The North American LNG supply wave continues to gain momentum in 2026 following FIDs from CP2 Phase 2 (10 mtpa, Venture Global) and Commonwealth LNG (9.4 mtpa, Caturus). Timera anticipate a further 21.5 mtpa of LNG export capacity to take FID this year, all in North America. A market once dominated by the Middle East and Australia has been transformed over the last 15 years. North American capacity made up 87% of global FIDs in 2025 and is now expected to make up 100% in 2026.
This wave of new supply is landing into a market that remains supply constrained. Even before the recent conflict in the Middle East, spreads between Asian and European hub prices and North American gas were significant. But the scale of incoming supply has pushed the JKM and TTF curves into steep backwardation — the CY 2027 JKM contract is trading at ~$13.34/mmbtu, CY 2029 at ~$9.00/mmbtu. Rapidly growing gas demand in Asia, particularly across emerging markets in South and Southeast Asia, are key to absorbing the new volumes.
For further insight, please contact our LNG & Gas Director David Duncan david.duncan@timera-energy.com.