Timera client work H1 2021

16 Jul 2021

A round up of interesting Timera client work from H1 2021:

 

  • LNG Bridge: Our LNG Bridge model is quickly evolving into a market leading solution for LNG portfolio valuation & optimisation. We continue to implement & develop the model across a range of large LNG players including oil & gas majors, producers, utilities and portfolio players.
  • Batteries: Momentum behind our battery investment work has continued into 2021. While 2020 work was mostly UK focused, this has broadened out in 2021 to include Italy, Spain and NW Europe. Colocated battery projects in Southern Europe has been the biggest growth area.
  • Transactions: We have supported four large power asset portfolio transactions so far this year. These have covered commercial due diligence support for acquisition of thermal, hydro, wind & solar assets, as well as market analysis and stochastic asset valuation.
  • Market access & trading: Route to market & trading services are becoming increasingly important as funds acquire power portfolios. We have been advising several companies on structuring & negotiation of route to market & trading services, covering CCGT, battery hydro and wind assets.
  • Hydrogen: We are now deep into analysis of electrolyser investment economics. This has seen a big step forward in our hydrogen modelling tool kit which we are enhancing as we support clients deploy capital into live projects.
  • Midstream gas: Our midstream gas work with clients has been focused on the impact of changing Russian & LNG flow patterns on the value of pipeline & storage assets. We are also seeing a sharp increase in focus on midstream asset flex value & utilisation as decarbonisation ramps up into the 2030s.

The common theme across all of this work is the flexibility required to decarbonise energy markets.

Introducing LNG Bridge

6 Mar 2021

Our LNG Bridge model continues to gain traction as an industry leading solution for LNG portfolio analysis. Our client base includes:

  1. Oil & gas major: Implementation as global portfolio valuation modelling solution to support value growth.
  2. Portfolio player: Commercial & risk team implementation to analyse value & risk of existing LNG portfolio & new deals.
  3. Large producer: Implementation as global portfolio solution e.g. to analyse spot vs SPA sales strategy & sizing of vessel capacity.
  4. Utility: Used to support valuation of large LNG portfolio to support binding bid.
  5. Trader: Supported valuation for acquisition of portfolio of European regas & SPA contracts.

We have just released an Introduction to LNG Bridge if you are interested in finding out more. You can also see Bridge at work analysing the value of a flexible LNG contract in a recent blog article.

Timera client work 2020

7 Dec 2020

A round up of interesting Timera client work from 2020:

 

  • Batteries: 2020 has seen a surge in battery investment work, particularly in the UK and Italy. At the risk of blowing our own trumpet, we are consistently receiving feedback that we have the market leading battery valuation capability.
  • LNG Bridge: We have continued to implement and use our LNG Bridge portfolio valuation model across a range of large LNG players including oil & gas majors, utilities and commodity traders.
  • Hydrogen: Our biggest growth area in 2020 has been advising on investment in hydrogen supply chain flexibility and the impact of this on European gas & power markets.
  • Decarbonisation: We have been evolving and using our integrated European gas, power and LNG market modelling framework to understand the impact of decarbonisation on flex asset value, particularly for gas portfolio owners on midstream asset value.
  • Renewables + flex: Several large renewable portfolios have engaged us to quantify the risk diversification benefits of adding batteries & engines to solar and wind portfolios.
  • Midstream gas: We are working with pipeline & storage owners to analyse the value impact of changing gas flex requirement and flow patterns across Europe as LNG imports, Russian flows and decarbonisation reshape gas market dynamics.
  • Transactions: We have been engaged for buy side commercial & valuation support by investors bidding on LNG portfolios, gas-fired power plants, gas pipelines, batteries & renewables.

The common theme across all of this work is the flexibility required to decarbonise energy markets.

Timera team expands

1 Oct 2020

David Duncan joins Timera as an Analyst from RWE Supply & Trading and Steven Coppack has been promoted to Director.

David joins our analyst team bringing practical industry experience of commercial analysis & optimisation from RWE. Five things to know about David and his background.

Since joining Timera, Steven has lead work with clients including Green Investment Group, Sembcorp, Bluefield and Intergen.  As a Director, Steven will be focused on leading & developing Timera’s power market services including providing advice & analysis on flexible asset investment, value monetisation and power market evolution.

LNG portfolio value – Timera in print

23 Sep 2020

Strong LNG market growth (around 10% a year across 2016-19) is driving the rapid evolution of LNG portfolios.  Large producers such as Shell, BP and Total are expanding their value-chain presence. Trading focused intermediaries including Gunvor, Vitol and Trafigura are driving liquidity growth and evolution of the traded market. And major buyers like Japan’s Jera, South Korea’s Kogas and Singapore’s Pavilion are expanding their portfolio footprints and developing commercial capabilities or joint ventures to support this growth.

LNG portfolio value creation is underpinned by the ability to quantify incremental value from adding new assets, contracts and hedging strategies. A successful modelling framework can be the ‘engine room’ of portfolio value growth. Timera has published an article in Petroleum Economist in Sep 2020 that looks at LNG portfolio value creation and the development of an analytical capability to support it.

Timera is recruiting

18 Jun 2020

We are looking for Analysts to join our team, given strong growth in demand for our services in 2020. As momentum behind the energy transition and the role of flexibility gathers pace we are actively expanding our analyst capability.  We are looking to recruit Analysts with 1-4 years energy industry experience.  For more details and a role specification see Working with Timera.

2020 Timera project focus & Covid-19

13 May 2020

Our client project work in 2020 provides a useful ‘cross section’ insight into current issues driving energy markets. The impact of Covid-19 has emerged as a key factor since Mar-20. But we have been surprised how little disruption Covid-19 has had on key structural trends. What  has been the focus of our client engagements so far this year?

Click here to see a summary

Timera’s ‘Flex to decarbonise’ briefing pack

2 Mar 2020

We set out analysis that shows a major capacity deficit opening up across European power market over the next 3 years. Despite increasingly rapid renewables build, parallel closures of nuclear and coal plants see the capacity deficit rise to at least 60GW by 2030.

Our modelling shows an investment requirement in 4 key types of flexibility.  We estimate investment of at least €25bn by 2025 and €55 bn by 2030 is needed to maintain security of supply.

For more information click here to download the briefing pack.

Timera launches LNG Bridge model

14 Feb 2020

We have developed a sophisticated LNG portfolio valuation model for our client base of LNG portfolio players. The LNG Bridge model enables intrinsic & extrinsic analysis of investment options, hedging & contracting strategies.

Timera has been engaged by a number of leading LNG companies to deliver LNG portfolio analysis & modelling solutions. These include Cheniere, PetroChina, Qatargas, Glencore & Novatek. LNG Bridge is a configurable & modular stochastic simulation based portfolio valuation model. It produces risk/return and value distribution analysis of complex LNG portfolios over a 3 month to 20 year horizon.

For more information click here for a briefing pack.

Rosie Read joins Timera as a Director

19 Jan 2020

We are delighted to announce another Timera senior hire with Rosie Read joining our team as a Director.  She will have co-responsibility for leading our London based team of analysts. 

Rosie is an expert in operations research (OR) techniques and their application to the energy industry. She has strong practical commercial experience in the utility sector, covering market design & regulation, developing strategic market models, investment analysis, hydro-optimisation, trading and market operations.

Find out more about Rosie here