Since EDF revised the 2020 nuclear output assumption higher at the end of Q3 to 325-335 TWh, nuclear generation has recovered into the recent historical range supporting a reconvergence of French power prices with other NW European markets. While December may well continue this trend, risks to lower output continue into 2021 with a currently low annual output assumption of 330-360 TWh. This has led the French TSO to warn of ‘record low’ availability this winter, with lows of 40 GW possible by the end of February as Covid induced maintenance issues continue.
French nuclear output recovery set to stall in Q1-21