Global gas prices have sold off sharply today as markets move to partially unwind the geopolitical risk premium accumulated since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February. TTF M+1 has dropped ~19% on the day to ~$14.68/MMBtu. This comes as the US and Iran strike a two-week conditional ceasefire, which includes a staged framework covering cessation of hostilities across the region and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. With Hormuz back on the table, the LNG supply disruption risk that has underpinned the Q1 rally is being rapidly repriced. Brent has moved in parallel, shedding over 13% on the day from $17.86/MMBtu to ~$15.53/MMBtu (on a parity basis), corroborating the scale of the risk premium being stripped from energy markets.
With that said, this is not a full reset for the market. TTF remains around 30% above its early-February levels of ~$11-12/MMBtu, reflecting residual risk that the ceasefire framework is fragile and that damage to regional energy infrastructure, alongside potential charges applied to transiting cargoes (e.g. elevated insurance premiums, toll fees), may constrain flows even as the Strait reopens. The durability of today’s sell-off will hinge on whether the conditional agreement holds and progresses toward a permanent settlement.
Join our upcoming webinar on this topic, “From crisis to supply wave: navigating global gas uncertainty”.
- Date & Time: Tuesday, 14th , April, 2026. 0900-0930 BST
- Registration link here
If you would like to discuss the implications of these developments for your portfolio or trading strategy, please contact David Duncan (david.duncan@timera-energy.com)