-analysis-of-european-hub-price-correlation/) - Trading in the European gas market has developed around a two tier structure of trading hubs. Forward liquidity is focused at the UK NBP and Dutch TTF virtual trading points. Prompt liquidity has emerged at a number of other locations (e.g. Zeebrugge, NCG, Gaspool, PEGs, CEGH, Baumgarten and PSV). Participants manage their forward exposures at the liquid hubs
- [Five market surprises for 2016](https://timera-energy.com/blog/five-market-surprises-for-2016/) - If January is any indication, 2016 is not going to be a boring year for energy markets. Other businesses may boom this year like Water, Food and Other businesses offering good services like catering or massages at TranquilMe. So far this year European spot gas prices have slumped towards 4 $/mmbtu, a 30% decline from
- [Dark spreads spell the death of UK coal plants](https://timera-energy.com/blog/dark-spreads-spell-the-death-of-uk-coal-plants/) - Falling gas prices over the last year have decimated UK coal plant generation margins. In the UK, coal plants are hostage to CCGTs when it comes to setting wholesale power prices. CCGTs dominate the supply stack which means that falling gas prices flow through into falling wholesale power prices. This has acted to erode generation
- [European gas hub dynamics in 2016](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-hub-dynamics-in-2016/) - The global gas market fell into a supply glut in 2009-10. The financial crisis, new LNG projects and an explosion of US shale gas production conspired to knock the market out of balance. But this supply glut was relatively short lived. Strong demand growth in Asia, particularly after the Fukushima accident in 2011, saw a
- [Underestimating small scale peakers](https://timera-energy.com/blog/underestimating-small-scale-peakers/) - The UK government has issued fresh denials of an imminent capacity crunch this month. This has been prompted by closure announcements for another 2.5 GW of coal plant capacity (Fiddler’s Ferry & Rugeley). But behind the podium in the Whitehall corridors concerns continue to mount. The closure of large volumes of coal and CCGT capacity
- [Brent crash in animation (Part II)](https://timera-energy.com/blog/brent-crash-in-animation-part-ii/) - The wild ride continues in the crude market. Brent plunged below 30 $/bbl earlier this month as resilient production and inventory build spooked the market. This was followed by a sharp 20% rally triggered by the optimistic concept of coordinated OPEC/Russian production cuts. Any hope of cooperation between Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq fell apart
- [Rising CCGT load factors and gas volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/rising-ccgt-load-factors-and-gas-volatility/) - The sharp decline in gas hub prices in 2016 is starting to reshape the landscape for flexible supply infrastructure in European gas and power markets. CCGT load factors are on the rise as coal plants are being displaced from the merit order. Spot gas price volatility is also showing early signs of recovery despite an
- [A revival in contracting of flexible assets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/a-revival-in-contracting-of-flexible-assets/) - Long term contracts are a cornerstone of the energy industry. They play a key role in underpinning the capital expenditure required to develop assets. They also play an important role in ensuring security of supply. There is a long history of contracting gas and power assets in Europe. The role of long term contracts has
- [Fixing the UK’s broken capacity market?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/fixing-the-uks-broken-capacity-market/) - What do you do if you design a capacity market that doesn’t work? Try, try again. The imminent threat of large volumes of coal plant closures has sent DECC rushing back to the drawing board. This month a raft of proposed revisions to the UK capacity market have been announced for consultation. It is DECCs
- [Summer gas price pressure & the storage overhang](https://timera-energy.com/blog/summer-gas-price-pressure-the-storage-overhang/) - Gas storage facilities have traditionally been the seasonal balancing force in the European gas market. Across the EU-28 countries there is around 90 bcm of gas storage capacity, supporting an inventory of approximately 20% of total gas demand. The first week of April marks the start of the storage year. This is typically the point
- [Long term contract pricing: counterparty motivations](https://timera-energy.com/blog/long-term-contract-pricing-counterparty-motivations/) - The pricing terms of long term contracts on flexible gas & power assets are typically the subject of lengthy negotiations. They also often remain a closely guarded commercial secret. This is reflective of the bespoke nature of these contracts and the large sums of money involved. Long term contracts are used to underwrite investment in
- [European gas market: current supply & demand balance](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-market-current-supply-demand-balance/) - The next two years are set to be an important period of transition for the European gas market. LNG imports are increasing as Europe adapts to its role as the global gas sink. In addition, oversupply at European hubs is eroding the traditional price setting role of oil-indexed Russian gas contracts. But as 2016 progresses and
- [European LNG imports on the rise](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-lng-imports-on-the-rise/) - The post-Fukushima Asian LNG price premium saw European LNG imports fall by more than 50% across the 2011 to 14 period. In 2011, the year of the Fukushima disaster, Europe imported 91 bcm of LNG. By 2014 European LNG imports had fallen to 42 bcm, representing a 49 bcm reduction from three years earlier. Over
- [Anatomy of a spring short squeeze](https://timera-energy.com/blog/anatomy-of-a-spring-short-squeeze/) - Last week saw some extreme swings in European gas hub prices. The combination of an early spring cold snap and North Sea supply outages caused the NBP forward curve to explode 20% higher than levels seen the previous week. This move was mirrored across Continental hubs led by the Dutch TTF. But the action was
- [What does Henry Hub convergence mean?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/what-does-henry-hub-convergence-mean/) - Prices at the UK NBP and US Henry Hub converged completely during the last global supply glut in 2009-10. This was a simple consequence of global oversupply. The sale of surplus LNG into the European gas market drove down hub prices to the point that it was more profitable to divert LNG to the US.
- [Gas vs coal switching in Europe: key markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-vs-coal-switching-in-europe-key-markets/) - The displacement of coal plant by gas plant is one of the key current focus issues in the European energy industry. A sharp decline in coal prices from 2010 to 2014 drove much of Europe’s gas fired capacity out of merit. But gas plants have started to make a comeback in 2016. Falling gas hub
- [European utility asset sales are ramping up](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-utility-asset-sales-are-ramping-up/) - European utilities have taken a battering so far this decade. Most utilities are suffering balance sheet hangovers from a pre financial crisis spate of aggressive acquisitions and optimistic asset developments. The pain suffered by utilities has been compounded by losses on thermal power assets over the last 5 years, as generation margins have been eroded
- [LNG imports & European gas pricing dynamics](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-imports-european-gas-pricing-dynamics/) - The role of LNG imports into Europe is changing as the result of an oversupplied global gas market. Higher LNG flows into Europe are set to erode the dominance of oil-indexed contracts in driving marginal hub pricing dynamics. This should result in a much more direct relationship between European hub prices and the flow and
- [Has the 2016 commodity price recovery got legs?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/has-the-2016-commodity-price-recovery-got-legs/) - Crude oil has doubled in price since February. The rally in oil has coincided with a broader recovery in global commodity prices including coal. Higher commodity prices have also started to feed through into gas and power markets in Europe. Power prices in Continental markets have risen strongly in Q2. German Calendar Year 2017 baseload
- [French Carbon Price Floor](https://timera-energy.com/blog/french-carbon-price-floor/) - As the European carbon price continues to languish below 5 €/t, France has decided to take action. The French government announced in April that it would follow the UK in unilaterally implementing a carbon price floor targeted at 20-30 €/t. Subsequently in July, an advisory committee commissioned by the government released a report with a
- [Rough storage issues remain a structural threat](https://timera-energy.com/blog/rough-storage-issues-remain-a-structural-threat/) - The UK gas market was hit by a major shock in July in the form of an extended outage at its largest gas storage facility. The immediate impact of Centrica Storage Limited’s (CSL) suspension of injections at the Rough facility was a spike in winter gas prices. Winter prices eased again last week as CSL
- [Continental generation margins: Gas is back](https://timera-energy.com/blog/continental-generation-margins-gas-is-back/) - ‘Positive baseload generation margins for German CCGTs? That’s not possible!’ Exclamations such as this have echoed across European power markets this summer. At the start of 2016, the concept of CCGTs displacing coal plants in the merit order was off the radar. Raising such an idea in front of a Risk or Investment Committee in
- [UK CCGT margins take off, coal plants bleed](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-ccgt-margins-take-off-coal-plants-bleed/) - Some important structural changes are taking place in the UK power market supply stack. 2016 has seen a pronounced shift in favour of gas-fired generators. The flipside of the recovery in CCGT margins and load factors is that UK coal plants are being driven out of merit. In last week’s article we looked at the
- [The impact of declining offshore wind costs](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-impact-of-declining-offshore-wind-costs/) - Competition between European utilities to deliver offshore wind projects is hotting up as companies refocus their business models towards renewable generation development. The low carbon generation technology landscape has been redefined by the results of two offshore wind tenders over the last month. DONG won a July tender to develop two 350MW projects off the
- [The impact of rising coal prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-impact-of-rising-coal-prices/) - 2016 has delivered its fair share of commodity market surprises. But none have been more unexpected than the sharp recovery in coal prices. European benchmark ARA coal prices have increased by more than two thirds since January, from below 45 $/t to more than 75 $/t. This coal price rally has been the principal driver
- [Coal price dump and jump in animation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/coal-price-dump-and-jump-in-animation/) - Spot coal prices continue to surge around the world. As winter approaches, Pacific Basin steaming coal prices have broken above 100 $/tonne. Coking coal prices are above 250 $/t. The price action in the coal market is being driven by Chinese demand. Power plant coal inventories in China are relatively low heading into winter. Chinese
- [Keep an eye on the US dollar, yields and inflation](https://timera-energy.com/blog/keep-an-eye-on-the-us-dollar-yields-and-inflation/) - The US dollar has surged since the election. The dollar index hit its highest level in over a decade last week suggesting that the next leg of the dollar rally that started in 2014 may be under way. A renewed dollar rally is important for energy markets because of an historically negative correlation between the
