NBP has moved to an abnormally wide winter discount to TTF, driven by strong LNG inflows into Europe. Lower end-of-winter storage levels have supported TTF in recent weeks, pushing it high enough to attract a greater share of flexible LNG cargoes, as reflected in the JKM–TTF inversion.
A meaningful portion of these volumes has landed in the UK, where regas capacity remains abundant and Qatar continues to utilise long-term booking positions. Winter expectations of an NBP premium have further supported UK deliveries.
These strong LNG arrivals have coincided with milder UK temperatures and firm Norwegian inflows, limiting domestic demand. The UK balance has therefore flipped long, requiring elevated exports via the interconnectors. In contrast to the UK, continental markets can more readily absorb incremental supply through adjustments in storage withdrawal rates.
The result is an unseasonally wide NBP discount, as surplus LNG-backed length in the UK clears into a structurally tighter European system.
