Prompt prices have remained somewhat volatile through 2024 and year-to-date, relative to pre-crisis norms. However, as we highlighted in a recent blog, European CTGS and Asian OTGS has provided a stabilising anchor through summer 2025, helping to contain price swings despite broader macro uncertainty.
The TTF forward curve has through this period shown a consistent backwardation. This pricing structure reflects market expectations of growing LNG supply and an associated shift in market regime as we approach summer 2026.
The scale of this backwardation has evolved considerably over the past year. This reflects upcoming winter balance risks, such as uncertainty on European stock levels, the pace of new supply growth (given delay risks) and the prospects for a recovery in Chinese LNG demand. This uncertainty in turn leads to repricing further down the curve.
Summer 2027 prices though have remained remarkably rangebound, holding within a €25–30/MWh window for the past 18 months. This stability suggests the market is confident that sufficient incremental supply will be online by this period to somewhat dampen volatility and upwards price risk further down the curve.
The scale of price reversion across 2026-27 will be driven in large part by Asian LNG demand responsiveness. Timera’s Director of LNG & Gas, David Duncan, will explore this in more detail in his presentation at Gastech in Milan next week on ‘Absorbing the new supply wave’ (14:00 CET Tue). If you are at Gastech feel free to reach out to David (david.duncan@timera-energy.com) or come and drop by our stand (Hall 5, Stand D136).