- [Global gas price convergence: state of play](https://timera-energy.com/blog/global-gas-price-convergence-state-of-play/) - A cold start to the northern winter is breathing some life back into global gas prices. There has been some excitement this month as Asian spot LNG prices have rallied back to around 7.10 $/mmbtu. While this is a steep discount to winter prices over the 2011-14 period, it still represents a sharp rise from
- [Volatility has a gas price anchor](https://timera-energy.com/blog/volatility-has-a-gas-price-anchor/) - European spot gas price volatility has been in structural decline since the middle of last decade. Volatility levels above 200% in the UK gas market were common across the first half of the 2000s. But by 2014 volatility levels had sunk to under 50%. Only in 2016 have the first signs of a more sustained
- [Revisiting our 5 surprises for 2016](https://timera-energy.com/blog/revisiting-our-5-surprises-for-2016/) - ‘We are fairly confident of one thing. 2016 will not be a dull year.’ This was our concluding statement from an article published on the February 1st this year, setting out 5 potential market surprises for 2016. It was hardly a prophetic statement. Crude oil prices had already fallen 20% by the beginning of February
- [UK capacity market surprises again](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-capacity-market-surprises-again/) - The UK capacity market continues to deliver surprises. Large scale CCGT plants were expected to provide most of the new capacity in the third T-4 auction held in December. But small scale peaking generators again dominated the auction, driving down the clearing price to 22.50 £/kW, well below consensus expectations. The evolution of the UK
- [Progressing up the mountain of LNG](https://timera-energy.com/blog/progressing-up-the-mountain-of-lng/) - The LNG market is in the earlier stages of an unprecedented ramp up in supply. Global liquefaction capacity is set to rise by more than 50% by 2022. 205 bcma (149 mtpa) of new liquefaction capacity is past the Financial Investment Division (FID) and is under construction or has come onstream since 2015. We published
- [The impact of LNG imports on hub price volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-impact-of-lng-imports-on-hub-price-volatility/) - After 5 tough years, a glimmer of hope emerged for gas storage operators in 2016. Spot price volatility at European hubs started to show signs of a more enduring recovery. This has been supported by a resurgence in power sector gas demand. Reductions in existing gas supply flexibility have also helped, for example constraints around
- [Interconnector value & the cross-channel tug of war](https://timera-energy.com/blog/interconnector-value-the-cross-channel-tug-of-war/) - It has been an explosive winter in North West European power markets. Elevated prices, spikes and volatility have suddenly returned, in stark contrast to the relatively stable conditions that have become the norm over most of this decade. System stress has been highest in the French and UK power markets. Extended outages at nuclear plants
- [5 surprises for 2017](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-surprises-for-2017/) - Our list of surprises for 2016 focused on changing energy market price dynamics. In Q1 2016, cyclically depressed conditions in a number of markets suggested the risk of major changes in energy pricing trends as the year progressed. We focused on oil, German power, European spark spreads and trans-Atlantic LNG price spreads (see here for
- [UK power: will next winter be a repeat of this one?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-power-will-next-winter-be-a-repeat-of-this-one/) - The UK power market entered this winter with the tightest system reserve margin since market liberalisation in the 1990s. The reserve margin has fallen sharply over the last five years as older gas and coal plants have retired. The closure of three large coal plants in the first half of 2016 set up particularly tight
- [Relative pricing dynamics driving European gas hubs](https://timera-energy.com/blog/relative-pricing-dynamics-driving-european-gas-hubs/) - A number of interesting dynamics have emerged in the European gas market over the last twelve months. On the supply side, relatively low LNG import volumes have been offset by higher Russian flow volumes. This has been pitched as round one in a multi-year Russian vs LNG import battle for European market share. On the
- [Winter LNG spot price volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/winter-lng-spot-price-volatility/) - Global LNG spot prices have been relatively subdued over the past two winters. Increases in global liquefaction capacity and weaker demand have kept regional LNG prices within a relatively tight range of European hub price support. But LNG spot price volatility is back this winter. Asian spot prices surged from just above 7 $/mmbtu at
- [Power sector switching, gas hub prices & volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/power-sector-switching-gas-hub-prices-volatility/) - In early 2016, the idea of a significant recovery in CCGT load factors at the expense of coal plants was treated with a degree of scepticism. CCGT load factors had been in decline for 5 years, driven by a combination of weak coal prices and increasing renewable output. Market consensus was firmly of the view
- [US export flows, the supply glut and Europe](https://timera-energy.com/blog/us-export-flows-the-supply-glut-and-europe/) - The Sabine Pass terminal exported its first cargo in Feb 2016. This marked the start of a new era of US gas exports, an almost unthinkable development from a decade earlier when the US gas market was fighting to ramp up its imports of LNG. While the commissioning of Sabine Pass was of symbolic importance,
- [Evolving trends in LNG contracting](https://timera-energy.com/blog/evolving-trends-in-lng-contracting/) - Several structural trends are combining to change the way that LNG is being contracted. The traditional LNG contracting model was built on long term, destination specific, oil-indexed contracts between producers and suppliers. But a surplus of gas from the current supply glut is boosting the negotiation power of LNG buyers, who are seeking greater volume
- [How higher coal prices support gas hub prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/how-higher-coal-prices-support-gas-hub-prices/) - European gas demand fell by approximately 20% over the first five years of this decade. But 2016 marked a turning point, with demand (including Turkey) rising by 27 bcma (or 5.4%). Of this increase approximately 75% (or 20 bcma) was driven by higher power sector demand. The switching of coal plants for CCGTs was the
- [The UK gas market without Rough](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-uk-gas-market-without-rough/) - Centrica Storage Limited announced on the 12th April that there will be no injections at the Rough storage facility until May 2018 at the earliest. This leaves Rough effectively crippled for at least a year. Rough could return to operation in some constrained form in 2018, but there appears to be a growing threat of
- [Impact of the approaching LNG supply wave](https://timera-energy.com/blog/impact-of-the-approaching-lng-supply-wave/) - Supply growth from new LNG projects has to date been on something of a ‘rolling delay’. Project execution slippage and start-up/commissioning problems have delayed the attainment of designed capacity output levels, particularly in the case of the Australian Gorgon project. This delay phenomenon was also observed in the last supply wave of the mid to
- [A wild winter in European power markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/a-wild-winter-in-european-power-markets/) - The Winter of 2016/17 will be etched in the annals of European power market history. A string of safety related outages highlighted Europe’s dependence on the 63GW fleet of French nuclear plants as a cornerstone of its capacity mix. The resulting generation shortfall drove extreme price volatility in France and sent shockwaves through interconnected neighbouring
- [Germany’s replacement of baseload capacity with wind](https://timera-energy.com/blog/germanys-replacement-of-baseload-capacity-with-wind/) - There was much excitement last month when EnBW and Dong bid to deliver 1.4GW of ‘zero subsidy’ offshore wind projects in the 2017 German offshore wind auction. Grid connection costs for these projects will be borne by German consumers. But the developers will need to recover the remainder of costs from wholesale power price revenue
- [Timera take on the Flame gas conference](https://timera-energy.com/blog/timera-take-on-the-flame-gas-conference/) - Each May the European energy industry convenes in Amsterdam for the annual Flame gas conference. The 2016 conference was somewhat overshadowed by a focus on plunging commodity prices. In contrast, this year’s conference had a more constructive and forward looking perspective. This was driven by a focus on structural themes emerging from the early stages
- [European gas for coal switching boundaries in 2017](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-for-coal-switching-boundaries-in-2017/) - The switching of gas for coal fired power plants was one of the key themes in European energy markets in 2016. Switching drove a 20 bcma recovery in power sector gas demand last year. This reversed the downtrend in European gas demand across the previous five years. A year ago we looked at the relative
- [Europe providing global gas supply flexibility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/europe-providing-global-gas-supply-flexibility/) - Asia dominates global LNG demand. The US and Australia are challenging the Middle East for domination of global LNG supply. But it is Europe that has become the LNG market ‘swing provider’. Chart 1 shows a view of the evolution of European LNG imports this decade. This illustrates Europe’s role as swing provider under different
- [Practical view of Brexit impact on UK gas market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/practical-view-of-brexit-impact-on-uk-gas-market/) - The uncertainty surrounding Brexit is a breeding ground for theories and threats. There are some genuine economic risks posed by Brexit that may have a knock on impact on energy markets. But some increasingly exaggerated claims are circulating as to the direct impact of Brexit on the UK gas market. We are particularly sceptical about
- [European gas supply sources: Norway](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-supply-sources-norway/) - Norway benefits from low sovereign risk, commercial flexibility and close proximity to key gas demand centres. Norwegian exports to Europe hit a record 108.56 bcm in 2016, more than 20% of total European gas demand. But this may well have marked the peak in Norwegian market share. Norwegian gas production from existing fields is maturing
- [The Timera Blog is about to evolve](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-timera-blog-is-about-to-evolve/) - We have been publishing a weekly blog for 6 years now. Our regular readership has grown to more than 15,000 and the blog has evolved into one of the industry’s leading sources of views and analysis on the LNG and European gas & power markets. The blog has been developed based on several key principles:
- [Investment in flexibility: gas peakers](https://timera-energy.com/blog/investment-in-flexibility-gas-peakers/) - A major transformation is underway in European power markets. Ageing coal, gas and nuclear plants are retiring and being replaced to a significant extent by renewable capacity. Loss of existing flexible plants and the inherent intermittency of wind and solar output is driving a requirement for substantial investment in new flexibility. Interconnector investment and transmission
