Topic: “A new lens” – how shifting pricing dynamics are set to drive LNG portfolio value

Time & access: Tues 17th Oct 09:00 BST (10:00 CET, 16:00 SGT)

Registration: Pre-registration required (access is free); webinar registration link – register here

Scope:

1. Market regime shift set up from 2024 into 2030s
2. Marginal drivers of regional price spread evolution (e.g. HH vs TTF vs JKM)
3. Evolution of price volatility & correlation + value impact
4. Why crude vs gas pricing is set to be a big LNG portfolio value driver
5. Brent SPA case study quantifying valuation breakdown

Any Qs please contact david.duncan@timera-energy.com

David Duncan (Director of LNG & Gas) will be speaking at Gastech 2023 in Singapore, on 5th September.

Please get in touch with David (david.duncan@timera-energy.com) if you would like to catch up on the services Timera Energy provide, LNG Bridge, our quarterly Global Gas Service or anything else.

Speaking slot:

• Tuesday 5th September
• 14:45-15:45
• Managing short-term market dynamics
• “New market regime a game changer for LNG portfolio strategy”

We have recently launched a quarterly Global Gas Service.  A quick summary:

• Detailed analysis, quantifying evolution of:

1. Market supply & demand balance
2. Pricing dynamics
3. Asset value impact & conclusions

• Comprehensive quarterly projection dataset & chartbook
• Detailed slide-based report
• Direct access to our experts

For more details see our brochure here.

You can also contact David Duncan – Gas & LNG Director (david.duncan@timera-energy.com) or Olly Spinks – Managing Director (olly.spinks@timera-energy.com).

Topic: “What next?” – a framework for analysing LNG market evolution & portfolio value drivers in a post-crisis world

Time & access: Wed 14th Jun 09:00 BST (10:00 CET, 16:00 SGT)

Registration: Pre-registration required (access is free); webinar registration link – register here

Scope:

• Market regime framework for price evolution to 2035
• Downside risks e.g. 2023 and 2026-28 vs potential re-tightening e.g. 2024-25
• How marginal pricing dynamics are shifting post-crisis (e.g. JKM vs TTF vs DES NWE)
• Why price volatility is structurally increasing
• Implications of new market dynamics for LNG portfolio value (e.g. US tolls, regas, shipping)

Any Qs please contact david.duncan@timera-energy.com

European battery investment webinar on April 20th 2023

Topic: “Targeting EU battery value” – revenue stack, opportunities & challenges for BESS investors across EU

Time & access: Thurs 20^th Apr (2-3pm BST, 15-16 CET), free to attend

Registration: Pre-registration required (access is free); webinar registration link – register here

Scope:

• Ranking BESS investment potential across EU markets
• BESS revenue stack structure (energy arbitrage, ancillaries, capacity)
• Evolution of key price signals & revenue drivers
• Investment challenges (e.g. policy, network charging)
• Key BESS investment case drivers
• Q&A section

Any Qs please contact steven.coppack@timera-energy.com

A round up of interesting Timera client work this year, that provides an insight into where flex asset investors and owners are focusing:

• EU batteries: High price volatility and ancillary service market reform (e.g. aFRR) drove a big increase in clients engaging us to support BESS investment across Western Europe. Key focus markets this year: Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Italy & Spain.
• GB batteries: Capital deployment by GE BESS developers so far remains a level above EU markets. We have also seen a rapid pick up in transaction work driven by BESS portfolio aggregation & new entrants looking to acquire sites (given connection access constraints).
• Hydrogen: We have seen a strong client shift in 2022 to focus on specific project investment case development as policy support take shape. Optimisation of site design is a key focus e.g. sizing & flex of electrolyser, storage & offtake.
• LNG portfolio construction: Europe’s pivot to LNG has driven strong client engagement for us to provide contract & portfolio valuation analysis. Key focus areas are new SPAs (US flex focus), regas capacity additions & re-negotiation of contract structures / pricing.
• EU regas & midstream: We have seen a specific client focus on investment in EU regas capacity. This has been both supporting clients understand the value impact of buying capacity & supporting developers structure offtake options.
• Peaking flex: We continue to work with peaking asset owners & investors on analysing market & asset margin dynamics.  We have also worked with several clients on retrofitting & repowering peakers with hydrogen in the 2030s.
• Colocation: We have done a number of engagements on BESS sizing and revenue stack impact of colocation (both wind & solar). RES investors are also increasingly asking us to analyse diversification benefits of adding BESS to RES portfolios.
• Transactions: Our commercial due diligence & valuation support this year included BESS portfolios across GB, Benelux, Italy & Spain (several with RES colocation focus). We also supported major LNG portfolio & midstream gas processes. Thermal power transactions were quieter relative to previous years.

Topic: “Beyond ancillaries” – structural shift in GB battery revenue stack from ancillaries to energy arbitrage

Time & access: 14:00-15:00 BST, 15:00-16:00 CET; free access

Registration: Pre-registration required (access is free); register here.

Scope:

• Evidence of ancillary service revenue saturation (DC, FFR)
• Surging ‘energy arbitrage’ price signals (intraday price shape & volatility)
• Growing importance of Balancing Mechanism in driving BESS revenues
• Backtesting analysis of GB BESS asset revenue capture (2018-22)
• State of play: key BESS investment case drivers & risks

Any Qs please contact steven.coppack@timera-energy.com.

Topic: “Regime change” – Impact of a new market regime on LNG portfolio value

Time & access: 8am GMT (9am CET, 4pm SST); free access

Registration: Pre-registration required (access is free); register here.

Scope:

• Supply & demand balance impact of European pivot from Russian gas to LNG
• Resulting shift in market pricing dynamics (e.g. price levels, marginal price setting, volatility)
• Implications for LNG portfolio construction (e.g. role of Europe, new supply, value of flexibility)
• Implications for portfolio value management (e.g. European access, shift to ‘within portfolio’ optimisation)
• Impact on risk management (e.g. portfolio hedging; credit risk & collateral issues)

Any Qs please contact david.duncan@timera-energy.com.

Building on our work servicing a broad range of Europe’s leading battery investors we have launched a GB battery investment subscription service.

This covers:

1. A Battery Investment Tool populated with latest projections of revenue stack, opex & capex to 2050 covering full range of GB BESS configurations / locations (Quarterly updated)
2. Timera Battery Reports with detailed up to date analysis of market & asset value drivers (Bi-annual)
3. ‘One on one’ workshops with Timera’s team of storage experts to review & challenge Tool & Report (Bi-annual)

Click here for a brochure with further details of the service.

We are excited to announce another two new Timera team members starting in Jan 2022.

Katherine Daman joins us from National Grid where she worked on the Energy Trading desk managing UK power system & energy requirements.

Selina Paxton joins us from Noriker Power where she was an Energy Trader and Analyst focused on optimisation & commercial analysis of UK battery storage assets.

Both Katherine & Selina bring strong backgrounds in energy market & commercial analysis. We are continuing to grow our team by hiring outstanding people who have practical industry experience.

You can read more about Katherine & Selina’s backgrounds here.