European LNG regas utilisation reached record levels in 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The sharp loss in pipeline supply saw demand response and increased LNG imports required to balance the market. Utilisation has declined since mid 2023 due to (i) weak European demand recovery (ii) strong buildout of regasification capacity.
Utilisation had fallen further to the bottom of the 2018-2021 range in July 2024 (down 27% YoY, 42% vs July 2022) as storage levels hit 90% and industrial demand remains weak heading into winter.
Geopolitical tensions continue to install supply threat to the market (seen in the recent TTF rally), though with limited impact on fundamentals yet as transit gas through Ukraine sees no disruption.
The bullish TTF price has helped to divert more cargoes to Europe in August, resulting in an uptick in European LNG sendout over the past week. This has helped to ease the market as TTF drops from the highs of €40/MWh earlier in the month.