- [How Russia can balance the global gas market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/how-russia-can-balance-the-global-gas-market/) - After the wild ride of 2014-16, a consensus is re-emerging as to the way forward for the LNG market. Across industry conferences, capital market presentations, analyst reports and bar stool discussions, you are likely to have heard a version of the following logic: Oversupply: There is a temporary oversupply due to committed global LNG liquefaction
- [Power price analysis: focus on what matters](https://timera-energy.com/blog/power-price-analysis-focus-on-what-matters/) - We apply three simple rules when we analyse power prices: Confront the reality that the price forecast is going to be wrong Define the key market drivers likely to cause deviations from forecast Focus analysis on these drivers, rather than trying to capture spurious detail This logic quickly points to the conclusion that fuel price
- [Barometers for LNG market tightness](https://timera-energy.com/blog/barometers-for-lng-market-tightness/) - There seems to be an increasingly polarised debate about the state of LNG market balance. This debate turns around use of the term ‘glut’. In the red corner are the ‘supply glut’ crowd. Their view is that committed supply will outstrip demand for at least the next 5 years and that there is plenty of
- [Flexibility investment: New UK CCGTs](https://timera-energy.com/blog/flexibility-investment-new-uk-ccgts/) - New CCGTs have not fared well so far in the UK capacity market. Centrica’s repowering of the Kings Lynn plant (0.4GW) has been the only successful project to date. The gravestone raised over the 2.0 GW Trafford project stands as a warning to overly enthusiastic CCGT developers, after it failed to raise capital and reneged
- [European gas demand recovery: the comeback story](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-demand-recovery-the-comeback-story/) - European gas demand fell 20% across the first half of this decade. Declining CCGT load factors in the power sector were the main driver of this decline, as coal & carbon prices fell and renewable output increased. The fall in gas demand contributed to the emergence of a significant surplus of European gas supply flexibility.
- [An under-estimated driver of gas storage value](https://timera-energy.com/blog/an-under-estimated-driver-of-gas-storage-value/) - Gas storage value is underpinned by an ability to shift gas from lower to higher priced periods. Differences in the value of gas across time periods are commonly referred to as time spreads. Capacity owners focus on two key market price signals for time spread behaviour: Summer/winter price spreads drive the value from seasonal profiling
- [Where will the next wave of LNG supply come from?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/where-will-the-next-wave-of-lng-supply-come-from/) - The 2015-2020 wave of new LNG supply has been built on Australian and US export projects. Australian liquefaction projects were underwritten by long term oil-indexed contracts with Asian buyers. In contrast, US terminals were financed off the back of long term Henry Hub indexed tolling contracts that pushed US gas price risk onto LNG buyers.
- [Oil price animation shows bulls taking charge](https://timera-energy.com/blog/oil-price-animation-shows-bulls-taking-charge/) - Crude prices have broken through some key resistance levels over the last two weeks. Brent front month futures pushed above 60 $/bbl for the first time since Jan 2015. This helped drag the US WTI benchmark above 55 $/bbl shortly after. This bullish breakout in oil prices comes against the backdrop of an intense energy
- [Taking nuclear life extensions seriously](https://timera-energy.com/blog/taking-nuclear-life-extensions-seriously/) - France has reignited the debate around nuclear power plant closures in Europe this month. The French government has just reneged on its promise to reduce the nuclear share of generation output from 75% to 50% by 2025. Why? Nuclear closures of that scale and pace cannot realistically be replaced by renewable generation. So the practical
- [Asian portfolios drive LNG contracting evolution](https://timera-energy.com/blog/asian-portfolios-drive-lng-contracting-evolution/) - Asian demand growth has never been more important for the LNG market. Two credible scenarios bound the range of likely outcomes: High demand – where demand growth broadly keeps pace with currently contracted supply Low demand – where a significant surplus of LNG emerges vs contracted positions by 2020. In either scenario the LNG market
- [Major energy surprises of 2017](https://timera-energy.com/blog/major-energy-surprises-of-2017/) - At the beginning of 2016 we started a tradition of publishing 5 surprises to watch out for on the radar screen. In 2016 we focused on major reversals in market prices given cyclically depressed market conditions. Our surprises included major price reversals in oil & German markets, a recovery in spark spreads and an energy
- [5 energy market surprises for 2018](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-energy-market-surprises-for-2018/) - Welcome back to our first feature article of the year. We kick-off the year with a set of 5 potential surprises to watch for on the radar screen in 2018. Usual caveat – these are surprises to take into consideration, not predictions to anticipate. 1. A setback for LNG prices? Commodity price strength may continue
- [Hub pricing is already winning in Asia](https://timera-energy.com/blog/hub-pricing-is-already-winning-in-asia/) - Have you heard the following arguments? The Asian LNG market cannot transition to hub pricing because: Existing Asian LNG supply contracts are almost all indexed to oil Asia does not have a reliable established trading hub to support gas on gas trading The same arguments were made in Continental Europe 15 years ago and the
- [UK capacity auctions set up stack transition](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-capacity-auctions-set-up-stack-transition/) - The UK power market is preparing for two capacity auctions in Q1 2018. There is no shortage of competition to provide capacity. The outcome of these auctions will be key to determining how the capacity mix will evolve over the next 5 years. In today’s article we look at auction dynamics. We also consider what
- [USD points to higher commodity prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/usd-points-to-higher-commodity-prices/) - Two big years for energy prices Global commodity prices started a major recovery in Q1 2016. Energy markets played a core role in this recovery. Brent crude doubled in price from 27 $/bbl in Jan 2016 to 54 $/bbl by year end. European coal prices also doubled across 2016 to finish the year at 78
- [Capturing UK gas peaker margin](https://timera-energy.com/blog/capturing-uk-gas-peaker-margin/) - Small reciprocating engines are dominating delivery of new capacity in the UK power market. 3.5GW of engines have so far been successful in the UK’s T-4 capacity auctions (2014-16). Engines behind the meter have been the main source of another 2.1 GW of successful DSR capacity. However since the 2016 capacity auction, a policy shift
- [Implications of UK capacity auction results](https://timera-energy.com/blog/implications-of-uk-capacity-auction-results/) - There have been genuine reductions in the costs of flexible capacity over the last 12 months. These have been supported by falling costs of capital as investors target UK power infrastructure. But capacity cost reductions had little to do with an auction clearing price of 8.40 £/kW. The auction result was instead driven by lower
- [Deconstructing LNG shipping costs](https://timera-energy.com/blog/deconstructing-lng-shipping-costs/) - Shipping costs seems like a relatively obscure topic. Yet one of the most popular articles in our blog archive is a 2013 article that provides a breakdown of LNG shipping cost components. So why are people interested? The delivery of LNG cargoes is increasingly being optimised against spot price signals. Margin opportunities in moving LNG
- [Gas market explodes into action](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-market-explodes-into-action/) - Cold weather across North West Europe sparked a surge in gas price volatility last week. The epicentre of system stress was the UK gas market. But the parallel spike in NBP and TTF prices reflected a UK and Dutch fight for gas across the interconnectors, with price shocks reverberating across the European gas hub network.
- [NW Europe’s flexible capacity crunch](https://timera-energy.com/blog/nw-europes-flexible-capacity-crunch/) - The luxury of oversupply There has been a structural oversupply of capacity in North West European power markets this decade (with the notable exception of the UK). Excess capacity has been the result of slower than expected demand growth. This has been exacerbated by an overbuild of thermal assets, particularly new coal and CCGT plants
- [European production flex is declining fast](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-production-flex-is-declining-fast/) - Europe faces a structural decline in domestic gas production. Domestic output (excluding Russia) is set to decline from 252 bcma in 2017 to 150 bcma by 2030. This trend of declining production is well understood. But the associated decline in supply flexibility and seasonality of production flows is less so. Rapid declines in Groningen output
- [Plant closure: Valuing closure option vs alternatives](https://timera-energy.com/blog/plant-closure-valuing-closure-option-vs-alternatives/) - Plant closure decisions are usually driven by expected profit. But a simple assessment of plant profitability is usually an inadequate approach to inform a plant closure decision. This needs to be couched within a structured investment decision framework that maps out: Alternative options (e.g. cost restructuring, refurb, conversion, mothball, repower, reserve contracts) Timing of exercise
- [European gas balance: drivers & prognosis](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-balance-drivers-prognosis/) - European gas demand hit its ‘high-water’ level of 586 bcm in 2010. From 2010 to 2014 demand then reversed sharply, falling 19% (111 bcm), and commencing what many perceived to be an irreversible downward trend. This trend was generally accepted to be in line with the growth of renewables in the power sector (at the
- [LNG oversupply setting up 2020s squeeze](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-oversupply-setting-up-2020s-squeeze/) - ‘There is an LNG glut’. ‘No, the market is tight’. Two tribes have emerged within the LNG market and their views are polar. The glut tribe argues that LNG supply will outpace demand growth over 2018-21, forcing spot prices lower, potentially towards 4 $/mmbtu in order to shut in US exports. The tight market tribe
- [Power sector switching is driving gas hub prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/power-sector-switching-is-driving-gas-hub-prices/) - “Everything comes back to gas prices”. It is not only direct participants in the European gas market that are concerned about the path of hub prices. The direction of TTF and its satellite hubs has a much broader impact across energy markets. For example: Thermal power: Power assets exposed to wholesale power prices have a
- [Belgium’s nuclear driven capacity crunch](https://timera-energy.com/blog/belgiums-nuclear-driven-capacity-crunch/) - Belgium’s nuclear driven capacity crunch Nuclear power is not popular in Belgium. Belgium’s nukes are even more unpopular with Germany and the Netherlands, given their locations near these borders and chequered safety record. Belgium’s reactors are ageing and have suffered several major safety and maintenance issues over the last 5 years. In response to these
