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2 Dec 2024

Italian BESS investment to surge in 2025

2 min

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“Italy offers 4 BESS investment models”

Our feature content this week is video based. You can meet some of the Timera power team in a recording of our recent webinar “MACSE strategy” focused on key Italian BESS investment case drivers & commercial strategy for MACSE & the Capacity Market.

Click here for the slide pack from the webinar.

Click here to watch the webinar video recording.

Interested in some of the content covered? Here is a taster of a couple of excerpts from the webinar:

BESS investment model structures in Italy

We discuss the challenges facing investors as they look to build bankable BESS investment cases via (i) MACSE and (ii) Capacity Market routes, including:

  • 4 key BESS investment models
  • Targeting risk/return profiles
  • The importance of merchant tranches to support a viable return
  • Why the Capacity Market is a better route than MACSE for some assets

We illustrate different investment route options (Chart 1) and their impact on risk / return & financing. We also discuss the key drivers of MACSE bidding strategy (Chart 2).

Chart 1: Revenues & risk from different case study investment models

Source: Timera

Chart 2: Revenues & risk from different case study investment models

Source: Timera

How is the Italian BESS revenue stack evolving

We discuss key drivers of Italian BESS revenue capture across the last 2 years including:

  • Day-ahead price spreads
  • Intraday & ancillary (MSD) changes
  • Zonal differences in revenues.

We also set out a revenue backtest as shown in Chart 3, assuming optimal optimisation of asset trading strategy based on historical price data.

Chart 3: Evolution of Italy South BESS revenue stack (2 hr duration asset)

Source: Timera BESS dispatch optimisation model

We also discuss how the Capacity Market price cap and policy changes are impacting Italian market price evolution & BESS value capture (see Chart 4), and how the MACSE is going to contribute to such evolution.

Chart 4: Changing distributions of Italian power price evolution

Source: Timera, GME, ARERA

Click on the link at the start of the article to view the webinar.

If you are interested in a sample copy of our Italian BESS Investment Report, feel free to contact Alessio Cunico (Senior Analyst) alessio.cunico@timera-energy.com or Steven Coppack (Power Director) steven.coppack@timera-energy.com.

Italian BESS investment to surge in 2025