Topic: “The next frontier” – The drivers behind a surge in German battery investment

Time & access: Tues 28th Nov 09:00 GMT (10:00 CET, 16:00 SGT)

Registration: Pre-registration required (access is free); webinar registration link – register here

Focus:

1. Fundamental value drivers (e.g. RES growth, thermal retirements)
2. DE BESS revenue stack breakdown & backtest
3. How the within-day market is driving value capture
4. Financing & offtake structures
5. Key policy & investment risks

Any Qs please contact steven.coppack@timera-energy.com

We are seeing a strong increase in client demand for our service, as the energy transition and focus on flexibility gathers pace. As a result we are actively looking to expand our team by recruiting both Analysts and Senior Analysts.

We are looking for people with strong commercial, analytical & problem solving skills to join our vibrant team. Our packages are very competitive and we have a strong focus on work / life balance. If you are interested in more details see Working with Timera.

Click here for a description of the roles we are looking to fill:

1. Senior Analyst – Power focus
2. Senior Analyst – Gas focus
3. Analyst – Commercial focus

If you are interested, please send a CV to recruitment@timera-energy.com

We have just published our H2 2023 Timera Global Gas Report with comprehensive analysis of the evolution of the LNG & European gas markets. The Report covers:

1. Market state of play – analysis of current state of play in the LNG & European gas markets (vs history)
2. Timera projections – Our modelling of the evolution of global market supply & demand balance to 2040
3. Market flex – Our modelling of evolution of S&D flex & market regimes that drive prices (e.g. JKM, TTF, HH)
4. Pricing dynamics – Our analysis of marginal pricing dynamics (e.g. spreads, volatility & correlation)
5. Value drivers – Commercial conclusions on the impact of market evolution on gas portfolio value & risk

This Report forms part of our recently launched quarterly subscription service. For a free sample copy of the report you can contact David Duncan (Director of LNG & Gas) david.duncan@timera-energy.com .

Topic: “A new lens” – how shifting pricing dynamics are set to drive LNG portfolio value

Time & access: Tues 17th Oct 09:00 BST (10:00 CET, 16:00 SGT)

Registration: Pre-registration required (access is free); webinar registration link – register here

Scope:

1. Market regime shift set up from 2024 into 2030s
2. Marginal drivers of regional price spread evolution (e.g. HH vs TTF vs JKM)
3. Evolution of price volatility & correlation + value impact
4. Why crude vs gas pricing is set to be a big LNG portfolio value driver
5. Brent SPA case study quantifying valuation breakdown

Any Qs please contact david.duncan@timera-energy.com

David Duncan (Director of LNG & Gas) will be speaking at Gastech 2023 in Singapore, on 5th September.

Please get in touch with David (david.duncan@timera-energy.com) if you would like to catch up on the services Timera Energy provide, LNG Bridge, our quarterly Global Gas Service or anything else.

Speaking slot:

• Tuesday 5th September
• 14:45-15:45
• Managing short-term market dynamics
• “New market regime a game changer for LNG portfolio strategy”

We have recently launched a quarterly Global Gas Service.  A quick summary:

• Detailed analysis, quantifying evolution of:

1. Market supply & demand balance
2. Pricing dynamics
3. Asset value impact & conclusions

• Comprehensive quarterly projection dataset & chartbook
• Detailed slide-based report
• Direct access to our experts

For more details see our brochure here.

You can also contact David Duncan – Gas & LNG Director (david.duncan@timera-energy.com) or Olly Spinks – Managing Director (olly.spinks@timera-energy.com).

Topic: “What next?” – a framework for analysing LNG market evolution & portfolio value drivers in a post-crisis world

Time & access: Wed 14th Jun 09:00 BST (10:00 CET, 16:00 SGT)

Registration: Pre-registration required (access is free); webinar registration link – register here

Scope:

• Market regime framework for price evolution to 2035
• Downside risks e.g. 2023 and 2026-28 vs potential re-tightening e.g. 2024-25
• How marginal pricing dynamics are shifting post-crisis (e.g. JKM vs TTF vs DES NWE)
• Why price volatility is structurally increasing
• Implications of new market dynamics for LNG portfolio value (e.g. US tolls, regas, shipping)

Any Qs please contact david.duncan@timera-energy.com

European battery investment webinar on April 20th 2023

Topic: “Targeting EU battery value” – revenue stack, opportunities & challenges for BESS investors across EU

Time & access: Thurs 20^th Apr (2-3pm BST, 15-16 CET), free to attend

Registration: Pre-registration required (access is free); webinar registration link – register here

Scope:

• Ranking BESS investment potential across EU markets
• BESS revenue stack structure (energy arbitrage, ancillaries, capacity)
• Evolution of key price signals & revenue drivers
• Investment challenges (e.g. policy, network charging)
• Key BESS investment case drivers
• Q&A section

Any Qs please contact steven.coppack@timera-energy.com

A round up of interesting Timera client work this year, that provides an insight into where flex asset investors and owners are focusing:

• EU batteries: High price volatility and ancillary service market reform (e.g. aFRR) drove a big increase in clients engaging us to support BESS investment across Western Europe. Key focus markets this year: Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Italy & Spain.
• GB batteries: Capital deployment by GE BESS developers so far remains a level above EU markets. We have also seen a rapid pick up in transaction work driven by BESS portfolio aggregation & new entrants looking to acquire sites (given connection access constraints).
• Hydrogen: We have seen a strong client shift in 2022 to focus on specific project investment case development as policy support take shape. Optimisation of site design is a key focus e.g. sizing & flex of electrolyser, storage & offtake.
• LNG portfolio construction: Europe’s pivot to LNG has driven strong client engagement for us to provide contract & portfolio valuation analysis. Key focus areas are new SPAs (US flex focus), regas capacity additions & re-negotiation of contract structures / pricing.
• EU regas & midstream: We have seen a specific client focus on investment in EU regas capacity. This has been both supporting clients understand the value impact of buying capacity & supporting developers structure offtake options.
• Peaking flex: We continue to work with peaking asset owners & investors on analysing market & asset margin dynamics.  We have also worked with several clients on retrofitting & repowering peakers with hydrogen in the 2030s.
• Colocation: We have done a number of engagements on BESS sizing and revenue stack impact of colocation (both wind & solar). RES investors are also increasingly asking us to analyse diversification benefits of adding BESS to RES portfolios.
• Transactions: Our commercial due diligence & valuation support this year included BESS portfolios across GB, Benelux, Italy & Spain (several with RES colocation focus). We also supported major LNG portfolio & midstream gas processes. Thermal power transactions were quieter relative to previous years.

Topic: “Beyond ancillaries” – structural shift in GB battery revenue stack from ancillaries to energy arbitrage

Time & access: 14:00-15:00 BST, 15:00-16:00 CET; free access

Registration: Pre-registration required (access is free); register here.

Scope:

• Evidence of ancillary service revenue saturation (DC, FFR)
• Surging ‘energy arbitrage’ price signals (intraday price shape & volatility)
• Growing importance of Balancing Mechanism in driving BESS revenues
• Backtesting analysis of GB BESS asset revenue capture (2018-22)
• State of play: key BESS investment case drivers & risks

Any Qs please contact steven.coppack@timera-energy.com.