- [A new UK CCGT despite no price signal](https://timera-energy.com/blog/a-new-uk-ccgt-despite-no-price-signal/) - The 8 £/kW clearing price in this year’s capacity auction presented a serious roadblock for new CCGT projects. But Scottish utility SSE has mounted the sidewalk and driven around it. SSE announced it is about to commence construction of its Keadby 2 North Lincolnshire CCGT project. SSE will invest £350m in the 840MW plant with
- [Next LNG supply wave: the 5 major players](https://timera-energy.com/blog/next-lng-supply-wave-the-5-major-players/) - The current wave of new LNG supply consists of more than 150 mtpa of committed liquefaction projections coming online between 2015 and 2022. But considerable uncertainty remains as to the size, source and timing of the next wave. In today’s article we take a tour of the 5 countries likely to dominate the provisions of
- [Monetising European gas storage value](https://timera-energy.com/blog/monetising-european-gas-storage-value/) - Storage capacity is a feature of most European gas portfolios. Traders and portfolio managers use storage as a key source of midstream flexibility to manage volume and price risk within portfolios. Storage capacity may be acquired or developed in order to manage inherent ‘short flexibility’ positions in a portfolio e.g. to service retail load swings
- [LNG supply next wave: the challengers](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-supply-next-wave-the-challengers/) - We set out the prospects of the ‘Top 5’ LNG producers club last week. Amongst these, Qatar is the only ‘sure bet’ contributor to the next wave of LNG supply (2023-2030). The other members of the Top 5 have substantial gas reserves, but all could face major cost hurdles in bringing these to market. This
- [Renewables can plug the French capacity gap](https://timera-energy.com/blog/renewables-can-plug-the-french-capacity-gap/) - We recently considered Belgium’s challenges in replacing thermal capacity with renewables. The conclusion: the viability of this approach is risky at best, particularly given current Belgian policy mechanisms. Today we shift our focus to the much larger French power market. In contrast to Belgium, France is in a strong position to replace retiring thermal capacity
- [Global emissions: running to stand still](https://timera-energy.com/blog/global-emissions-running-to-stand-still/) - Decarbonisation has rapidly become one of the driving forces of energy market evolution across the last decade. It is shaping the energy policy landscape, propelling rapid evolution of new technologies and spurring vast investment in new infrastructure. Yet at an aggregate global level there has been no decarbonisation. Global carbon emissions have risen 10% (3.1
- [European emissions: Germany in focus](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-emissions-germany-in-focus/) - European carbon emissions have declined 10% over the last decade, mainly driven by a reduction in power plant emissions. Renewables have led policy efforts to decarbonise the European power sector. But renewable deployment has not been the primary factor driving national emissions performance. Germany has led the renewables investment charge. The renewable share of German
- [How fuel & carbon prices are driving switching](https://timera-energy.com/blog/how-fuel-carbon-prices-are-driving-switching/) - Switching dynamics of gas for coal plant has been a key theme of this blog. Power sector switching is one of three key mechanisms currently setting marginal prices at European gas hubs. The relative variable cost of gas & coal plants is also a key driver of European power price levels and price shape. In
- [Carbon surge driving up TTF & spot LNG prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/carbon-surge-driving-up-ttf-spot-lng-prices/) - A carbon price surge in Europe pulling up LNG prices in China? This may sound like a case of the butterfly effect. But the current tandem rise in carbon and gas prices reflects an important linkage through the European power sector. The carbon vs gas price relationship has come into focus this year as the
- [Battery investment 2: Monetising battery value](https://timera-energy.com/blog/battery-investment-2-monetising-battery-value/) - 2019 may be the breakthrough year for merchant battery investment in the UK. Battery developers have re-focused investment cases on wholesale market returns, given declining ancillary revenues, cuts to embedded benefits and the slashing of battery capacity derating factors. As other sources of margin recede, the UK battery investment case has shifted to focus on
- [Global gas market risk shifting to the upside](https://timera-energy.com/blog/global-gas-market-risk-shifting-to-the-upside/) - Price behaviour is the most objective barometer of market balance. And gas prices in 2018 are signalling a tightening market. Two price moves this year have sent up a flare that risk is shifting to the upside. Firstly, Asian LNG prices maintained a significant premium (1.0-2.5 $/mmbtu) above European hub prices across summer 2018. Asian
- [3 key factors driving European hub prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/3-key-factors-driving-european-hub-prices/) - European hub prices have roughly doubled since Summer 2017 from 5 to 10 $/mmbtu (15 to 30 €/MWh). Half of this price move has happened in a surge between Jul and Sep 2018. Hub prices are sending a clear signal that the European gas market is tightening fast. Three key factors are driving current hub
- [Power plant optionality & dispatch cost hurdles](https://timera-energy.com/blog/power-plant-optionality-dispatch-cost-hurdles/) - The transition taking place in European power markets is reshaping supply stacks. Retiring coal, CCGT & nuclear plants are being replaced with a combination of: Renewables: zero/low variable cost capacity, dominated by wind and solar Peaking flex: higher variable cost capacity, dominated by gas engines, batteries and DSR. This structural shift in capacity mix is
- [Russian capacity to get gas into Europe](https://timera-energy.com/blog/russian-capacity-to-get-gas-into-europe/) - As winter approaches the European gas market is looking east. A tight market increases the importance of Russian flows to maintain orderly hub prices and security of supply. Gazprom has ample production capacity to ramp up exports to Europe, supported by 80+ bcma of ‘shut in’ gas in Western Siberia. But there are some key
- [Quantifying wind & solar intermittency](https://timera-energy.com/blog/quantifying-wind-solar-intermittency/) - Averaging wind and solar output volumes reveals some structural patterns. Wind output tends to be higher during the day time than at night and has a seasonal profile. Solar output is also seasonal with a strong linkage to daylight hours. But analysing power markets based on average conditions, understates the true impact of system intermittency
- [Shock suspension of UK Capacity Market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/shock-suspension-of-uk-capacity-market/) - Last Thursday the UK government abruptly halted the Capacity Market to comply with a European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruling. The implications of this are an immediate stop to capacity payments under existing agreements and the cancelling of auctions in 2019. The government’s announcement was the equivalent of an immediate and indefinite zero capacity price
- [LNG shipping distances drive up costs](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-shipping-distances-drive-up-costs/) - LNG shipping has grabbed an unusual amount of headline space across the last year. The primary reason has been a tripling in spot LNG vessel charter rates between Q1 and Q4 2018. Charter rates rose from $70k to $220k per day, before falling back towards $150k towards the end of the year. A shipping cost
- [LNG market balance in 5 charts](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-market-balance-in-5-charts/) - 2018 was a year that confounded LNG market expectations of winter squeezes and summer lulls. The market was tight over summer, with Asia pulling available cargoes away from Europe. At the same time, a carbon price induced rise in TTF helped drive Asian spot LNG prices to their highest levels of the year across the
- [5 energy market surprises for 2019](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-energy-market-surprises-for-2019/) - Welcome back to our first feature article for 2019. As has become tradition we start the year with five surprises to watch for on your radar screens. Usual caveat: these are not forecasts or predictions but cover areas were we think it is worth challenging prevailing market consensus. 1.UK capacity payments reinstated The sudden suspension
- [Renewables in action: a German case study](https://timera-energy.com/blog/renewables-in-action-a-german-case-study/) - The roll out of wind and solar capacity is transforming power markets across Europe. If you want to understand the practical impacts of high renewable penetration, Germany is a great place to start. Renewable generation output contributed about 38% of gross German electricity consumption in 2018. The German market is particularly interesting because renewable production
- [Variable cost a key differentiator for storage](https://timera-energy.com/blog/variable-cost-a-key-differentiator-for-storage/) - Like cars, gas storage assets come in a range of sizes and speeds. Any conversation comparing the relative merits of different storage assets tends to focus on: Working volume – how much gas you can store Cycling performance – relative rates of injection and withdrawal. These headline attributes are definitely important in evaluating a storage
- [Europe & Asian gas prices slump](https://timera-energy.com/blog/europe-asian-gas-prices-slump/) - European hub prices have fallen 40% since Sep 2018. This is a substantial move over a five month period. It is even more impressive because the price decline has occurred across winter. In today’s article we look at why gas prices are falling hard in Europe and Asia. We also consider the important shift in
- [TTF animation shows wild gas curve swings](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-animation-shows-wild-gas-curve-swings/) - Given the complex nature of energy markets, a good chart can be worth a thousand words. Animating a series of charts and turning them into a movie can be even more valuable. In our article today we apply this approach to illustrate the evolution of TTF prices over the last two years. Chart 1 is
- [Power price uncertainty: a UK case study](https://timera-energy.com/blog/power-price-uncertainty-a-uk-case-study/) - Baseload power prices are becoming irrelevant. This is down to the simple fact that a diminishing number of power assets run to a baseload profile. Asset values are instead increasingly dependent on fluctuations in power prices close to delivery (‘prompt prices’). The value of flexible assets, such as gas-fired power plants, hydro storage, batteries &
- [Shell, Limejump, Gridserve & business model evolution](https://timera-energy.com/blog/shell-limejump-gridserve-business-model-evolution/) - Two deals were announced at the end of February that highlight two structural trends transforming European energy markets: Small players driving innovation & Large incumbent players looking to diversify business models. Deal 1: Gridserve sets out a new model for unsubsidised solar + batteries UK based developer Gridserve has agreed a deal with a local
- [A new wave of LNG supply is building](https://timera-energy.com/blog/a-new-wave-of-lng-supply-is-building/) - European and Asian spot gas prices have halved across the last six months. European hub prices are currently testing the 5.0 $/mmbtu level, down from almost 10 $/mmbtu in late September 2018. The key JKM Asian price marker has converged towards TTF price support and is currently around 5.5 $/mmbtu. This plunge in prices across
