Topic: “What next?” – a framework for analysing LNG market evolution & portfolio value drivers in a post-crisis world

Time & access: Wed 14th Jun 09:00 BST (10:00 CET, 16:00 SGT)

Registration: Pre-registration required (access is free); webinar registration link – register here

Scope:

• Market regime framework for price evolution to 2035
• Downside risks e.g. 2023 and 2026-28 vs potential re-tightening e.g. 2024-25
• How marginal pricing dynamics are shifting post-crisis (e.g. JKM vs TTF vs DES NWE)
• Why price volatility is structurally increasing
• Implications of new market dynamics for LNG portfolio value (e.g. US tolls, regas, shipping)

Any Qs please contact david.duncan@timera-energy.com

European battery investment webinar on April 20th 2023

Topic: “Targeting EU battery value” – revenue stack, opportunities & challenges for BESS investors across EU

Time & access: Thurs 20^th Apr (2-3pm BST, 15-16 CET), free to attend

Registration: Pre-registration required (access is free); webinar registration link – register here

Scope:

• Ranking BESS investment potential across EU markets
• BESS revenue stack structure (energy arbitrage, ancillaries, capacity)
• Evolution of key price signals & revenue drivers
• Investment challenges (e.g. policy, network charging)
• Key BESS investment case drivers
• Q&A section

Any Qs please contact steven.coppack@timera-energy.com

A round up of interesting Timera client work this year, that provides an insight into where flex asset investors and owners are focusing:

• EU batteries: High price volatility and ancillary service market reform (e.g. aFRR) drove a big increase in clients engaging us to support BESS investment across Western Europe. Key focus markets this year: Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Italy & Spain.
• GB batteries: Capital deployment by GE BESS developers so far remains a level above EU markets. We have also seen a rapid pick up in transaction work driven by BESS portfolio aggregation & new entrants looking to acquire sites (given connection access constraints).
• Hydrogen: We have seen a strong client shift in 2022 to focus on specific project investment case development as policy support take shape. Optimisation of site design is a key focus e.g. sizing & flex of electrolyser, storage & offtake.
• LNG portfolio construction: Europe’s pivot to LNG has driven strong client engagement for us to provide contract & portfolio valuation analysis. Key focus areas are new SPAs (US flex focus), regas capacity additions & re-negotiation of contract structures / pricing.
• EU regas & midstream: We have seen a specific client focus on investment in EU regas capacity. This has been both supporting clients understand the value impact of buying capacity & supporting developers structure offtake options.
• Peaking flex: We continue to work with peaking asset owners & investors on analysing market & asset margin dynamics.  We have also worked with several clients on retrofitting & repowering peakers with hydrogen in the 2030s.
• Colocation: We have done a number of engagements on BESS sizing and revenue stack impact of colocation (both wind & solar). RES investors are also increasingly asking us to analyse diversification benefits of adding BESS to RES portfolios.
• Transactions: Our commercial due diligence & valuation support this year included BESS portfolios across GB, Benelux, Italy & Spain (several with RES colocation focus). We also supported major LNG portfolio & midstream gas processes. Thermal power transactions were quieter relative to previous years.

Topic: “Beyond ancillaries” – structural shift in GB battery revenue stack from ancillaries to energy arbitrage

Time & access: 14:00-15:00 BST, 15:00-16:00 CET; free access

Registration: Pre-registration required (access is free); register here.

Scope:

• Evidence of ancillary service revenue saturation (DC, FFR)
• Surging ‘energy arbitrage’ price signals (intraday price shape & volatility)
• Growing importance of Balancing Mechanism in driving BESS revenues
• Backtesting analysis of GB BESS asset revenue capture (2018-22)
• State of play: key BESS investment case drivers & risks

Any Qs please contact steven.coppack@timera-energy.com.

Topic: “Regime change” – Impact of a new market regime on LNG portfolio value

Time & access: 8am GMT (9am CET, 4pm SST); free access

Registration: Pre-registration required (access is free); register here.

Scope:

• Supply & demand balance impact of European pivot from Russian gas to LNG
• Resulting shift in market pricing dynamics (e.g. price levels, marginal price setting, volatility)
• Implications for LNG portfolio construction (e.g. role of Europe, new supply, value of flexibility)
• Implications for portfolio value management (e.g. European access, shift to ‘within portfolio’ optimisation)
• Impact on risk management (e.g. portfolio hedging; credit risk & collateral issues)

Any Qs please contact david.duncan@timera-energy.com.

Building on our work servicing a broad range of Europe’s leading battery investors we have launched a GB battery investment subscription service.

