The UK requires significant wind capacity growth in order to reach challenging 2030 & 2035 decarbonisation targets. This renewable rollout comes with challenges however, with the grid already required to cope with periods of wind generation above 14 GW, and below 1 GW. Low wind events (which are often synchronised across NW Europe) have been driving prices upwards in an already high price environment, with only 3 GW of average wind generation coinciding with a NatGrid electricity capacity market notice called on 24th Jan (the shaded grey area on the chart) and a £110/MWh day on day increase in DA prices.
Having a robust stochastic modelling approach that captures the market & asset value impacts of increasing volatility from intermittent renewables is set to become increasingly important.