- [The changing role of UK’s gas interconnectors](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-changing-role-of-uks-gas-interconnectors/) - 2019 is going to be an important year of transition for the two key interconnectors that link the UK with Continental gas markets. The IUK pipe between UK and Belgium is entering its first year without long term contracts. The Q4 2018 introduction of shorter term capacity products is already structurally changing flow patterns
- [Power sector setting gas prices in Europe](https://timera-energy.com/blog/power-sector-setting-gas-prices-in-europe/) - Two European gas market records were broken in March. Both LNG and Russian monthly import volumes surged to their highest levels in history. This has meant that gas is being pushed into the European market at an unprecedented rate. Prices have responded accordingly. As we set out last week, the US LNG shut in price
- [Gas prices plunge towards US LNG shut in levels](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-prices-plunge-towards-us-lng-shut-in-levels/) - Off-piste descent for gas prices TTF prices fell by more than 50% across Winter 2018-19. No... that is not an April Fool’s joke. The decline in European and Asian gas prices across the last six months has been steep and relentless. The price decline gathered pace in Q1 2019 as shown in Chart 1. As
- [Challenging three battery investment 'myths'](https://timera-energy.com/blog/challenging-three-battery-investment-myths/) - ‘Battery storage flexibility is a key building block of a decarbonised power sector.’ This statement is not a myth. In fact it is almost a truism. Intermittent renewables will dominate electricity supply in a decarbonised world. Wind and solar output require a low carbon source of flexible backup. Rapidly declining battery costs will facilitate broad
- [Headwinds for UK gas engine margins](https://timera-energy.com/blog/headwinds-for-uk-gas-engine-margins/) - When the UK capacity market was introduced in 2014, large grid connected CCGTs were anticipated to be the primary provider of new capacity. Step forward five years and it is distribution connected gas reciprocating engines that have taken the largest share of the pie. The success of gas engines has been driven by a combination
- [Russia, LNG & the next 3 years](https://timera-energy.com/blog/russia-lng-the-next-3-years/) - European LNG import volumes set another new record in Apr-19, following the previous record set last month. Volumes are up about 230% compared to this time last year. In the face of an onslaught of LNG, Russia has not flinched. Import volumes from Gazprom in Apr-19 also set a new record. A fascinating battle between
- [Gas vs coal plant switching practicalities](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-vs-coal-plant-switching-practicalities/) - The switching dynamics of European gas for coal plants have never been more important than in 2019. Falling hub prices are tipping the competitive balance in favour of gas-fired plants. Front month TTF prices last week plunged towards 10 €/MWh (3.60 $/mmbtu) as near record volumes of LNG & Russian imports continue to flow into
- [Resurgence in UK gas storage value](https://timera-energy.com/blog/resurgence-in-uk-gas-storage-value/) - Investment in gas storage, like most energy asset classes, has strong cyclical dynamics. Storage cycles are reinforced by relatively long project construction lead times. It can take 3 to 5 years to bring capacity online after making an investment decision, by which time market conditions can have shifted from ‘boom’ to ‘bust’. The UK gas
- [The relevance of a near zero UK capacity price](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-relevance-of-a-near-zero-uk-capacity-price/) - The latest T-1 UK capacity auction cleared at 0.77 £/kW on Wed last week. That is 87% lower than the last T-1 clearing price (at 6 £/MWh). 77 pence represents back pocket change. If you tipped a waiter this amount you’d risk your having your coffee ‘spilled’ all over you. Shock is a natural first
- [Value drivers for Spanish CCGTs](https://timera-energy.com/blog/value-drivers-for-spanish-ccgts/) - Foreign investor interest in the Spanish power market has ebbed and flowed since deregulation. Over this period, Spain has benefited from substantial foreign ownership and investment in energy assets. But investment conditions over the last 5 years have been tough. Spain was one of Europe’s leaders in renewables deployment at the start of this decade.
- [FX movements driving energy prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/fx-movements-driving-energy-prices/) - Global trade & geo-political tensions have been steadily rising this year. For example the US-China trade war (& broader power struggle behind this), US-Iran tensions and Brexit. In parallel, the monetary policy measures of central banks are becoming increasingly unconventional and aggressive (e.g. negative interest rates & structural quantitative easing). These dynamics are likely to
- [Will European gas prices recover or ‘snowplough’?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/will-european-gas-prices-recover-or-snowplough/) - Time for a simple thought experiment. If you had a ‘one shot’ chance to gaze into a crystal ball and see the evolution of one energy market driver over the next two years, what would you choose? European gas pricing dynamics would be at the top of our list. Despite rapidly declining hub prices in
- [Inter-market shock roils power, TTF & JKM](https://timera-energy.com/blog/inter-market-shock-roils-power-ttf-jkm/) - In our snapshot column last week we flagged a huge rally in power & gas forward curves. The move was driven by three announcements that surprised bearishly positioned markets last Tuesday. The most important of these was EDF flagging potential new safety issues with its French nuclear fleet. Markets may have short memories, but not
- [Asian LNG demand stalls in H1 2019](https://timera-energy.com/blog/asian-lng-demand-stalls-in-h1-2019/) - For several years we have framed the evolution of the LNG market supply & demand balance around one key driver: Asian demand growth. The ability of the market to absorb more than 100 mtpa of committed new supply across 2015-21 depends on Asia. But Asian demand growth has stalled in 2019. 2019 and 2020 are
- [Evolution of UK balancing flexibility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/evolution-of-uk-balancing-flexibility/) - Billions of pounds are being invested in flexible peaking capacity in the UK, as the coal fleet closes and older gas plants retire. The two dominant technologies being deployed are gas reciprocating engines and shorter duration lithium-ion batteries. Only a small volume of this new peaking capacity currently operates in the UK’s Balancing Mechanism (BM).
- [Steven Coppack joins Timera](https://timera-energy.com/blog/steven-coppack-joins-timera/)
- [Jon Brown joins Timera](https://timera-energy.com/blog/jon-brown-joins-timera/)
- [UK capacity market 'back in play'](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-capacity-market-back-in-play/)
- [Valuing European LNG regas capacity](https://timera-energy.com/blog/valuing-european-lng-regas-capacity/) - European regas capacity is back & flashing on the commercial radar screen. The obvious explanation for this is a jump in terminal utilisation over the last 12 months as Europe absorbs surplus LNG. There are however other structural drivers behind a renewed interest in regas capacity. Liquid hub access is becoming more important as a
- [Tommy Rowland joins Timera](https://timera-energy.com/blog/tommy-rowland-joins-timera/)
- [5 chart focus: Continental European power](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-chart-focus-continental-european-power/)
- [5 chart focus: European gas market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/5-chart-focus-european-gas-market/)
- [Hydrogen's path into the gas supply chain](https://timera-energy.com/blog/hydrogens-path-into-the-gas-supply-chain/)
- [Spanish LNG imports switch out coal](https://timera-energy.com/blog/spanish-lng-imports-switch-out-coal/)
- [Storage capacity prices highest since 2012](https://timera-energy.com/blog/storage-capacity-prices-highest-since-2012/)
- [TTF seasonal spreads reach 10 year high](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-seasonal-spreads-reach-10-year-high/)
- [Where will the surprises come from in 2020?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/where-will-the-surprises-come-from-in-2020/)
- [Can renewables replace German nukes?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/can-renewables-replace-german-nukes/)
- [TTF pricing in longer LNG supply surplus](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-pricing-in-longer-lng-supply-surplus/)
- [RO roll off to boost merchant wind volumes](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ro-roll-off-to-boost-merchant-wind-volumes/)
- [Russian exports to Europe down in 2020](https://timera-energy.com/blog/russian-exports-to-europe-down-in-2020/)
- [Chinese & Indian LNG imports hold up](https://timera-energy.com/blog/chinese-indian-lng-imports-hold-up/)
- [Covid-19 impact on gas forward curves](https://timera-energy.com/blog/covid-19-impact-on-gas-forward-curves/)
- [Russian gas imports fall sharply in 2020](https://timera-energy.com/blog/russian-gas-imports-fall-sharply-in-2020/)
- [TTF prices fall through Henry Hub](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-prices-fall-through-henry-hub/)
- [Where is Europe regasifying record LNG?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/where-is-europe-regasifying-record-lng/)
- [French nuclear outages cause price surge](https://timera-energy.com/blog/french-nuclear-outages-cause-price-surge/)
- [US shut ins drag down European LNG imports](https://timera-energy.com/blog/us-shut-ins-drag-down-european-lng-imports/)
- [Gas storage margins continue to rise](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-storage-margins-continue-to-rise/)
- [Gas & power price recovery continues](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-power-price-recovery-continues/)
- [Surge in Turkish LNG imports in 2020](https://timera-energy.com/blog/surge-in-turkish-lng-imports-in-2020/)
- [Asian LNG demand proving resilient to Covid](https://timera-energy.com/blog/asian-lng-demand-proving-resilient-to-covid/)
- [Co-located battery value benefit breakdown](https://timera-energy.com/blog/co-located-battery-value-benefit-breakdown/)
- [Russia has turned the gas taps down](https://timera-energy.com/blog/russia-has-turned-the-gas-taps-down/) - Gazprom has been very successful in boosting gas exports to Europe across the 2017-2019 period. This came at a cost in 2019 as high Russian flows and large volumes of surplus LNG coincided, driving European hub prices ~50% lower across the year. Europe has absorbed large volumes of surplus LNG again in 2020, but Gazprom’s
- [Carbon prices push €30/t on policy tightening](https://timera-energy.com/blog/carbon-prices-push-e30-t-on-policy-tightening/)
- [European LNG imports down in Q3](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-lng-imports-down-in-q3/) - Last winter saw new records set for LNG imports, as surplus cargos continued to flow into European hubs. The Covid demand shock saw that continue into Q2, but imports have fallen since June. Three reasons have contributed: (i) shut in of US export volumes has eased the cargo surplus since Q2 (ii) spot Asian LNG
- [David Duncan joins Timera as an Analyst](https://timera-energy.com/blog/david-duncan-joins-timera-as-an-analyst/) - David Duncan joins Timera from RWE Supply & Trading bringing further practical industry experience to our analyst team. 5 things to know about David: Summary: David started his career with RWE in 2017 and has worked across several commercial front office analyst roles. These have covered analysis of market drivers and the optimisation & hedging