This covers:

1. A Battery Investment Tool populated with latest projections of revenue stack, opex & capex to 2050 covering full range of GB BESS configurations / locations (Quarterly updated)
2. Timera Battery Reports with detailed up to date analysis of market & asset value drivers (Bi-annual)
3. ‘One on one’ workshops with Timera’s team of storage experts to review & challenge Tool & Report (Bi-annual)

Click here for a brochure with further details of the service.

We are excited to announce another two new Timera team members starting in Jan 2022.

Katherine Daman joins us from National Grid where she worked on the Energy Trading desk managing UK power system & energy requirements.

Selina Paxton joins us from Noriker Power where she was an Energy Trader and Analyst focused on optimisation & commercial analysis of UK battery storage assets.

Both Katherine & Selina bring strong backgrounds in energy market & commercial analysis. We are continuing to grow our team by hiring outstanding people who have practical industry experience.

You can read more about Katherine & Selina’s backgrounds here.

A round up of interesting Timera client work this year, that provides an insight into where flex asset investors and owners are focusing:

• Batteries & storage: We have supported more than 1GW of UK battery investment projects this year, with the UK continuing to lead European deployment. But we have also seen a jump in projects in Italy & Spain (mostly collocated) as well as some in NW Europe. Interest in long duration storage is also growing fast.
• Hydrogen: Our investment work supporting hydrogen electrolyser and storage projects has grown fast. This has been supported by the evolution of our stochastic electrolyser modelling framework, inte
• LNG Bridge: Our LNG Bridge model is quickly evolving into a market leading solution for LNG portfolio valuation & optimisation. We continue to implement & use the model across a range of large LNG players including gas majors, producers, utilities & commodity traders.
• Peaking flex: We have been working with both peaking asset owners & investors to understand the impact of rapidly changing flex price signals on asset value.   
• Renewables + flex: We have continued to support renewable investors analyse the value & risk diversification impact of adding flexible assets to portfolios (e.g. batteries, electrolysers).
• Transactions: We continue to support buy-side investors with commercial due diligence & valuation work. In 2021 that has included bids for large hydro-electric & thermal asset portfolios, a renewables + battery portfolio,  LNG portfolios & SPAs, a large gas storage asset and an energy trading business (+ offtake contracts).

The common theme across all of this work is the flexibility required to decarbonise energy markets.

A round up of interesting Timera client work from H1 2021:

• LNG Bridge: Our LNG Bridge model is quickly evolving into a market leading solution for LNG portfolio valuation & optimisation. We continue to implement & develop the model across a range of large LNG players including oil & gas majors, producers, utilities and portfolio players.
• Batteries: Momentum behind our battery investment work has continued into 2021. While 2020 work was mostly UK focused, this has broadened out in 2021 to include Italy, Spain and NW Europe. Colocated battery projects in Southern Europe has been the biggest growth area.
• Transactions: We have supported four large power asset portfolio transactions so far this year. These have covered commercial due diligence support for acquisition of thermal, hydro, wind & solar assets, as well as market analysis and stochastic asset valuation.
• Market access & trading: Route to market & trading services are becoming increasingly important as funds acquire power portfolios. We have been advising several companies on structuring & negotiation of route to market & trading services, covering CCGT, battery hydro and wind assets.
• Hydrogen: We are now deep into analysis of electrolyser investment economics. This has seen a big step forward in our hydrogen modelling tool kit which we are enhancing as we support clients deploy capital into live projects.
• Midstream gas: Our midstream gas work with clients has been focused on the impact of changing Russian & LNG flow patterns on the value of pipeline & storage assets. We are also seeing a sharp increase in focus on midstream asset flex value & utilisation as decarbonisation ramps up into the 2030s.

The common theme across all of this work is the flexibility required to decarbonise energy markets.

Our LNG Bridge model continues to gain traction as an industry leading solution for LNG portfolio analysis. Our client base includes:

1. Oil & gas major: Implementation as global portfolio valuation modelling solution to support value growth.
2. Portfolio player: Commercial & risk team implementation to analyse value & risk of existing LNG portfolio & new deals.
3. Large producer: Implementation as global portfolio solution e.g. to analyse spot vs SPA sales strategy & sizing of vessel capacity.
4. Utility: Used to support valuation of large LNG portfolio to support binding bid.
5. Trader: Supported valuation for acquisition of portfolio of European regas & SPA contracts.

We have just released an Introduction to LNG Bridge if you are interested in finding out more. You can also see Bridge at work analysing the value of a flexible LNG contract in a recent blog article.