Russian gas imports fall sharply in 2020
Russian flows via the 3 main routes (Yamal, Ukraine, Nordstream) for Q1 dropped by 11bcm or 25% vs Q119, driven by a drop in deliveries via Ukraine. This drop coincided with the start of Turkstream flows in early January. We estimate Turkstream flows of approx 27mcm/d to Turkey and Europe so far in 2020. This explains only part of the drop in total Russian exports via existing routes. Another piece of the puzzle relates to Gazprom withdrawing gas in Q1 that was stored last summer as insurance against disruption of Ukraine transit. It will be interesting to see as 2020 unfolds to what extent there may also be Russian flow reduction in response to historically low prices.