- [European EV market share rising fast](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-ev-market-share-rising-fast/) - A study released this week by policy group Transport & Environment shows a tripling in EV share of sold vehicles across Europe in 2020. The forecast incorporates actual data to the end of Q2 2020 (bottom chart), with UK, Italy & Germany leading the charge. The EV share of European vehicle sales is forecast to
- [Big fall in NW Europe LNG volumes](https://timera-energy.com/blog/big-fall-in-nw-europe-lng-volumes/) - As oversupply in the LNG market eases and prices recover, there has been a sharp decline in LNG deliveries into NW Europe. The charts show the fall in UK & French LNG sendout volumes since May 2020. Regas terminal send out volumes in these two countries are an important barometer of the volumes of surplus
- [Strong Chinese & Indian LNG demand](https://timera-energy.com/blog/strong-chinese-indian-lng-demand/)
- [French power prices soften as nuclear availability improves](https://timera-energy.com/blog/french-power-prices-soften-as-nuclear-availability-improves/)
- [French nuclear output recovery set to stall in Q1-21](https://timera-energy.com/blog/french-nuclear-output-recovery-set-to-stall-in-q1-21/)
- [US LNG resurgence fails to slow JKM strength](https://timera-energy.com/blog/us-lng-resurgence-fails-to-slow-jkm-strength/)
- [Henry Hub and Brent pathways diverge](https://timera-energy.com/blog/henry-hub-and-brent-pathways-diverge/)
- [Italian auction underpins new battery investments](https://timera-energy.com/blog/italian-auction-underpins-new-battery-investments/)
- [How power markets have absorbed the 2020 shock](https://timera-energy.com/blog/how-power-markets-have-absorbed-the-2020-shock/)
- [Interbasin LNG spreads rocket](https://timera-energy.com/blog/interbasin-lng-spreads-rocket/)
- [Brexit drives UK power price divergence](https://timera-energy.com/blog/brexit-drives-uk-power-price-divergence/)
- [Dynamic Containment prices boost UK battery revenue](https://timera-energy.com/blog/dynamic-containment-prices-boost-uk-battery-revenue/)
- [Firm coal market supports European gas prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog/firm-coal-market-supports-european-gas-prices/)
- [EU swings behind blue hydrogen to support scaling](https://timera-energy.com/blog/eu-swings-behind-blue-hydrogen-to-support-scaling/)
- [Asian LNG imports start 2021 strongly](https://timera-energy.com/blog/asian-lng-imports-start-2021-strongly/)
- [DC battery price signal remains strong](https://timera-energy.com/blog/dc-battery-price-signal-remains-strong/)
- [UK T-1 capacity price surges](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-t-1-capacity-price-surges/)
- [Breakdown behind the 18 £/kW capacity clearing price](https://timera-energy.com/blog/breakdown-behind-the-18-kw-capacity-clearing-price/)
- [Asian LNG imports continue structural growth](https://timera-energy.com/blog/asian-lng-imports-continue-structural-growth/)
- [DC volumes and cross revenue stream optimisations increase](https://timera-energy.com/blog/dc-volumes-and-cross-revenue-stream-optimisations-increase/)
- [LNG demand & the two Asian tigers](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-demand-the-two-asian-tigers/)
- [TTF forward curve explodes higher](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-forward-curve-explodes-higher/)
- [Watch out for a carbon price reversal](https://timera-energy.com/blog/watch-out-for-a-carbon-price-reversal/)
- [An uphill battle to refill European gas storages](https://timera-energy.com/blog/an-uphill-battle-to-refill-european-gas-storages/)
- [South American LNG imports rebound in 2021](https://timera-energy.com/blog/south-american-lng-imports-rebound-in-2021/)
- [Key LNG exporters swing away from Europe](https://timera-energy.com/blog/key-lng-exporters-swing-away-from-europe/)
- [TTF tops the European power switching ranges](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-tops-the-european-power-switching-ranges/)
- [Coal making a comeback in Germany](https://timera-energy.com/blog/coal-making-a-comeback-in-germany/)
- [Henry Hub breaks above 4 $/mmbtu](https://timera-energy.com/blog/henry-hub-breaks-above-4-mmbtu/)
- [European LNG sendout plummets](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-lng-sendout-plummets/)
- [UK battery rollout continues at pace](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-battery-rollout-continues-at-pace/)
- [UK Hydrogen Strategy targets 20-fold demand increase by 2050](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-hydrogen-strategy-targets-20-fold-demand-increase-by-2050/)
- [Nigerian LNG production down by 20% in 2021](https://timera-energy.com/blog/nigerian-lng-production-down-by-20-in-2021/)
- [JKM-TTF spread rebounds in Q1-22](https://timera-energy.com/blog/jkm-ttf-spread-rebounds-in-q1-22/)
- [Low wind & outages see UK electricity prices surge](https://timera-energy.com/blog/low-wind-outages-see-uk-electricity-prices-surge/)
- [Record TTF prices hit the mainstream](https://timera-energy.com/blog/record-ttf-prices-hit-the-mainstream/)
- [UK & EU carbon prices diverge](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-eu-carbon-prices-diverge/)
- [China dominates Asian LNG demand growth](https://timera-energy.com/blog/china-dominates-asian-lng-demand-growth/)
- [TTF volatility continues](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-volatility-continues/)
- [Algerian pipeline flows to Italy and Spain diverge](https://timera-energy.com/blog/algerian-pipeline-flows-to-italy-and-spain-diverge/)
- [European carbon prices continue steep trajectory](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-carbon-prices-continue-steep-trajectory/)
- [Turkish winter LNG demand arrives early](https://timera-energy.com/blog/turkish-winter-lng-demand-arrives-early/)
- [European LNG imports stage recovery](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-lng-imports-stage-recovery/)
- [UK power prices rocket in evening peaks](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-power-prices-rocket-in-evening-peaks/)
- [European gas market continues to break records](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-market-continues-to-break-records/)
- [Europe competes for LNG supply](https://timera-energy.com/blog/europe-competes-for-lng-supply/)
- [French nuclear output slumps](https://timera-energy.com/blog/french-nuclear-output-slumps/)
- [Brent Crude reaches 7 year highs](https://timera-energy.com/blog/brent-crude-reaches-7-year-highs/)
- [NW European regas touches all-time highs](https://timera-energy.com/blog/nw-european-regas-touches-all-time-highs/)
- [Wind intermittency driving requirement for UK flexibility](https://timera-energy.com/blog/wind-intermittency-driving-requirement-for-uk-flexibility/)
- [Capacity deficit set to clear UK T-1 auction at cap](https://timera-energy.com/blog/capacity-deficit-set-to-clear-uk-t-1-auction-at-cap/)
- [Dual drivers compress European gas curve](https://timera-energy.com/blog/dual-drivers-compress-european-gas-curve/)
- [Gas prices soar as Russia invades Ukraine](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-prices-soar-as-russia-invades-ukraine/)
- [Germany’s wide ranging policy response to Russian invasion](https://timera-energy.com/blog/germanys-wide-ranging-policy-response-to-russian-invasion/)
- [Europe dynamically competes with Asia for LNG](https://timera-energy.com/blog/europe-dynamically-competes-with-asia-for-lng/)
- [Low nuclear output drives French power price premium](https://timera-energy.com/blog/low-nuclear-output-drives-french-power-price-premium/)
- [TTF pricing: ruble payment concerns or something else?](https://timera-energy.com/blog/ttf-pricing-ruble-payment-concerns-or-something-else/)
- [European carbon price recovery stumbles on EC plan](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-carbon-price-recovery-stumbles-on-ec-plan/)
- [The UK dives to a discount European power market](https://timera-energy.com/blog/the-uk-dives-to-a-discount-european-power-market/)
- [Gas supply concerns shift towards the winter](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-supply-concerns-shift-towards-the-winter/)
- [French winter power prices rocket](https://timera-energy.com/blog/french-winter-power-prices-rocket/)
- [UK frequency response service suite expands](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-frequency-response-service-suite-expands/)
- [EUR breaks lower, USD surges, commodities take a hit](https://timera-energy.com/blog/eur-breaks-lower-usd-surges-commodities-take-a-hit/)
- [GB power prices continue discount to NW Europe](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gb-power-prices-continue-discount-to-nw-europe/)
- [Nord Stream 1 returns amid EU fears](https://timera-energy.com/blog/nord-stream-1-returns-amid-eu-fears/)
- [Competition for LNG drives dynamic inter-regional price signals](https://timera-energy.com/blog/competition-for-lng-drives-dynamic-inter-regional-price-signals/)
- [Heat wave leads to second summer GB Capacity Market Notice](https://timera-energy.com/blog/heat-wave-leads-to-second-summer-gb-capacity-market-notice/)
- [Why European power curves just fell 50% in a week](https://timera-energy.com/blog/why-european-power-curves-just-fell-50-in-a-week/)
- [Robust EU gas storage levels to face challenges](https://timera-energy.com/blog/robust-eu-gas-storage-levels-to-face-challenges/)
- [European carbon prices plummet again from highs](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-carbon-prices-plummet-again-from-highs/)
- [Russian pipeline gas supply to Europe dwindles](https://timera-energy.com/blog/russian-pipeline-gas-supply-to-europe-dwindles/)
- [Oil prices firm from 8 month low](https://timera-energy.com/blog/oil-prices-firm-from-8-month-low/)
- [LNG charter rates climb sharply into winter](https://timera-energy.com/blog/lng-charter-rates-climb-sharply-into-winter/)
- [French nuclear fleet targets optimistic resurgence](https://timera-energy.com/blog/french-nuclear-fleet-targets-optimistic-resurgence/)
- [French power prices relax, but remain elevated](https://timera-energy.com/blog/french-power-prices-relax-but-remain-elevated/)
- [European coal prices continue slide, carbon rebounds](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-coal-prices-continue-slide-carbon-rebounds/)
- [Spanish CCGT generation remains robust, supported by gas price cap](https://timera-energy.com/blog/spanish-ccgt-generation-remains-robust-supported-by-gas-price-cap/)
- [Asian LNG imports remained depressed through October](https://timera-energy.com/blog/18907-2/)
- [Capacity Market Notice highlights lack of GB flex](https://timera-energy.com/blog/capacity-market-notice-highlights-lack-of-gb-flex/)
- [European gas prices drop to pre-war lows](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-prices-drop-to-pre-war-lows/)
- [French nuclear generation recovery aids power price plummet](https://timera-energy.com/blog/french-nuclear-fleet-continues-to-influence-power-prices/)
- [European gas storage spreads normalise](https://timera-energy.com/blog/analysing-ttf-storage-spreads/)
- [GB clean spark spreads fall 90% from highs, though remain elevated](https://timera-energy.com/blog/gb-clean-spark-spreads-fall-ma-2023/)
- [Pacific coal prices retain record premium over Europe](https://timera-energy.com/blog/pacific-coal-prices-retain-record-premium-over-europe/)
- [Asian LNG demand shows signs of recovery](https://timera-energy.com/blog/asian-lng-demand-shows-signs-of-recovery/)
- [Global LNG exports enter 2023 at new highs](https://timera-energy.com/blog/global-lng-exports-enter-2023-at-new-highs/)
- [UK capacity auction smashes price record](https://timera-energy.com/blog/uk-capacity-auction-smashes-price-record/)
- [EU carbon prices test 100 €/t again](https://timera-energy.com/blog/eu-carbon-prices-test-100-e-t-again/)
- [European power demand declines continue into 2023](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-power-demand-declines-continue-into-2023/)
- [European gas stocks exit winter with a significant buffer](https://timera-energy.com/blog/european-gas-storage/)

