Russia has turned the gas taps down
Gazprom has been very successful in boosting gas exports to Europe across the 2017-2019 period. This came at a cost in 2019 as high Russian flows and large volumes of surplus LNG coincided, driving European hub prices ~50% lower across the year. Europe has absorbed large volumes of surplus LNG again in 2020, but Gazprom’s strategy has changed. The chart shows a substantial year on year decline in Russian imports so far in 2020, mostly via the Ukraine/Slovak swing route. We are watching closely to see if Russian flows follow prices higher as the Covid recovery takes hold.