North African pipeline flows have been one of the few sources of price responsiveness to surging European gas hub levels in 2021, as we highlighted earlier in the year. Exports to Spain & Italy from Jan-Oct stand at 5 year highs despite a backdrop of upstream issues and waning investment.
The last month or so has introduced new dynamics at play however. The lack of a new transit deal via Morocco has seen exports to Spain via Tarifa drop to zero, though the upcoming expansion of the direct Algeria to Spain Medgaz pipeline may fill some of the gap. Exports to Italy have rebounded in October as a result, to a 5 year high of 2.2 bcm.
We will explore the latest developments in European gas market dynamics in our feature article on Monday.