## Capabilities

- [Power](https://timera-energy.com/capabilities/power/) - Asset valuation, Due diligence, Transaction support, Investing targeting, Portfolio strategy
- [LNG & Gas](https://timera-energy.com/capabilities/lng-gas/) - Asset valuation, Due diligence, Transaction support, Investing targeting, Portfolio strategy
- [Market analysis](https://timera-energy.com/capabilities/market-analysis/) - S&D analysis, stochastic modelling, price analysis, volatility analysis, flex value drivers
- [Value management](https://timera-energy.com/capabilities/value-management/) - Asset monetisation, Portfolio optimisation, Offtake contracting, Risk management, Analytics
- [Investment support](https://timera-energy.com/capabilities/investment/) - Asset valuation, Due diligence, Transaction support, Investing targeting, Portfolio strategy
- [Hydrogen](https://timera-energy.com/capabilities/hydrogen/) - Asset valuation, Due diligence, Transaction support, Investing targeting, Portfolio strategy

## Case Studies

- [DE BESS transaction support](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/de-bess-transaction-support/)
- [DE & GB BESS downside protection](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/de-gb-bess-downside-protection/)
- [Interconnector bid support](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/interconnector-bid-support/)
- [BESS offtake contract support](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/bess-offtake-contract-support/)
- [GIGA Storage acquisition](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/giga-storage-acquisition/)
- [Impact of electrolysers on European power markets](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/impact-of-electrolysers-on-european-power-markets/)
- [Risk management advice](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/risk-management-advice/)
- [LNG Bridge implementation](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/lng-bridge-implementation-2/)
- [LNG portfolio transaction support](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/lng-portfolio-transaction-support/)
- [Lending support for GB flex portfolio](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/lending-support-for-gb-flex-portfolio/)
- [Bid support for utility acquisition](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/bid-support-for-utility-acquisition/)
- [Hydrogen supply chain optimisation model](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/hydrogen-supply-chain-optimisation-model/)
- [Electrolyser investment analysis](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/electrolyser-investment-analysis-h2/)
- [Pipeline valuation](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/pipeline-valuation/)
- [Gas storage monetisation](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/gas-storage-monetisation/)
- [US LNG toll valuation](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/us-lng-toll-valuation/)
- [European regas investment support](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/european-regas-investment-support/)
- [European regas strategy](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/european-regas-strategy/)
- [Hydrogen storage sizing analysis](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/hydrogen-storage-sizing-analysis/)
- [US LNG export contract analysis](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/us-lng-export-contract-analysis/)
- [Thermal / BESS market access & hedging](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/thermal-bess-market-access-hedging/)
- [LNG Bridge implementation](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/lng-bridge-implementation/)
- [Evolution of volume & pricing of hydrogen in Europe](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/evolution-of-volume-pricing-of-hydrogen-in-europe/)
- [Mining supply chain decarbonisation using green H2](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/mining-supply-chain-decarbonisation-using-green-h2/)
- [Battery & peaker portfolio monetisation](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/battery-peaker-portfolio-monetisation/)
- [Thermal power portfolio acquisition](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/thermal-power-portfolio-acquisition/)
- [Utility portfolio hedging](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/utility-portfolio-hedging/)
- [Gas storage transaction support](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/gas-storage-transaction-support/)
- [LNG contract arbitration & re-opener support](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/lng-contract-arbitration-re-opener-support/)
- [CCGT portfolio hedging strategy](https://timera-energy.com/case-studies/5401/)

## Teams

- [Seth Haskell](https://timera-energy.com/team/seth-haskell/)
- [Arthur Finch](https://timera-energy.com/team/arthur-finch/)
- [Alessio Cunico](https://timera-energy.com/team/alessio-cunico/)
- [Arshpreet Dhatt](https://timera-energy.com/team/arshpreet-dhatt/)
- [Sam Kayne](https://timera-energy.com/team/sam-kayne/)
- [Lemuel Lee](https://timera-energy.com/team/lemuel-lee/)
- [Chris Hesman](https://timera-energy.com/team/chris-hesman/)
- [Victoria Tait](https://timera-energy.com/team/victoria-tait/)
- [Sarah Harper](https://timera-energy.com/team/sarah-harper/)
- [George Stuttard](https://timera-energy.com/team/george-stuttard/)
- [Rory Perkins](https://timera-energy.com/team/rory-perkins/)
- [Davied Mak](https://timera-energy.com/team/davied-mak/)
- [Luke Cottell](https://timera-energy.com/team/luke-cottell/)
- [Esme Chowdhry](https://timera-energy.com/team/esme-chowdry/)
- [Lucienne Hill Smith](https://timera-energy.com/team/lucienne-hill-smith/)
- [Kaan Cengiz](https://timera-energy.com/team/kaan-cengiz/)
- [Steven Coppack](https://timera-energy.com/team/steven-coppack/)
- [Louisa Howse](https://timera-energy.com/team/louisa-howse/)
- [Phil Robinson](https://timera-energy.com/team/phil-robinson/)
- [Howard Rogers](https://timera-energy.com/team/howard-rogers/)
- [David Duncan](https://timera-energy.com/team/david-duncan/)
- [David Stokes](https://timera-energy.com/team/david-stokes/)
- [Olly Spinks](https://timera-energy.com/team/olly-spinks/)

## Article Types

- [News](https://timera-energy.com/article-type/news/)
- [Featured](https://timera-energy.com/article-type/featured/)
- [Snapshot](https://timera-energy.com/article-type/snapshot/)

## Blog Categories

- [energy markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/energy-markets/)
- [European gas market](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/european-gas-market/)
- [featured article](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/featured/)
- [global commodity markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/global-commodity-markets/)
- [European power market](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/european-power-market/)
- [asset valuation](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/asset-valuation/)
- [macro (FX,i-rates)](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/macro-fxi-rates/)
- [analytical methodology](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/analytical-methodology/)
- [value management](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/value-management/)
- [risk management](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/risk-management/)
- [asset investment](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/asset-investment/)
- [business model](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/business-model/)
- [LNG market](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/lng-market/)
- [transactions](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/transactions/)
- [policy & regulation](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/policy-regulation/)
- [Battery Storage](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/battery-storage/)
- [Hydrogen](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/hydrogen/)
- [Webinar](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/webinar/)
- [power prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/power-prices/)
- [renewables](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/renewables/)
- [gas storage](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/gas-storage/)
- [switching](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/switching/)
- [Asian demand](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/asian-demand/)
- [LNG shipping](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/lng-shipping/)
- [Gas prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/gas-prices/)
- [Capacity market](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/capacity-market/)
- [Cfd](https://timera-energy.com/blog-category/cfd/)

