LNG supply volumes departing for Europe in January 2025 reached their highest level for the same period across the 3 years, totalling ~11mtpa, compared to an average of ~9.6mtpa over 2022-2024. This increase in LNG demand has come as cold & still winter weather have driven an uptick in continental demand and storage withdrawal rates, while more imports are required to balance the loss of ~15bcm/yr of Ukrainian transit flows.
Price signals have also supported Europe’s share of global LNG exports, as TTF front-month prices have risen by 14.3 €/MWh, or 26%, since the 16th December 2024. The resultant declining JKM-TTF premium, now evaluated at -3.97 €/MWh on the 10th February, has driven several LNG cargo diversions from Asia to Europe. Moreover, the merchant value of European regas capacity has increased following a period of weak DESNWE-TTF spreads in 2024, as improving regas utilisation calls on higher variable cost terminals.
We have extensive experience in supporting clients participating in European regasification open seasons & auctions, from fundamental outlook to stochastic modelling of merchant and portfolio value of regas capacity. See case studies here & here, or get in touch with David Duncan (Director, Gas & LNG) at david.duncan@timera-energy.com for more information on our services.