## Blog Tags

- [price volatility](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/volatility/)
- [conventional power plant](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/conventional-power-plant/)
- [extrinsic value](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/extrinsic-value/)
- [hedging & optimisation](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/hedging-optimisation/)
- [policy & regulation](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/policy-regulation/)
- [supply & demand](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/supply-demand/)
- [midstream](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/midstream/)
- [prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/prices/)
- [contracting](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/contracting/)
- [interconnectors](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/interconnectors/)
- [gas transportation](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/gas-transportation/)
- [gas storage](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/gas-storage/)
- [capacity markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/capacity-markets/)
- [price spreads](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/price-spreads/)
- [renewable power](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/renewable-power/)
- [transactions](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/transactions/)
- [upstream](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/upstream/)
- [distributed energy & DSR](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/distributed-energy-dsr/)
- [electricity storage](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/electricity-storage/)
- [nuclear power](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/nuclear-power/)
- [pol](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/pol/)
- [De](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/de/)
- [batteries](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/batteries/)
- [hydrogen](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/hydrogen/)
- [power plant](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/power-plant/)
- [LNG](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/lng/)
- [wind](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/wind/)
- [Oil](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/oil/)
- [Power](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/power/)
- [Electricity](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/electricity/)
- [Gas plants](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/gas-plants/)
- [Spark spreads](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/spark-spreads/)
- [UK](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/uk/)
- [GB](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/gb/)
- [carbon](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/carbon/)
- [coal](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/coal/)
- [European Gas](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/european-gas/)
- [European LNG](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/european-lng/)
- [TTF](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/ttf/)
- [Gas price](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/gas-price/)
- [Power Prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/power-prices/)
- [Price cap](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/price-cap/)
- [CCGT](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/ccgt/)
- [CHP](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/chp/)
- [Spain](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/spain/)
- [Spain power and gas](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/spain-power-and-gas/)
- [investment](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/investment/)
- [JKM](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/jkm/)
- [Winter2022](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/winter2022/)
- [Battery Storage](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/battery-storage/)
- [Modelling](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/modelling/)
- [Ancillary markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/ancillary-markets/)
- [Arbitrage revenue](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/arbitrage-revenue/)
- [Electricity markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/electricity-markets/)
- [Capacity Market](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/capacity-market/)
- [Flexibility](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/flexibility/)
- [National Grid](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/national-grid/)
- [Investment case](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/investment-case/)
- [UK Hydrogen Policy](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/uk-hydrogen-policy/)
- [Webinar](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/webinar/)
- [LNG Analysis](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/lng-analysis/)
- [LNG Regime Change](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/lng-regime-change/)
- [LNG Modelling](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/lng-modelling/)
- [Timera Energy LNG](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/timera-energy-lng/)
- [2022](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/2022/)
- [EnergyCrisis2022](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/energycrisis2022/)
- [EnergyFlexibility](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/energyflexibility/)
- [EuropeanGasMarket](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/europeangasmarket/)
- [EuropeanPowerMarket](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/europeanpowermarket/)
- [GB Batteries](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/gb-batteries/)
- [Battery analysis](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/battery-analysis/)
- [Commodity markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/commodity-markets/)
- [Power markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/power-markets/)
- [Gas markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/gas-markets/)
- [2023 predictions](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/2023-predictions/)
- [Nuclear energy](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/nuclear-energy/)
- [France](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/france/)
- [GB Power](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/gb-power/)
- [European Power](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/european-power/)
- [Energy Markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/energy-markets/)
- [European Coal](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/european-coal/)
- [Asian Coal](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/asian-coal/)
- [Gas](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/gas/)
- [LNG Bridge](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/lng-bridge/)
- [US LNG](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/us-lng/)
- [Asian LNG](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/asian-lng/)
- [regas](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/regas/)
- [EU regas](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/eu-regas/)
- [Carbon prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/carbon-prices/)
- [European power markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/european-power-markets/)
- [Gas switching](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/gas-switching/)
- [European power demand](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/european-power-demand/)
- [EU battery analysis](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/eu-battery-analysis/)
- [Macro](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/macro/)
- [Commodities](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/commodities/)
- [EU gas](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/eu-gas/)
- [Decarbonisation](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/decarbonisation/)
- [Investment Policy Support](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/investment-policy-support/)
- [Battery Investment](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/battery-investment/)
- [Constraint Analysis](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/constraint-analysis/)
- [Locational Analysis](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/locational-analysis/)
- [EU batteries](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/eu-batteries/)
- [Energy](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/energy/)
- [EU LNG](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/eu-lng/)
- [EU Power prices](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/eu-power-prices/)
- [eua](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/eua/)
- [fuel switching](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/fuel-switching/)
- [coal switching](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/coal-switching/)
- [Electrolysers](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/electrolysers/)
- [G7](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/g7/)
- [EU](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/eu/)
- [Gas market](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/gas-market/)
- [German Power](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/german-power/)
- [energy transition](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/energy-transition/)
- [BESS](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/bess/)
- [Winter2023](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/winter2023/)
- [CSS](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/css/)
- [engines](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/engines/)
- [Renewables](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/renewables/)
- [global commodity markets](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/global-commodity-markets/)
- [LNG market](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/lng-market/)
- [Italy](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/italy/)
- [Italy](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/italy-eu/)
- [Ireland](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/ireland/)
- [Poland](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/poland/)
- [US](https://timera-energy.com/blog-tag/us/)

## Capability Tags

- [Due diligence](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/due-diligence/)
- [Asset Valuation](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/asset-valuation/)
- [Investment targeting](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/investment-targeting/)
- [Portfolio strategy](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/portfolio-strategy/)
- [Transaction support](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/transaction-support/)
- [Asset monetisation](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/asset-monetisation/)
- [Portfolio optimisation](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/portfolio-optimisation/)
- [Offtake contracting](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/offtake-contracting/)
- [Risk management](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/risk-management/)
- [Analytics](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/analytics/)
- [S&D analysis](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/sd-analysis/)
- [Stochastic modelling](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/stochastic-modelling/)
- [Price analysis](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/price-analysis/)
- [Volatility analysis](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/volatility-analysis/)
- [Flex value drivers](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/flex-value-drivers/)
- [Batteries & storage](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/batteries-storage/)
- [Thermal plants](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/thermal-plants/)
- [Renewables + flex](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/renewables-flex/)
- [Interconnectors](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/interconnectors/)
- [Distributed flex](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/distributed-flex/)
- [Electrolysers](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/electrolysers/)
- [Hydrogen storage](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/hydrogen-storage/)
- [SMR + CCUS](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/smr-ccus/)
- [Offtake structures](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/offtake-structures/)
- [Supply chains](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/supply-chains/)
- [Supply contracts](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/supply-contracts/)
- [Regas & liquefaction](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/regas-liquefaction/)
- [Shipping](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/shipping/)
- [Storage & pipelines](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/storage-pipelines/)
- [Portfolios](https://timera-energy.com/capability-tags/portfolios/)

## Capability Types

- [Market](https://timera-energy.com/capability-type/market/)
- [Service](https://timera-energy.com/capability-type/service/)

## Case Study Types

- [Private Equity Fund](https://timera-energy.com/case-study-type/private-equity-fund/)
- [Infrastructure Fund](https://timera-energy.com/case-study-type/infrastructure-fund/)
- [LNG Portfolio Player](https://timera-energy.com/case-study-type/lng-portfolio-player/)
- [European Utility](https://timera-energy.com/case-study-type/european-utility/)
- [Large LNG Producer](https://timera-energy.com/case-study-type/large-lng-producer/)
- [Large Utility](https://timera-energy.com/case-study-type/large-utility/)
- [US gas producer](https://timera-energy.com/case-study-type/us-gas-producer/)
- [Large European TSO](https://timera-energy.com/case-study-type/large-european-tso/)
- [Large Asian Utility](https://timera-energy.com/case-study-type/large-asian-utility/)
- [Large Fund](https://timera-energy.com/case-study-type/large-fund/)
- [IPP Generator](https://timera-energy.com/case-study-type/ipp-generator/)
- [Bank](https://timera-energy.com/case-study-type/bank/)
- [Utility](https://timera-energy.com/case-study-type/utility/)
- [Global Mining Company](https://timera-energy.com/case-study-type/global-mining-company/)
- [Hydrogen Supply Chain Optimiser](https://timera-energy.com/case-study-type/hydrogen-supply-chain-optimiser/)
- [Investment Fund](https://timera-energy.com/case-study-type/investment-fund/)
- [InfraVia](https://timera-energy.com/case-study-type/infravia/)
- [Large BESS platform](https://timera-energy.com/case-study-type/large-bess-platform/)

## Publication Types

- [Briefing pack](https://timera-energy.com/publication-type/briefing-pack/)
- [European Gas Storage Value](https://timera-energy.com/publication-type/european-gas-storage-value/)
- [Briefing note](https://timera-energy.com/publication-type/briefing-note/)
- [Flame Conference Presentation](https://timera-energy.com/publication-type/flame-conference-presentation/)
- [LNG Industry](https://timera-energy.com/publication-type/lng-industry/)
- [Industry magazine](https://timera-energy.com/publication-type/industry-magazine/)
- [EAGC Conference Presentation](https://timera-energy.com/publication-type/eagc-conference-presentation/)
- [Webinar](https://timera-energy.com/publication-type/webinar/)
- [Slides](https://timera-energy.com/publication-type/slides/)
- [LNG Webinar](https://timera-energy.com/publication-type/lng-webinar/)
- [LNG Analysis](https://timera-energy.com/publication-type/lng-analysis/)
- [Battery](https://timera-energy.com/publication-type/battery/)